Did China Bankroll Russia’s Annexation of Crimea? The Role of Sino-Russian Energy Relations
This chapter is an empirical analysis of energy cooperation between China and Russia, centred on the Ukrainian crisis as a defining event of the partnership. Despite China’s officially neutral political stance on Crimea, the increased frequency of meetings to discuss joint energy projects and the signing of the largest energy deal in world history created the impression that China actively stepped in and supplied the necessary financing to get Russia through sanctions over Crimea and the oil price collapse of 2014–2016. The chapter assesses this hypothesis by examining the long-term trends in lending, investments and trade trends between the two countries, and by taking a closer look at Chinese involvement in four concrete energy projects managed by some of the main Russian energy companies: Power of Siberia, Yamal LNG, Vankor and ESPO. While there is evidence of increased Chinese investments in Russia and a surge of Russian oil imports to China after the annexation, the authors conclude that China was not the major force keeping Russia’s wheels turning during the pre- and post-Crimea years. The involvement of China in the major Russian energy projects was planned and negotiated long before the annexation of Crimea. The authors therefore argue that China did not step in to bankroll Russia after Crimea, instead long-term trends in cooperation simply continued. On the other hand, clearly the long-term growth in cooperation between the two countries reduces Russia’s dependency on the West and provides greater elbowroom for its foreign policy.
Russia: Public Debate and the Petroleum Sector
In Russia, civil society engagement with the petroleum sector is surprisingly rich and varied for a country that is ranked low on most democracy-related indicators. This chapter finds that there is a lively and varied public debate, with business associations, research institutes, independent experts, indigenous organizations and the few surviving independent media actively and often competently analysing and commenting on a broad range of issues related to the oil and gas sector. Russians were early users of social media, which occasionally also function as a platform for discussion of petroleum policy issues. However, the real impact of civil society on decision-making and policy formulation in the petroleum sector is not as great as the diversity of actors and discussion might imply. One key reason is the tight government control over mainstream media outlets. The situation for free speech and civil society worsened steadily from around 2004 to 2016. As in neighbouring Kazakhstan, the Russian population puts a high premium on stability over freedom. While a central concern in this book is whether the media and civil society have any influence on the petroleum sector, in Russia the paradoxical situation is that the relationship is often reversed: the gas company Gazprom, rather than another organizational vehicle, is used by the government to control key mass media; and the oil company Yukos played a central role in promoting civil society until its main owner Mikhail Khodorkovskiy was arrested and the company was carved up.
Like Grandfather, Like Grandson: Kinship as a legitimating force in Japan’s International Relations
This chapter discusses the entrenched trend of hereditary politicians in Japanese politics and how kinship is used as a legitimating force in Japan’s international relations. It illuminates how one Japanese leader has invoked his kinship to both legitimate and promote Japan’s history and foreign policy in diplomatic exchanges. While dynasties in Japanese politics are clearly a domestic issue, the activation of those kinship properties on diplomatic trips across the world transforms them into an inter-state subject.
Codeword China
(From op-ed): When it comes to Arctic regional political governance and economic outlooks, the policy and academic communities have become good at asking ‘what about China’ and facilitating a conversation on several policy issues. All the main Arctic conferences have panels on China in the Arctic in some form or another and there is a small but strong and productive community of scholars analyzing how China approaches the Arctic.
Fighting violent extremism: What can be learned from the North Caucasus?
What factors affect the flow of recruits from the North Caucasus areas to jihadist groups in and outside of Russia?
Managing a Digital Revolution - Cyber Security Capacity Building in Myanmar
Digitalization is exposing developing countries to a growing number of risks, as well as opportunities associated with connecting to the Internet. Myanmar stands out as a critical case of both the pitfalls and the benefits Internet connection can bring. Amidst a political transition from military rule to a functioning democracy Myanmar is adding ICT to key areas like banking and e-government. Having been one of the least connected countries in the world only five years ago the country is now connecting to the Internet at an unprecedented pace, with little or no institutions in place to ensure the transition goes smoothly. Using the framework of Cyber Security Capacity Building (CCB) we examine the risks and potential benefits of Myanmar’s embracement of digital technologies.
How does Russia prepare for a transition of power?
According to the Russian Constitution, the current term is the last for President Putin. How will the Russian political system prepare for the transition of power?
The frustrating nature of international counter-terrorism partnerships
Fighting terrorism requires wide-ranging cooperation between states. What does such cooperation look like in practice, and does it work?
Free Trade Agreements and Globalisation. In the Shadow of Brexit and Trump. (E-book)
The book provides a comprehensive analysis of free trade agreements (FTAs); their number, content and impact. It examines trade and FTAs for the whole world, split into seven major regions. The book presents a new numerical model of world trade, with results from 110 countries and regions. The results shed light on the impact of FTA, as well as the growth of China and the value of trade in general. The book also contains analysis of the sub-regional impact of trade and trade policy for large nations. It also includes some teaching material.
Ideologenes kamp
(Norwegian only): To innflytelsesrike ideologer – en russisk, en amerikansk – bygger høyreradikale nettverk i Europa. Selv om ideologien springer ut fra like kilder, har de ulike visjoner.