Henrik Stålhane Hiim
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Henrik Stålhane Hiim worked at NUPI until June 2022, as Senior Research fellow and Associated Senior Research Fellow NUPI's Research group on Russia, Asia and International Trade.
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NUPIpodden #19: Den gryende atompopulismen i Asia
Det er i ferd med å skje noe i Øst-Asia. Kinesiske kommentatorer vil ruste opp sine kjernevåpenarsenal. Samtidig øker støtten blant befolkningen i...
Revisiting nuclear hedging: ballistic missiles and the Iranian example
Technological shifts have made nascent nuclear arsenals more vulnerable. In this article, Henrik Stålhane Hiim argues that this provides “nuclear hedgers” – states that deliberately seeking to develop the ability to go nuclear – with strong incentives to acquiring ballistic missiles. The article illustrates this tendency through a case-study of the Iranian missile and rocket programs. It finds that missile acquisition has indeed been an integral part of Iran's hedging strategy, and that several of the systems it has acquired indicate an interest in nuclear weapons delivery.
AUKUS and its implications for Asia, US-European relations and non-proliferation
What does the AUKUS security partnership between Australia, the US and UK mean for security in Asia, for the US-China rivalry, and for US-Europe relations?
Conventional Counterforce Dilemmas: South Korea's Deterrence Strategy and Stability on the Korean Peninsula
In response to North Korea's nuclear weapons program, South Korea is quietly pursuing an independent conventional counterforce and countervalue strategy. This strategy is unique. Few, if any, nonnuclear states have sought to rely on advanced conventional capabilities to deter a nuclear-armed adversary. Why is South Korea pursuing a conventional counterforce and countervalue strategy, and what could its impact be on strategic stability on the Korean Peninsula? South Korea's approach should be understood as both a short- and long-term hedge against U.S. abandonment. Its deterrent effect, no matter how uncertain, acts as a short-term stopgap if the United States abandons South Korea. Over the long term, capabilities such as advanced ballistic and cruise missiles bolster South Korea's nuclear latency. At the same time, we highlight that the strategy poses numerous technological and operational difficulties and has negative implications for arms race and crisis stability. Given South Korea's approach and North Korea's response, disarmament efforts focused purely on the bilateral U.S.–North Korea relationship will not succeed. Rather, any agreement will now need to address the growing gap in the conventional balance of forces on the Korean Peninsula.
The Nordic shift: China’s uphill battle for public approval in northern Europe
A recent survey shows that even the champions of free trade in Europe’s high north are reassessing their approach to Chinese investment.
Consequences of Investments for National Security (COINS)
How can liberal open societies reap the benefits of open economies, but at the same time protect their legitimate security interests? In the project “Consequences of Investments for National Security”...
Theory Seminar: Crafting Payoffs: Strategies and Effectiveness of Economic Statecraft
When is it effective to use economic instruments in international politics?
China's Realism in the Middle East
While the United States is seeking to adopt a lower profile in the Middle East, China's interests in the region is expanding. This raises questions about the future of China's strategy towards the region. Will China seize the opportunity to establish a heavy military presence, cultivate client states, build alliances and ultimately replace the US as the regional hegemon? In this article, we argue that there is little reason to expect any major shift in China’s strategy. Beijing will seek to expand its influence, but in a less forward way than the US, adopting more subtle means and a more flexible policy towards its partners. China’s foreign and security policy in the Middle East will probably remain pragmatic and restrained. Unlike the United States, China's foreign policy is not based on values and ideology, but firmly on realpolitik principles and considerations of interests.
China and the nuclear crises in Iran and North Korea
The nuclear deal with Iran is in crisis, and talks on the North Korean nuclear program has made little progress. At the same time, China is well on its way to become one of the world’s most powerful states. How important is it for China to prevent any further proliferation of nuclear weapons?