Strategic Assistance: China and International Nuclear Weapons Proliferation
A major power with access to nuclear technology, China has a significant impact on international nuclear weapons proliferation, but its attitude towards the spread of the bomb has been inconsistent. China’s mixed record raises a broader question: why, when and how do states support potential nuclear proliferators? This book develops a framework for analyzing such questions, by putting forth three factors that are likely to determine a state’s policy: (1) the risk of changes in the nuclear status or military doctrines of competitors; (2) the recipient’s status and strategic value; and (3) the extent of pressure from third parties to halt nuclear assistance. It then demonstrates how these factors help explain China’s policies towards Pakistan, Iran, and North Korea. Overall, the book finds that China has been a selective and strategic supporter of nuclear proliferators. While nuclear proliferation is a security challenge to China in some settings, in others, it wants to help its friends build the bomb.
Kina og atomkrisene i Iran og Nord-Korea
Atomavtalen med Iran er i krise, og samtalar om Nord-Koreas atomprogram har gitt liten framgang. Samtidig er Kina på god veg til å bli ein av dei viktigaste og mektigaste statane i verda. Kor viktig er det for Kina å forhindre spreiing av kjernevåpen?
The Russian political system in transition: Scenarios for power transfer
In the aftermath of the March 2018 presidential elections, the Russian political system is preparing for – indeed, already entering – the next phase of its development: the transition of power. This inevitable, but still unmentionable, transition is the topic of topics in the minds of Russia’s political elites, and is made all the more pertinent by the fact that the acting members of the decision-making class cannot discuss it openly. What is the constitutional framework around this political situation? Is there indeed a problem of succession, or, more broadly, of stability in the transition of power? What lessons could be drawn from other political regimes that resemble the Russian system? What are the possible scenarios for the transition of power? What are the positive and negative sides, feasibility and possible consequences of these scenarios? These are the questions this working paper seeks to address.
Kan skattlegging hjelpe stater ut av sårbarhet?
Ledende forskere på feltet mener at skattlegging er puslespillbiten som mangler innen freds- og statsbygging.
Skal finne ut hvorfor atommaktene i Asia ruster opp
– Situasjonen er mer komplisert nå enn under den kalde krigen, sier Henrik Stålhane Hiim. Sammen med Sverre Lodgaard har han fått 8 millioner kroner fra UD til å forske på drivkreftene bak atomvåpenopprustning i Asia.
ANALYSE: Kurdisk statsbygging og kampen om naturressurser i dagens Irak
Hvilken rolle har skattlegging og naturressursforvaltning i kurdisk statsbygging?
Har jihadismen fått fotfeste i Sverige?
Magnus Ranstorp og Magnus Sandelin skal sjå nærare på historia, utbreiinga og utviklingstrekken til jihadismen i Sverige når dei besøkjer NUPI 17. januar.
How the New Cold War travelled North (Part II) Interaction between Norway and Russia
This policy brief examines changing Russian and Norwegian approaches to each other in the period 2012–2016, and discusses how the “New Cold War” spread to the North. This is an intriguing question, since both parties had initially stated that, despite the overall worsening of Russia–West relations following the crises in Ukraine, the North should be protected as a space for peaceful interaction. To address this question, watching and tracking the changing patterns of Russian exercises and military modernization is not enough; understanding the rise in tensions requires studying the effects of the interactions underway between the parties in this region. Three interaction effects need to be taken into consideration in explaining why the tense relations following the conflict in Ukraine spread to the low-tension Northern theatre. In this, we stress the interactive dynamics that ensues when two parties start to view each other as threats, interpreting new moves by the other as expressions of hostile intent. Further, we explain the observed New Cold War “contamination” with reference to domestic policy agendas and practices of decision-making. On both the Norwegian and the Russian sides, the new military posturing in the North, now interpreted as part of a growing conflict, has emerged partly as a side-effect of implementing what actually were longstanding national goals.
How the New Cold War travelled North (Part I) Norwegian and Russian narratives
The standoff between Russia and the West over Ukraine has already obstructed cooperation across a range of issues. Could it also affect state interaction between Norway and Russia in the Arctic—an area and a relationship long characterized by a culture of compromise and cooperation? In two policy briefs we examine changes in how Russia and Norway have approached each other in the Arctic in the period 2012–2016. This first brief presents the development of official Norwegian and Russian narratives on the relations between the two countries in the Arctic. Such narratives stipulate logical paths for action. Showing how Norwegian and Russian policies have changed in line with these narratives, we conclude that what some refer to as “the New Cold War” is indeed spreading to the Arctic.
Mellomstatleg samarbeid om naturressursar i Aust-Afrika
Korleis kan mellomstatleg samarbeid om naturvern og forvaltning av naturressursar i Aust-Afrika bidra til å skape fredeleg sameksistens i ei krigssone? Eit eksempel frå Uganda-Rwanda-DR Kongo kan vere lovande.