Global economy

The European Union and Peacebuilding

The Rising Powers and Peacebuilding project seeks to address an important question that has not yet been thoroughly researched: what are the new approaches that rising powers have taken to peacebuilding, how do they differ from those of traditional powers and multilateral institutions, and what lessons can be learned from these new approaches?The policy briefs in this series provide a baseline on the roles of rising powers and their affiliated regional organizations in peacebuilding. To this point, little research has been conducted on the substance and impact of peacebuilding activities carried out by rising powers. This project seeks to address this gap in the research by providing a structured, critical analysis of the values, content and impact of recent peacebuilding initiatives of rising powers, comparing them to one another and to approaches by Western donors and international organizations. The project also aims to offer new theoretical claims about the role of the global South in peacebuilding, rooted in insightful empirical work (on Somalia, Afghanistan and Myanmar and on specific non-¬‐Western actors), and to make key policy audiences aware of alternative approaches and their empirical records and theoretical underpinnings (which may vary among values, global/regional power aspirations, bureaucratic approaches).The project partners will also produce case studies on the role of rising powers in peacebuilding, and include:ACCORD (an NGO based in South Africa), the Istanbul Policy Center (IPC), , the United Service Institution of India (USI), American University’s School of International Service (SIS), CSIS-¬‐Jakarta, and the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI). The project is funded by the Carnegie Corporation of New York, the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, American University, and NUPI.

Nord Stream 2: policy dilemmas and the future of EU gas market

The Nord Stream 2 (NS2) gas pipeline project is one of the most controversial issues in EU gas-related debates today. Its proponents hold that the project is driven by purely commercial considerations, while opponents label it as political and contradictory to EU goals and rules. The project has also contributed to raising several questions concerning the role of commercial actors in the shaping and realization of the EU energy policy as well as the impact on EU internal cohesion and relations with Ukraine and Russia. Realization of NS2 may boost the role of Russian gas in the European energy mix, especially in northwestern Europe; however, it could also undermine the credibility of the common EU energy policy, which aims, at least formally, at diversification of supply routes and suppliers as a joint and coordinated response to the energy-security challenges faced by the EU as a whole and by its member states. This Policy Brief sheds light on the current state of the debate on this project and examines the possible short-, mid- and long-term implications.

Mispricing Argentine soybean exports

Reform, Renegotiation and Referendum

The UK stands on the brink of a momentous decision: whether to leave or remain in the European Union. Unlike all the other states that have sought late entry to the EU, the UK did not hold a referendum on whether to join in 1973: the decision was taken on the basis of a parliamentary vote. However, in 1975 voters were asked whether they wished to stay in the European Community, and a strong vote to remain was thought to have resolved the matter. However, in 2013, divisions within the Conservative Party led Prime Minister David Cameron to promise to engage in reform of the EU and to renegotiate the UK’s terms of membership before holding a referendum on whether to stay in. It was a high-risk, high-stakes proposition. Cameron must persuade his party, the British lectorate and his partners in the other EU member states of the merits of his case. The negotiation covers four areas of concern for the UK: economic governance, competitiveness, sovereignty, and immigration. To some British Eurosceptics, the emands seem woefully inadequate; to fellow EU leaders, they pose significant difficulties. The formal negotiations began in late 2015, after months of exploratory talks with the other member states, and are expected to be completed by the end of February, with the referendum coming as early as June 2016. While those who seek to leave the EU have been honing their arguments at least since the 1993 Maastricht Treaty, just that they envisage leaving the EU to look like is unclear. Brexit could take many forms, representing a journey to an unknown destination.

Policy options for sustainability and resilience in potato value chains in Bihar: a system dynamics approach

Potatoes are an important crop for food security in Bihar, providing significant income generating activities for participating farmers and an additional source of diet diversification for consumers. Recent reforms to the Agriculture Production Market Committee (APMC) Act and improvements in state-wide governance have provided further incentives for investment in the potato sector, particularly in cold storage facilities that can mitigate seasonal price fluctuations and improve the availability of potatoes. At the same time, climate change could have severe ramifications on the potato sector in Bihar, with some forecasts redicting a decline in yields of over 20 percent in the coming decades. In this paper, we look at the quantitative impacts over time of different investment, trade, and policy scenarios in the potato value chain, particularly those that can mitigate climate change effects, using a system dynamics model of the potato value chain that builds on previous qualitative studies (e.g. Minten et al. 2011). Preliminary results highlight that reducing storage costs, either through subsidies or increased competition, could reduce the price variability inherent with climatic shocks. On the other hand, encouraging conventional types of cold storage could have additional feedback effects that exacerbate climatic shocks, suggesting a need to consider “climate-smart” investments.

Norden og Kina: «Smått er godt» Islands økonomiske diplomati med Kina.

Although Iceland has a shorter diplomatic history with China in comparison with the other Nordic states, the island nation has built a strong relationship with Beijing which has been dominated by economics, especially the bilateral free trade agreement struck in 2013. Although Iceland is not a major factor in Chinese trade, the Sino-Icelandic relationship has demonstrated China’s commitment to small state diplomacy and Arctic relations.