Mozambique: A Political Economy Analysis
This report uses a political economy analysis to shed light on some of the paradoxes that characterize Mozambique mid 2017: Entrenched poverty, the resuscitated armed conflict/war, the trust crisis between the Mozambican (Frelimo) government and its development partners, the spiralling debt and the party-state. Since 2017, Mozambique is arguably at one of its most critical moments since the end of the civil war, in a crisis-like cocktail of political, economic and social problems. By the time of writing, the Mozambican authorities only released the content of the Kroll report (an independent forensic audit of the ‘secret’ loans taken up in 2013) in summary form. Mozambique defaulted on its foreign debt in 2016, which has become unsustainable for the immediate future. The ‘secret’ loans explain a smaller part of the new debt, while heavy international and domestic borrowing and public spending after the discovery of large new mineral resources drove up the debt levels. The economy unhinged not by a full-blown resource curse, but rather by the mere prospect of large future income from the offshore LNG gas and coal, which we dubbed the “presource curse”.
The Russia Conference 2017 - Competing realities
The use of hybrid warfare in Ukraine and the leaking of hacked documents during the US presidential election campaign have led to a renewed discussion about Russian propaganda and influence operations.
Autonomy or integration? Small-state responses to a changing European security landscape
Is there a pattern in how small European states, inside and outside of the EU, adapt and adjust to EU foreign and security policy? This article introduces a Forum in Global Affairs, discussing how small states are responding to a changing European security landscape. We assess selected European small states’ room for manoeuvre within various fields under the EU external action, and within EU institutional structures more broadly – as part of everyday diplomatic interactions in Brussels and in the context of the rotating EU presidency. As the European integration process enters a new phase, possibly marked by a trend of more differentiated integration and flexibility of individual attachments, small states will continue to face the choice between formal autonomy and integration, and between de facto hesitance and adaptability. With Brexit, the remaining large member states may become more influential, but small states will collectively have a majority of the votes and total population. Perhaps the coming era of European integration will become the era of small states?
South Sudan: A Political Economy Analysis
This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the current state of South Sudan. A main argument is that its political economy is fundamentally atypical: achieving independence in 2011 and dissolving into renewed civil war in 2013, South Sudan is suffering the crisis of a weak, neo-patrimonial guerrilla government, with fragmented military-political systems that stretch across its extensive borderlands. This report locates the current crisis within a longer and deeper context, and explores the power dynamics and centrifugal destructive forces that drive patterns of extractive, violent governance. These forces underpin today’s economic and state collapse, civil war, famine, the flight of its people, and their local tactics of survival.
Transatlantic Troubles and the EU’s Pivot Toward Asia
The G20 Summit in Hamburg demonstrated that the geopolitical landscape is rapidly changing. The U.S. is no longer the only leader—it has to share the scene with China, Europe, and Russia, among others. In light of the changing landscape, the EU and China have begun to redefine their relationship. For years, Europe has sought to find the best way to adjust to the rise of China and growth in Asia. A key factor in the EU’s ties to China was always its relationship with the United States. However, President Donald Trump has brought new uncertainties to the transatlantic alliance. How will this affect the European “Pivot to Asia?”
Brexit and implications for the EU, EEA and Norway
What will be the implication of the recent changes in Europe? How will small states be able to adapt to these changes?
International Intervention and Local Politics: Insights from Aceh
Fabio Scarpello visits NUPI to talk about the book "International Interventions and Local Politics: Fragmented States and the Politics of Scale".
EU Central Asia Strategy: Partnership for sustainable development
How can the EU contribute to a continued development in the right direction for Central Asia?
Ukrainian energy market in transition: How can it succeed in a new geopolitical setting?
NUPI and NUCC invites leading experts to share their views in recent changes in the Ukrainian energy market.
Digital Attacks against the Norwegian Petroleum Sector (DISP)
This project is mapping the threats and the historical usage of digital weapons against critical infrastructures, as well as examining the problems arising from unclear responsibilities in responding ...