When every act is war: Post-Crimea conflict dynamics and Russian foreign policy (WARU)
Tension between great powers in world politics is escalating rapidly. What are the driving forces behind deteriorating relations? Can we explain them solely by the ‘aggressiveness’ of the other (be th...
The Geopolitics of Fish in the Arctic
Climate change and declining sea-ice in the Central Arctic Ocean (CAO) has brought concerns that fish stocks may expand into the high Arctic. While the sub-Arctic seas of the North Pacific and the North Atlantic have abundant fish resources subject to major commercial fisheries for generations, the CAO has little or none. Concerns that fish stocks could expand into the CAO provided the impetus for negotiating the 2018 Agreement to Prevent Unregulated Fishing in the Central Arctic Ocean. This policy brief discusses efforts to address challenges associated with climate change and fish in the Arctic, and makes recommendations for policy action.
Norwegians adapting to a changing world
The world as we have come to know it is changing. How do Norwegians respond to these changes? What are their views of Norwegian foreign policy?
The spiralling effects of the Sino-American trade war
Almost two years ago, China and the United States instigated a trade conflict which has had serious international effects, a situation since exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic. What has truly made a solution to this conflict elusive, however, is that its origins lie well beyond questions of trade deficits and fair competition, and are instead based on the looming question of a power transition between to the two states. The effects of this divergence are beginning to be observed in several economic realms, including the financial and the technological. Many other actors in the global economy have begun to experience the side effects of this completion, and may now have to face difficult choices about how to balance between these two emerging poles in the current fragile global economy.
Ytre høyre normaliseres
The far right is increasingly normalised, and gets away with it - also in Norway.
Brothers in Arms and Faith? The Emerging US-Central and Eastern Europe ‘Special Relationship’
In this policy note, we explore the nature, strength and tensions of the contemporary US-Central Eastern Europe relationship. We describe the expanding US-CEE ‘brotherhood in arms’: growing trade relations, intensified military cooperation, and rekindled diplomatic ties. Further, we unpack the striking and largely ignored dimensions of the US-CEE ‘brotherhood in faith’: the many ways in which the United States and Central and Eastern Europe are tied together by overlapping ideologies of national conservatism and a particular version of Christian ‘family values’. This involves addressing the complexities of an increasingly influential and ambitious Visegrád Group, whose key players – Poland and Hungary – may be brothers, but are by no means twins. It also means raising some broader, burning discussions about the future of NATO and the meaning of ‘Europe’. Universalist, multicultural and postnational? Or conservative, Christian and sovereigntist?
Attentatet i Bagdad: Farlig og feilkalkulert
Den 3. januar kom nyheten om at generalmajor Qasem Soleimani ble drept i et amerikansk droneangrep i Bagdad. Ifølge president Trump handlet USA «for å stoppe en krig, ikke for å starte en krig», men angrepet bør heller ses i forlengelse av Trump-administrasjonens maximum pressure-strategi, som har økt konflikten mellom Iran og USA.
Drømmen om å gjenkristne Europa
The political leadership in Hungary, Poland and Russia talks of protecting Christians abroad - and about saving Europe from itself.
Do peace operations work? And can they protect civilians?
These were some of the questions raised when researchers from the NUPI-led Effectiveness of Peace Operations Network (EPON) shared their insights in Washington, D.C. and New York.
The GeGaLo index: Geopolitical gains and losses after energy transition
This article presents the GeGaLo index of geopolitical gains and losses that 156 countries may experience after a full-scale transition to renewable energy. The following indicators are considered for inclusion in the index: fossil fuel production, fossil fuel reserves, renewable energy resources, governance, and conflict. Some of these represent potential gains; some represent losses; and some the capacity of countries to handle changes in geopolitical strength. Five alternative versions of the index are developed to work out the optimal design. First, the energy resource indicators are combined with equal weights to create two simple versions of the index. Next, governance and conflict indicators are included to create three more complex versions of the index. The index provides useful pointers for strategic energy and foreign policy choices: geopolitical power will be more evenly distributed after an energy transition; Iceland will gain most; Russia may be one of the main holders of stranded geopolitical assets; China and the USA will lose more geopolitically than foreseen by other analyses. The index also indicates a lack of emphasis in parts of the literature on space for renewable energy infrastructure and on domestically sourced coal for the current strength of countries such as China and the United States.