Global economy

China's New Development Bank and Infrastructure-led Growth

In view of China’s recent launch of several new development banks (AIIB, OBOR, NDB) with a central focus on infrastructure, this NUPI Brief takes a look at how China’s infrastructure projects have fared both at home and abroad in the past. It asks the question: Does economic growth, boosted by infrastructure investment, necessarily benefit development? Admitting that infrastructure has played a crucial role in China’s development, as well as contributed to the changes in other developing countries, this brief cautions against several potential economic risks. To be more specific, three issues are highlighted: first, low usage and low profitability; second, debt and broken contracts; third, favouritism towards state-owned companies.

The Energy Union and security-of-gas supply

The EU, Russia and the potential for dialogue – Different readings of the crisis in Ukraine

Recent developments in European security have shown the growing need for a better understanding of the security dynamics on the European continent. This article presents an analysis of differing Russian and European perceptions of European security in general, and concerning the crisis in Ukraine in particular. As much of the literature on these issues has been normatively driven, we aim to provide an impartial presentation and analysis of the dominant Russian and EU discourses. This we see as essential for investigating the potential for constructive dialogue between Russia and the EU. If simplistic assumptions about the motivations and intentions of other actors take hold in the public debate and policy analyses, the main actors may be drawn into a logic that is ultimately dangerous or counterproductive. With this article we offer a modest contribution towards discouraging such a development in Russia–EU relations. After presenting an analysis of the differing EU and Russian perceptions, we discuss the potential for dialogue between such different worldviews, and reflect on potential implications for European security. As the article shows, there are tendencies of a certain adjustment in the Union’s approach that may make a partial rapprochement between the two sides more likely.

Cyber Security as Development Assistance - Growth and Vulnerability

The importance of digital technology underpins most of the social, economic and political development goals of most donor countries and international organisations today. Cyber Security Capacity Building (CCB), an approach aimed at advancing, cultivating and encouraging growth and stability in developing countries through digitalization, seems set to play an increasingly important role in future foreign policy considerations and government programmes. In the NUPI project ‘Cyber Security Capacity Building (2015-2016) we have mapped out concrete risks and challenges, proposed recommendations for dealing with them, and provided suggestions for implementing the adequate tools effectively. This policy brief presents a summary of the final report, which draws on project reports produced by NUPI related to this project.

Cybersikkerhet og utvikling

Holding the borders, holding the centre: the EU and the refugee crisis

What has come to be called the ‘refugee crisis’ is the latest in a series of crises bedevilling the European Union – the four-fold monetary,budgetary, economic and financial ‘Euro-crisis’; a geopolitical security challenge posed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,the war in Syria and incursions into NATO airspace, and a looming Brexit, combined with the possible fragmentation of old EU member states like the United Kingdom and Spain. The ‘refugee crisis’ is the most serious of all. It encapsulates the EU’s failings and failures that other crises laid bare: the lack of long-term prevision and strategy, an overburdened decision-making system, and an outmoded conception of sovereignty. It goes to the very heart of the EU, for three reasons: Firstly, the cleavages it creates between member states add to those that have been dividing the EU since the early days of the Euro-crisis; secondly, the massive displacement of populations gives rise to complex problems, sparking controversies that weaken the social and political fabric of individual member states and feed into populism and enophobia; and, thirdly, the German Chancellor, who has played a crucial role in alleviating, if not solving, other crises, is facing domestic and European rebellions for her handling of the refugee issue. Will the agreement that the EU and Turkey concluded on 18 March 2016 manage to limit the influx of refugees, patch up differences, and re-establish Angela Merkel’s authority in Germany and in the Union?