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Will the EU-US trade agreement lead to losses rather than economic gains? The basis for such claims is weak.
Discovering Opportunities in the Pandemic? Four Economic Response Scenarios for Central Asia
The COVID-19 crisis represents not only an unprecedented economic disruption but also an opportunity for Central Asia. A specific economic policy response may trigger either game-changing reforms that can facilitate the development of full-fledged market institutions or lead to a protracted crisis that would jeopardize almost 30-year long market economy transition progress. As it is rather unclear where the recovery pendulum will make its final swing, the current situation provides fruitful soil for various assumptions. This paper proposes and examines four scenarios of economic response strategies for the region as a whole, and for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan in particular, that result in unique development trajectories. The paper employs the foresight methodology to build four scenarios related to the situation after the lockdown is fully lifted. The scenarios serve the purpose of helping decision makers to embark on informed decisions while shaping anti-crisis measures and better understand causality mechanisms behind their policy choices.
Emerging Lessons from Implementing Climate-Related Peace and Security Mandates
Six of the ten largest United Nations-led peace operations in 2020 were located in countries that are the most exposed to climate change. Both UN peacekeeping operations and special political missions are increasingly mandated by the UN Security Council to consider and respond to climate-related security risks. In response, UN peace operations have tried to more effectively respond to climate-related peace and security challenges by adapting existing approaches and exploring innovative new ways in which to operationalize these tasks. Efforts to translate these climate and environmental-related mandates into policies and practices are a work in progress, and can benefit from ongoing learning, monitoring, and adaptation. In this regard, lessons and good practices for integrating climate-related security risks into policies, analysis, activities, and reporting are beginning to emerge.
Swiss-EU Relations With a Focus on the Current Situation
Michael Ambühl has negotiated several Swiss-EU agreements and presents here (with co-author Lara Lenz) an overview of recent developments in the relationship, that has been under pressure because the EU has demanded a more EEA-like arrangement. See also discussion at NUPI webinar (scroll down to find link). In 1992, Swiss voters rejected an accession to the European Economic Area (EEA). Among different reasons for this were institutional and sovereignty questions, such as the dynamic adoption of new EU legislation, and the Swiss Government announcement of the EEA being a training camp for a future EU membership. Instead of the multilateral EEA approach, Switzerland chose a bilateral approach with Bilateral Agreements I and II, which were signed in 1999 and 2004, respectively. The two packages regulate aspects of the economic, political, and cultural landscapes and benefit both parties with legal certainty and market access in selected policy sectors. About ten years ago, the EU expressed its desire for an Institutional Framework Agreement (IFA) with Switzerland to protect the homogeneity of the internal market, to remove legal barriers, and to introduce a more efficient dispute settlement procedure. The draft of the negotiation result (not initialed) presented in 2018 raised three concerns about which the Swiss Government sought clarification from the EU: wage protection, state aid, and the Citizens Rights Directive. These three issues continue to be central concerns for many Swiss voters because these rules could potentially create social or economic problems. Without acceptable clarification on these points from the EU, there is a considerable risk that the Swiss people could reject the IFA in a future referendum, which would put Switzerland and (to a lesser extent, of course) the EU in a difficult situation. To avoid such a consequence, Switzerland must exercise caution. If a satisfactory solution cannot be reached, Switzerland must consider alternatives to a premature submission of the IFA to avoid legal uncertainty during an interim period. Regardless of the upcoming bilateral developments, Switzerland, at the heart of Europe, traditionally has a positive relationship with the EU. These friendly relations are all the more important when considering today’s challenges, in which Switzerland can show solidarity with Brussels and support the larger-scale European goals of promoting peace, democracy, and human rights in the world.
Mixed Signals: What Putin Says about Gender Equality
Researchers on Russia have noticed that Putin gradually has adopted a more conservative agenda, especially as regards gender issues. But is this reflected in the Russian president's own rhetoric?
Governance, Social Policy, and Political Economy: Trends in Norway’s Partner Countries
In 2017–2018, NUPI (the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs) headed a project where political economy analyses were undertaken in eleven of Norway’s partner countries. These analyses were published as eleven separate reports. The reports focused on power relations and political developments in the partner countries, but they also analyzed the nature of governance. After the publication of the World Bank’s Worldwide Governance Indicators for 2019, the MFA approached NUPI and requested that we summarize the findings of this report for Norway’s eleven partner countries and assess these findings in light of the political economy analyses. We were also asked to investigate whether there were any connections between the nature and quality of governance on the one hand, and the nature of social policies and the human rights situation on the other. This report presents the findings of this assessment of the governance scores in the light of the above-mentioned political economy analyses. The report is structured as follows: Firstly, after briefly describing the governance indictors used by the World Bank, we summarize the eleven countries’ scores on the various governance indicators. Secondly, we assess the evolution of governance in the eleven countries, by comparing the scores in the 2019 report with those from 2011. Thirdly, we summarize the findings of the political economy analyses of the eleven countries and discuss how they fit with the governance scores. Finally, we present the eleven countries’ expenditure on social policies, as reported in the ILOs World Social Protection Report, and the human rights situation for the partner countries, and then describe how these findings relate to the governance scores.
The impact of climate change on UN Peacekeeping operations
Follow this webinar to learn more about how climate change impacts UN peacekeeping operations.
Adaptive Peace Operations: Navigating the Complexity of Influencing Societal Change Without Causing Harm
Peace operations are deployed to contain violence and to facilitate this process, but if they interfere too much, they will cause harm by inadvertently disrupting the very feedback loops critical for self-organization to emerge and to be sustained. To navigate this dilemma, this paper by Research Professor Cedric de Coning proposes employing an adaptive approach, where peace operations, together with the communities and people affected by the conflict, actively engage in an iterative process of inductive learning and adaptation. Adaptive Peace Operations is a normative and functional approach to peace operations that is aimed at navigating the complexity inherent in trying to nudge societal change processes towards sustaining peace, without causing harm.
New study shows 95% South Sudanese depend on climate sensitive livelihood
The collaborative project undertaken by the Norwegian institute of international affairs, is aimed at achieving UN climate agenda. The institute has been conducting its research for close to ten years and it will complete its mandate in 2023. Lead researcher on the South Sudan fact sheet, Dr Andrew E. Yaw Tchie says they have identified livelihood decline, migration and mobility, military and armed actors and political and economic exploitation as pathways negatively affecting climate, Peace and Security.