Frykten for populismen
(Available in Norwegian only): Det snakkes mye og negativt om populistenes fremmarsj i Europa. Men det er ofte uklart hva som menes med populisme.
Øyvind Svendsen
Øyvind Svendsen is Senior Research Fellow in the Research group on global order and diplomacy at NUPI. The core themes in his research are foreign...
Myanmar: A Political Economy Analysis
Myanmar may for a long time remain in a transitional state with an uncertain future. After a series of political and economic liberalization reforms from 2011 onwards, Myanmar’s political trajectory remains open-ended, although the most plausible scenario remains a continued slow democratization process. The democratic opening has been driven largely by the interest of the military rulers in changing Myanmar’s relations with Western states and thereby gaining leverage vis-à-vis China. Continued military influence, persistent capacity problems in political parties and parliamentary politics, weak channels of political representation and limited administrative capacity give rise to critical questions about the substance of democratization and economic development in Myanmar. The country’s informal economy is one of the largest in the world and is upheld by informal elite pacts that were formed in the military era, often involving high-ranking officers and crony companies. Along with a high level of corruption and lack of redistributive mechanisms the continuing cronyism hinders inclusive growth. If these economic structures persist, social and ethnic conflicts may intensify and progress towards further democratization stall. Despite this, foreign direct investments in resource extraction and other sectors have been on the rise since 2011 and are likely to continue. Myanmar is also ranked as the world’s second-most vulnerable country to climate change. The government needs a better understanding of climate change and its effects – both its direct impacts on Myanmar and its indirect impacts via neighbouring countries such as Bangladesh. As Myanmar remains at a crossroads, smart external assistance may have greater long-term impact in Myanmar than in other recipient countries where the situation is less volatile. However, donors may also become increasingly frustrated and reduce their assistance because of the ongoing Rohingya crisis and because of the limited local capacity to absorb international assistance.
Norwegian exports in global value chains
This study analyses the participation of the Norwegian economy in global value chains in 2000-2014, following the gross exports decomposition framework in Koopman, Wang and Wei (2014) and using the World Input-Output Database (WIOD). The analysis shows that Norway increased its participation in global value chains through both backward and forward linkages, but the latter is more dominant and re ects Norway's endowments in natural resources. Moreover, the study reveals that services exports increased substantially during the period analysed and are even higher than manufacturing exports if measured in value-added terms rather than gross terms. This highlights the key role of services in global value chains as well as the relevance of measuring trade in value-added terms.
EU climate and energy policy: new challenges for old energy suppliers
Climate policy will transform the EU energy demand mix. This has implications for the main suppliers of fossil fuels to the EU, foremost among which are Algeria, Colombia, Kazakhstan, Nigeria, Norway, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the USA. Norway has a better starting point for adapting to changing EU energy demand than the other energy suppliers and therefore represents a best-case scenario. Whatever Norway fails to do, the other countries are even less likely to achieve. The question is whether Norway has been quick enough to exploit the opportunities to play a proactive role in the EU’s energy transition. This chapter argues that it has not, dragging its feet on natural gas vehicles, Norwegian wind power, electricity interconnectors, green battery development and mixing of hydrogen into natural gas. Some possible reasons for the tardiness are Norway’s dual resource course of oil and hydropower, carbon lock-in, energy populism, resource nationalism and blind spots in the perception of Norway’s place in international climate and energy policy.
EU-Supported Reforms in the EU Neighbourhood as Organized Anarchies: The Case of Post-Maidan Ukraine
How does the EU and its member states organize their support for reforms in the countries of the EU Neighbourhood? Building on organization theory research on reforms as sets of loosely coupled ‘garbage can’ processes, we conceptualize the ENP induced reform processes as an organized framework connecting the reform capacities of not only the EU institutions but also EU member-state governments. We apply this approach to Ukraine in the post-Maidan period. We focus on the interplay between EU-level reform capacities and the capacities of two member states highly active in Ukraine, namely Germany and Sweden. As this case illustrates, the current approach provides a complementary perspective to mainstream approaches to the study of the EU’s external governance as it offers partial explanations of how organizational processes may impact on the efficiency of reforms promoted by the EU and its member states in the neighbouring countries.
China and Multilateral Development Banks: Positions, Motivations, Ambitions
The evolving relationships between the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the major multilateral development banks (MDBs) reflect China’s evolution as a prospering developing country and a major power. Why has China been nurturing strong interests towards MDBs? This report focuses on changing positions, motivations, and ambitions concerning China and multilateral development banking.
Brexit Means Br(EEA)Xit: The UK withdrawal from the EU and its implications for the EEA
Because it extends the Single Market to the three EFTA States Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway, the Agreement on the European Economic Area is not an EU external agreement comme les autres. This is particularly salient in the context of the UK withdrawal from the EU. The UK withdrawal will affect the three EFTA States’ citizens, businesses and other stakeholders in a way that is comparable to how it will affect citizens, businesses and other stakeholders from the remaining EU Member States. It is thus critical that the two intertwined processes of leaving the EU (“Brexit”) and consequently the EEA (“Br(EEA)xit”) are closely coordinated if the integrity of the Single Market is to be preserved, in line with EEA rules. The need for coordination between the EU, the UK and the three EFTA States to address the consequences of Brexit for the EEA is a foretaste, albeit specific, of the complex external implications of the UK withdrawal from all other EU external agreements.
The cyber frontier and digital pitfalls in the Global South
How does digitalisation lead to new kinds of global connections and disconnections in the Global South? And what are the pitfalls that accompany this development? Much of the policy literature on digitalisation and development has focused on the importance of connecting developing countries to digital networks. Good connection to digital networks may have a fundamental impact on societies, changing not only how individuals and businesses navigate, operate and seek opportunities, but also as regards relations between government and the citizenry. However, the rapid pace of this development implies that digital technologies are being put to use before good, functional regulatory mechanisms have been developed and installed. The resultant shortcomings – in state mechanisms, institutions, coordination mechanisms, private mechanisms, general awareness, public knowledge and skills – open the door to new kinds of vulnerabilities. Herein lie dangers, but also opportunities for donor/recipient country exchange. Instead of adding to the already substantial literature on the potential dividends, this article examines a less studied issue: the new societal vulnerabilities emerging from digitalisation in developing countries. While there is wide agreement about the need to bridge the gap between the connected and the disconnected, the pitfalls are many.
NEW BOOK: Is Russia turning its back on the West?
Has Russia strengthened its ties to East Asia – pulled back from the West?