David Petraeus visits NUPI
NUPI had the pleasure of hosting David H. Petraeus on 30. September. The four-star General (Ret) and former director of CIA shared his insights and prognosis for the geopolitical landscape ahead at the event entitled “Global Security Threats and Western Responses”.
China’s Export Success: Due to Unfair Practices or Fair Competition?
Compared with previous ratings, China’s trade policy today is more positively acknowledged. Yet, China can still be criticised in particular because of its non-transparent subsidy policy, the privileged role of state-owned enterprises, the heavy hand of the state in general, the sluggish enforcement of intellectual property rights, and the prevalence of non-tariff barriers. Yet, it cannot be ignored that Chinese entrepreneurship mentality is highly developed outside state interference in world markets. Especially, in the digital economy, high motivation and a large pool of human skills act as drivers of innovations, so far mainly process innovations. The trade war with the US hurts China and is responded by China with asymmetrical retaliation. The more Chinese exports to the US in total are affected, the more costs will have to be borne by US consumers as options to shift to alternative suppliers become weaker. What President Trump would see as a “good” deal for the US is unclear. It can be thus presumed that the trade war will continue into 2020 and that it is in fact a tech war. The EU is affected as EU companies produce in China for the US market and in the US for the Chinese market. While it might gain from trade diversion effects in the short run, the negative effects on investment due to uncertainty weigh more heavily. The EU is tempted to negotiate a free trade agreement with China but rightly refuses to start negotiations before China is prepared to conclude an agreement on investment. The EU should not see China and the US on equidistance. Workable relations with the US are much more important. To conclude, China’s trade policy has improved relative to Western standards but still warrants further steps towards much less state influence. Yet, its global competiveness especially in the state-of-the-art digital economy is high and is owed to a strong entrepreneurial mentality.
Introduction
This is the introductory chapter of a book that investigates the impact of information and communication technologies (ICTs) on development and well-being (beyond economic benefits). The book highlights key issues relating to the realities, constraints and digital divides with particular reference to India. It collects a series of novel contributions, studying the Indian experience in an international cross-country perspective. The book also discusses economic, social, and behavioural aspects of well-being as well as access to ICTs across regions, states and individuals to account for the digital divide. The book establishes an aggregate relationship between ICT exposure and well-being at the country level and addresses a number of fundamental issues, such as whether ICT raises the level of transparency and governance. Based on case studies and anecdotal evidence, it then further assesses the effective implementation of service delivery through ICT innovations. The introductory chapter surveys the literature and presents background information on the Indian case; introduces the main themes on the relationships between ICT, socio-economic development and digital divides; and provides a summary and roadmap to the chapters of the book. While the book has a main focus on India, various contributions take an international cross-country comparative perspective, and the results have general relevance for digitalisation and development. On the whole, the main message of this book is that the impact of ICTs is contingent upon other assets, capabilities and institutional conditions. National policies should, therefore, not only promote digitalization as such but also ensure its co-evolution and complementarity with a variety of other country-specific factors.
Digitalisation and Development: Issues for India and Beyond
This book investigates the impact of information and communication technologies (ICTs) on development and well-being (beyond economic benefits) and highlights some emerging issues relating to the realities, constraints and digital divides with particular reference to India. It collects a series of novel contributions, studying the Indian experience in an international cross-country perspective. The book also discusses economic, social, and behavioural aspects of well-being as well as access to ICTs across regions, states and individuals to account for the digital divide. The book establishes an aggregate relationship between ICT exposure and well-being at the country level and addresses a number of fundamental issues, such as whether ICT raises the level of transparency and governance. Based on case studies and anecdotal evidence, it then further assesses the effective implementation of service delivery through ICT innovations. The book is divided into four parts: The introductory part surveys the literature and presents background information on the Indian case; introduces the main themes on the relationships between ICT, socio-economic development and digital divides; and provides a summary and roadmap to the chapters of the book. Part II focuses on the impact of ICT on economic performance, including economic growth, productivity and trade. Part III examines the extent of the digital divides in India, including international, regional as well as inter-personal inequality. Finally, Part IV investigates the impact of ICT on governance, users’ well-being and social outcomes. Combining insights from analyses of a variety of socio-economic dimensions related to digitalisation, this book is relevant for a wide range of scholars and researchers across disciplines, as well as practitioners and policy-makers. While the book has a main focus on India, various contributions take an international cross-country comparative perspective, and the results have general relevance for digitalisation and development. On the whole, the main message of this book is that the impact of ICTs is contingent upon other assets, capabilities and institutional conditions. National policies should, therefore, not only promote digitalization as such but also ensure its co-evolution and complementarity with a variety of other country-specific factors.
Voting for development? Ruling coalitions and literacy in India
Across the world, governments skew the distribution of state resources for political gain. But does such politicisation of resource allocation affect development trajectories in the long run? We focus on the long-term effects of voting for the ruling coalition on primary education in India. Using a close-election instrumental variable design and drawing on a new socio-economic dataset of India's state assembly constituencies in 1971 and 2001, we examine whether areas represented by members of ruling coalitions experienced greater increases in literacy over 30 years. We find no evidence of this being the case, in the overall data or in relevant sub-samples. The null results are precisely estimated, and are consistent across OLS and 2SLS specifications and several robustness checks. These findings suggest the politicised distribution of some funds in the short run does not affect long-term development trajectories.
Top marks for NUPI’s EU project
Reviewers find NUPI-led research on the EU’s crisis response "exceptional"!
China’s Export Success: Due to Unfair Practices or Fair Competition?
The accusations are numerous during the US-China trade war. At this seminar, Professor Rolf J. Langhammer will review the facts of China's trade policy.
New CADGAT Data Reviews on 261 Belt and Road (BRI) Projects in Central Asia
One of the main observations from the research is that nobody really knows what a BRI project is and what it is not.
Pathways that Changed Myanmar
Matthew Mullen’s book provides an impressively detailed and systematic account of how ordinary citizens in Myanmar pursued various pathways to bring about change in a conflict-prone country that was experiencing deep economic stagnation and where polarization in society had been maintained by military rulers for decades. In many ways, the book provides solid ground from which we can understand the recent history of the country’s transformation.
Election 2019: Empowering women, without women?
Japan’s government has put women’s empowerment high on its agenda – but women remain poorly represented in politics, and that shows few signs of changing, writes Wrenn Yennie Lindgren in this op-ed.