Kacper Szulecki

Russian nuclear energy diplomacy and its implications for energy security in the context of the war in Ukraine

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the possibility of reducing Europe’s energy dependence on Russian resources has been hotly debated. The fossil fuel industries received most attention as European Union leaders first introduced gradual sanctions on Russian coal and later on oil and gas, while Russia responded with supply cuts. However, Russia’s role as a major player in the global nuclear power sector has remained largely below the sanctions radar, despite dependencies on Russian nuclear technology, uranium supplies and handling of spent nuclear fuel. Here we analyse the state nuclear company Rosatom and its subsidiaries as tools of Russian energy statecraft. We map the company’s global portfolio, then categorize countries where Russia is active according to the degree and intensity of dependence. We offer a taxonomy of long-term energy dependencies, highlighting specific security risks associated with each of them. We conclude that the war and Russia’s actions in the energy sector will undermine Rosatom’s position in Europe and damage its reputation as a reliable supplier, but its global standing may remain strong.

More than just a petrol station: Norway's contribution to European Union's green strategic autonomy

The past five years have seen far-reaching changes in international politics and trade, all of which forced European policymakers to reconsider the role and place of the ‘Old World’ in global affairs. The continuous rise of China and its ambition to play a larger role, matching its economic weight, requires new approaches to international trade. The COVID-19 pandemic exposed Europe’s import dependencies and the fragility of long and complex global value chains on which it relies. These vulnerabilities are visible in many strategically important sectors, from semiconductors (chips) through medicine to the production of items on which European Union’s visions of future decarbonization rest: photovoltaic cells, wind turbines, nuclear fuel etc. This Policy Brief has also been published as a Policy Brief within the GreenDeal-NET project

Net-zero or phase out? Stakeholder views on just transitions pathways for oil and gas in Norway

In this policy brief, authors David Jordhus-Lier, Camilla Houeland, Heikki Eidsvoll Holmås, Kacper Szulecki, Peder Ressem Østring and Kendra Dupuy document how policy makers and representatives of businesses and civil society organisations (including trade unions and environmental groups) have outlined pathway scenarios towards net-zero carbon emissions and a phase-out vision for the Norwegian oil and gas industry. The authors have developed these two scenarios participating in a focus group based on a so-called ‘backcasting’ exercise. There is perceived acceptance for the notion of net-zero emissions by 2050 from social actors involved in the Norwegian oil and gas industry. If this goal is to be reached with a science-based approach, however, deep-seated transformations in the global energy system will be needed, as well as concerted efforts by the Norwegian government and from other social actors. Specific targets for the electrification of offshore installations, the roll-out of large-scale offshore wind power and technologies for capturing, using and storing carbon on the Norwegian Continental Shelf are key milestones in this scenario. The main actors required to take responsibility for this pathway are the Norwegian state, in close tripartite dialogue with labour and capital, but also with institutional mechanisms that ensure the participation of local communities and civil society organisations. The net-zero pathway faces a series of obstacles. Among them are popular resistance to new renewable energy projects, increasing electricity prices and the risk this poses to plans for the electrification of offshore installations.

Populism, historical discourse and foreign policy: the case of Poland’s Law and Justice government

This article analyses how, in Poland, the populist political orientation of the ruling party (Law and Justice—PiS) has coloured the historical discourse of the government and has affected, in turn, its foreign policy and diplomatic relations. We argue that the historical discourse of the PiS government is a reflection of the party’s reliance on populism as a political mode of articulation in that it seeks to promote a Manichean, dichotomic and totalizing re-definition of the categories of victim, hero and perpetrator—and of Poland’s roles in this trinity. The article details the direct and indirect repercussions of PiS populist-inspired historical posture on Poland’s foreign policy by analysing its policies towards—and relations with—Ukraine and Germany. As such, the article sheds light on the under-explored links between populism and historical memory and makes a contribution to the nascent scholarship on the foreign policy of populist governments.

Poland's belated energy transition: now or never

The Polish authorities were for years playing down the need for decarbonization, seeing it as a threat to domestic energy security. Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, suddenly it is not climate but precisely security that may accelerate the phase out of fossil fuels.

The War in Ukraine is All About Democracy vs Dictatorship

A dictatorship has just brutally attacked its democratic neighbor. It’s not the first time in history that happens, but there are good reasons to see the war in Ukraine as the first one defining the conflict lines of this century.

Does security push democracy out of energy governance?

The Chernobyl Effect: Antinuclear Protests and the Molding of Polish Democracy, 1986–1990

The 1986 Chernobyl catastrophe was not only a human and ecological disaster, but also a political-ideological one, severely discrediting Soviet governance and galvanizing dissidents in the Eastern Bloc. In the case of Poland, what began as isolated protests against the Soviet nuclear site grew to encompass domestic nuclear projects in general, and in the process spread across the country and attracted new segments of society. This innovative study, combining scholarly analysis with oral histories and other accounts from participants, traces the growth and development of the Polish anti-nuclear movement, showing how it exemplified the broader generational and cultural changes in the nation’s opposition movements during the waning days of the state socialist era.