Regions

Lebanon on the brink

Gravely affected by the Syrian crisis, Lebanon has managed to remain relatively stable against all odds – despite the influx of some 1.5 million Syrian refugees and internal political crisis involving actors who support opposing Syrian factions. Lebanon’s resilience can be explained by the high opportunity cost of state breakdown for domestic, regional and international political actors. Moreover, international economic assistance, diaspora remittances and informal networks established by refugees help to prevent outright economic breakdown. Yet, stability remains extremely precarious. Important tipping points include (1) the IS strategy of spreading the conflict to Lebanon, and the consequent disintegration of the army along sectarian lines, (2) democratic decline and popular dissatisfaction, (3) Hizbullah’s domestic ambitions and Israeli fears over the group’s growing military power and (4) the potential for frustration between refugees and host communities turning into recurrent violence. However, (5) the slow economic decline and the worsening sanitary conditions stand out as the greatest challenges.

The Norwegian Approach to Afghanistan: Civilian-Military Segregation

China’s Belt and Road Initiative and the New Eurasian Order

As Chinese President Xi Jinping’s signature project, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has redirected the structures and the objectives of both foreign and domestic policy in the PRC. BRI’s goal is primarily economic: to increase trade and investment along China’s periphery by funding and building infrastructure projects. But it is more. Through an analysis of official and semiofficial sources, this policy brief will show that BRI aims to weave neighboring countries into a network of economic, political, cultural, and security relations centered around China. BRI is a new project that is still taking shape. Yet, its objectives are ambitious: Beijing’s grand strategy is to re-constitute the Eurasian regional order with new governance ideas, norms, and rules. The policy brief concludes that European countries should address China’s challenge by stressing their commitment to the normative goals of multilateralism, transparency, accountability, and the rule of law in an open, rule-based global order.

Gender-Based Violence and Access to Justice: Grand Bassa County, Liberia

Liberia has a dual justice system: there is a formal court hierarchy under the judiciary (i.e. a statutory justice system), as well asa system of customary courts. In this project, this report examines the issue of gender-based violence (GBV) in relation o these two systems. This report is based on fieldwork in Grand Bassa County, and builds on qualitative data (interviews and focus groups) and quantitative data (survey). The survey showed that the majority of respondents (96%) have access to forms of local justice, i.e. a justice system that is affordable and nearby. This also corresponds well with our qualitative data. We have identified various challenges as well as potentials with both the customary and the statutory justice systems as regards GBV. First, the statutory system remains largely unavailable to the majority of the Liberian population, for reasons that include costs, travel distance, language and cultural barriers. That being said, the statutory system offers a more standardized procedure, with the potential of ensuring a more gender-equal form of justice compared to many of the customary systems. On the other hand, the customary systems are far more readily available, and are also efficient in handling various kinds of cases. However, there are also limitations, includingthe perceived low legitimacy of traditional authorities among youth as well as among influential organizations and institutions that support international human rights approaches, as women are often subordinate to men in the traditional institutions. Both system have many potentials. The authorities in charge of customary law acknowledge their limitations in handling GBV cases, and many are also motivated to include perspectives from youth and women in today’s Liberia. As the customary systems are available and affordable to most of the populace, there is much to be said for empowering and strengthening their roles and also improving communication with the statutory system. The statutory system is overburdened and could benefit from stronger working relations with the customary system.

Can the Polish shale gas dog still bark? Politics and policy of unconventional hydrocarbons in Poland

EU referendum: the beginning, not the end, of Brexiteers’ problems

On 23 June 2016, Britain voted to leave the European Union. The referendum outcome triggered resignation of Prime Minister David Cameron and his replacement by former Home Secretary Theresa May. This brief enquires into why Cameron lost the referendum battle and what the major challenges facing the new prime minister are. May, who supported the ‘Remain’ campaign, will have to prove that she can deliver Brexit. That will not be an easy task, with obstacles at home and abroad. Scotland and Northern Ire-land voted to remain in the EU, and their reluctance to leave the EU could complicate May’s plans. PM May will also find it difficult to win hearts in Brussels. Britain tested the patience of the EU institutions with its reform demands, and Brussels will be reluctant to make things easier for the UK in Brexit talks. Member-states may be more receptive to Britain’s concerns, but the UK will prob-ably not be offered any special treatment.