Fossil Fuels in Central Asia: Trends and Energy Transition Risks
This data article provides an overview of fossil fuel trends in Central Asia from 2010 to 2019. Data on the production, consumption, export and import of coal, natural gas and oil are summarised for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. While promoting renewable energy, Central Asia continues to rely on and expand the use of coal, natural gas and oil with no major phase-out plans yet on the horizon.
Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: Afghanistan
Afghanistan is highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change: rising temperatures, changing precipitation patterns and increasingly frequent extreme weather events. Currently, Afghanistan is experiencing its worst drought in 27 years, which, compounded with COVID-19 and the economic contraction that followed the takeover of the government by the Taliban in August 2021, has significantly increased livelihood and food insecurity and contributed to a growing humanitarian emergency. Climate change exacerbates the deteriorating conditions for agriculture-based livelihoods and food insecurity. Conflict and the effects of climate change have increased internal displacement and changed migration patterns. High levels of displacement accentuate food and livelihood insecurity and increase the vulnerability of marginalised groups, including women. The effects of climate change may heighten the risk of more frequent and intense local conflicts over land and water and increase tensions over transboundary resources. Conflict has eroded the resilience of communities and local authorities to adapt to climate change and to deal with the current humanitarian crisis. This creates opportunities for elites to manipulate and profit from land and water disputes, with elevated risks for marginalised groups.
Kan Norge oppleve et cyberangrep i dag?
This oped discusses the risk of a cyber attack on Norwegian energy infrastructure after the introduction of sanctions against Russia in connection with Russia's war against Ukraine.
Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: South Sudan
Unpredictable annual variations in extreme weather events, like flooding and droughts, affect agriculture-dependent communities and influence pastoralist mobility patterns and routes. Such changes may intensify the risk of tensions between herders and farmers, often in connection with land, grazing, water and communal affairs. Transhumance, including cross-border migration from Sudan through the Greater Upper Nile in particular, exacerbates the spread of veterinary diseases and fuels environmental degradation and competition over scarce resources. Women and girls continue to bear the brunt of the effects of climate change; female-headed households are especially vulnerable. Climate-related livestock losses compounded by pre-existing rivalries increase the risk of cattle raiding, which can trigger retaliation, communal conflict, displacement, deepening intercommunal rivalry and the formation of armed groups.
Ståle Ulriksen
Ståle Ulriksen is a researcher at the Norwegian Naval College, part of the Norwegian Defence University, with a 20 percent position at NUPI, in Th...
Asha Ali
Asha Ali was an Advisor at NUPI until the summer of 2024. She worked in the Research Group on Peace, Conflict and Development.
Climate, Peace and Security: Sudan
Sudan is severely exposed to climate change. As one of the world’s least developed countries, extreme weather, recurrent floods and droughts, and changing precipitation interact with other vulnerabilities – such as ecosystem degradation, unsustainable agricultural practices, natural resource scarcities and resource-based conflicts – limiting societal capacities to cope and adapt. The economic consequences of COVID-19, ongoing political instability (further aggravated by the October 2021 military coup), and rising inflation all weaken state and societal resilience, livelihoods and food security. ● Rising temperatures, rainfall variability, and droughts and floods negatively impact agriculture, livelihoods and food security. In particular, the adverse effects of climate change, combined with gender-based disparities in natural resource governance, accentuate the climate-related security risks for women and girls. ● High levels of displacement sharpen humanitarian needs and vulnerability to the effects of climate change; shifting migration patterns in response to changing resource availability may increase the risk of local conflicts in some areas. ● Various conflict dynamics and decades of political interference, local conflicts (interlinked with land and natural resources) and ongoing political instability have undermined traditional resource management systems and state governance. ● The legacies of natural resource mismanagement have increased the marginalisation of rural communities and accelerated land degradation, excacerbating local vulnerabilities that add to the human security risks associated with climate change.
The Russia-Ukraine Crisis and Japan’s Energy Dilemma
The war in Ukraine is a game changer not only disrupting financial markets and human migration patterns but also the global energy landscape. As European countries announce their plans to phase out and divert energy imports from Russia, the question of how to make up the difference looms large. One solution is to increase energy independence through a greater shift to more renewables. In East Asia, Japan also finds itself in a heightened energy dilemma. A resource poor island nation with one of the lowest energy self-sufficiency rates in the OECD of 11.2 per cent in 2020, Japan is particularly vulnerable to shocks in global energy markets. With EU states’ energy policies in flux after Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion, it is uncertain if Japanese policymakers and voters are committed to shifting away from nuclear power and redoubling efforts to reduce fossil fuel usage.
Grappling with and Adapting to Climate Change in South Sudan
Almost a decade since the conflict in South Sudan commenced, the conflict has become further fragmented, with indiscriminate violence across the country being highly varied. Playing into these complex conflict dynamics are the impacts of climate change,which may further grievances and tensions. South Sudan is one of the countries in the world most affected by climate change. It is projected that by the mid-21st century, the Sahel band will include South Sudan. Adding to this challenge is a lack of sufficient funding, knowledge capacity and technical resources, weakening the government’s ability to adapt to the impacts of climate change, further increasing climate-related security risks
Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: Iraq
• Increasing temperatures, decreasing water availability and greater inter-annual variability in rainfall negatively affect agriculture, reduce household income and food availability, and exacerbate livelihood insecurity. Women and girls are disproportionately affected by the adverse effects of climate change, due to pre-existing gender norms and persisting inequalities. • Low agriculture yields and loss of livelihoods contribute to increased urban migration, with urban challenges including the risk of social unrest and protests in host cities. • Armed groups and militias leverage the economic hardships, further exacerbated by the compounding effects of climate change, for recruitment and support. Weak governance increases the opportunities for elite exploitation and corruption, which leads to further marginalization and exclusion that feed grievances and drive instability.