Investeringer og sikkerhet - Utenlandske oppkjøp og investeringer er også sikkerhetspolitikk. Hvordan skal Norge balansere mellom ulike hensyn
Utenlandske investeringer er i utgangspunktet et gode. Studier har vist at utenlandske oppkjøp og investeringer bidrar til økt produktivitet, kunnskapsoverføring og kan skape arbeidsplasser og skatteinntekter. For Norge er det viktig å være en attraktiv destinasjon for utenlandske investeringer. Attraktiviteten kan blant annet økes ved å ha få reguleringer, lave terskler og enkle prosedyrer. Tilsvarende ønsker vi at det er åpenhet, likebehandling, sikkerhet og forutberegnelighet for de mange norske utgående investeringene til andre land. Men, ikke alle utenlandske investeringer er like ønskelige. Noen kan svekke nasjonal sikkerhet. Det er for eksempel viktig å sikre kontroll med kritisk infrastruktur, det vil si, de anlegg og systemer, fysiske eller virtuelle, som er nødvendige for å opprettholde samfunnets behov og funksjoner. Investeringer og oppkjøp kan også på andre områder innebære en sikkerhetsrisiko. Dersom et oppkjøp skaper uheldige avhengigheter kan det påvirke nasjonal sikkerhet. Utenlandske oppkjøp kan også gi andre tilgang til teknologi eller kunnskap som kan virke negativt på nasjonal sikkerhet. Noen oppkjøp eller investeringer kan også muliggjøre overvåkning eller sabotasje, eller gi muligheter til å påføre samfunnet annen skade. For alle land gjelder det derfor å finne en god balanse mellom å sikre gode vilkår for økonomisk utvikling, samtidig som man skal ivareta nasjonale sikkerhetshensyn. Den internasjonale utviklingen har lenge gått i retning av liberalisering og lettere tilgang for utenlandske investeringer. Norge har lenge fulgt denne trenden. Tidligere hadde vi regler om eierskifte som diskriminerte mellom norske og utenlandske statsborgere, men disse bortfalt med inngåelsen av EØS-avtalen. Ervervsloven, som kom i 1995, skulle kontrollere eierskifte, men den ble fjernet i 2002. Danmark og Sverige har heller ikke noe omfattende regelverk, eller «screenings prosedyrer», som sikrer myndighetskontroll rundt investeringer ut fra sikkerhetsmessige hensyn, mens land som Australia og USA har adskillig mer velutviklede systemer. Med økte geopolitiske spenninger synes pendelen å være i ferd med å snu, også i Europa. I Storbritannia har Theresa May i sitt valgmanifest varslet at hun ønsker å styrke kontrollen rundt utenlandske oppkjøp, det samme har også den franske presidenten Emmanuel Macron varslet. I Norge er det også en debatt. (forts...))
Impact of Climate Change on ASEAN International Affairs: Risk and Opportunity Multiplier
This study examines the implications of climate change for international affairs in Southeast Asia and for ASEAN as a multilateral organization. Climate change and efforts to mitigate climate change give rise to major risks as well as opportunities in international affairs. It is therefore in the interest of all countries to be aware of the risks and prepare for them, and the overarching purpose of this study is to support ASEAN and its member states in this area. Given Southeast Asia’s complex geography—with numerous archipelagoes, long coastlines, intricate borders, and great-power neighbors—climate change is especially likely to affect interstate relations in the region.Climate change may impact on international affairs among the ASEAN countries at several levels. Firstly, changing climatic conditions may affect interstate relations through humanitarian crises, migration, and/or the need for greater imports of vital goods. Secondly, reducing greenhouse gas emissions requires international coordination and cooperation. Thirdly, the global energy transition driven by climate policy may lead to an altered geopolitical situation in the world, including ASEAN.
Norden og Storbritannia – et nytt avsnitt
In this special issue of Internasjonal Politikk, we discuss how Britain’s decision to leave the EU will influence Norden and the individual Nordic countries. A little more than a year has now passed since the British EU referendum, which ended with a majority of those voting recommending that Britain should leave the Union. “Brexit” marks a crossroads in European political history, and will be central in European politics for many years to come. The outcome of the negotiations is uncertain, as are the long-term implications of Britain’s withdrawal. What is certain is that Brexit has already created unrest and insecurity in Europe, and that it will change both Britain’s role in Europe and intra-EU dynamics. These changes will in all likelihood also influence the Nordic countries – Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden – which belong in the Northwestern corner of Europe and historically have had close ties to Britain. Independent of their formal attachment to the EU, they all need to redefine their relations with Britain as well as with Europe and the EU post-Brexit.
Xi Jinping’s China – what does the future hold?
China's president has now started his second term at power. What is the future outlook for the country's economy? And how does Japan perceive its neighbour?
Empires, Privateering and the sea (EMPRISE)
EMPRISE studies the role of the importance of power at sea for the formation of empires and states from 1500-1856....
Surviving Brexit: twelve lessons from Norway
One year after the referendum, after losing its majority in the general election, the UK government is revising what Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson famously labelled the ‘Cake-and-Eat-It’ approach to Brexit. In this context, it might be worth asking if there is anything the UK can learn from Norway’s quarter of a century experience as a ‘quasimember’ of the European Union.
Malawi: A Political Economy Analysis
This report provides a comprehensive political economy analysis of contemporary Malawi. The country epitomises the primacy of patrimonial politics – including endemic corruption – with a powerful presidency at the helm and a weak legislature, although with a largely independent judiciary. Political parties, barely distinguishable in terms of policies and ideology, are dominated by strong personalities whose regional and ethnic provenance influence voter preferences. Political clientelism, characterised by informal decision-making, trumps sound economic policy formulation and implementation, despite purported efforts to reform and build institutions based on legal-rational Weberian principles. This inhibits long-term transformation of the ailing agrarian economy vulnerable to climate change. The report recounts salient features of social sectors such as education and health, and highlights the burden posed by high population growth rates on resources and social services. Improvements have been noted in civil and political rights but less in economic and social rights owing largely to the fact that half the population live in poverty. Apart from social and electoral cleavages, Malawi exhibits no serious domestic conflicts. A dispute with Tanzania over the northern part of Lake Malawi remains unresolved
The challenge of taxation in African countries
Tax is the key to development, but African countries are facing several domestic as well as international challenges. What may be the solutions? This was the main question discussed among leading researchers at the plenary session in Bergen in August.
Mozambique: A Political Economy Analysis
This report uses a political economy analysis to shed light on some of the paradoxes that characterize Mozambique mid 2017: Entrenched poverty, the resuscitated armed conflict/war, the trust crisis between the Mozambican (Frelimo) government and its development partners, the spiralling debt and the party-state. Since 2017, Mozambique is arguably at one of its most critical moments since the end of the civil war, in a crisis-like cocktail of political, economic and social problems. By the time of writing, the Mozambican authorities only released the content of the Kroll report (an independent forensic audit of the ‘secret’ loans taken up in 2013) in summary form. Mozambique defaulted on its foreign debt in 2016, which has become unsustainable for the immediate future. The ‘secret’ loans explain a smaller part of the new debt, while heavy international and domestic borrowing and public spending after the discovery of large new mineral resources drove up the debt levels. The economy unhinged not by a full-blown resource curse, but rather by the mere prospect of large future income from the offshore LNG gas and coal, which we dubbed the “presource curse”.
South Sudan: A Political Economy Analysis
This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the current state of South Sudan. A main argument is that its political economy is fundamentally atypical: achieving independence in 2011 and dissolving into renewed civil war in 2013, South Sudan is suffering the crisis of a weak, neo-patrimonial guerrilla government, with fragmented military-political systems that stretch across its extensive borderlands. This report locates the current crisis within a longer and deeper context, and explores the power dynamics and centrifugal destructive forces that drive patterns of extractive, violent governance. These forces underpin today’s economic and state collapse, civil war, famine, the flight of its people, and their local tactics of survival.