Publications
Indonesia: How to Boost Investment in Renewable Energy
Indonesia, the largest country in Southeast Asia, has considerable renewable energy potential. However, this potential remains largely underexploited. Fossil fuel subsidies are a major obstacle to the deployment of renewable energy on a large scale. Investment in renewable energy is limited compared to some regional peers. For instance, Vietnam attracted USD 5.2 billion of investment in renewables in 2018, while Indonesia drew only USD 0.8 billion. We propose six actions that could help Indonesia accelerate the expansion of renewables: remove subsidies for fossil fuels; establish a ministry of renewable energy; prioritise renewables in the regulatory framework; improve and streamline grid management; mobilise domestic banks to support renewable energy; prioritise market entry for investors.
Cambodia: Five Actions to Improve the Business Climate for Renewable Energy Investment
Cambodia has not attracted significant investment in renewable energy until mid-2020 and, unlike other ASEAN countries, has not set exact renewable energy targets. Despite this, the country is viewed as a model to learn from for other ASEAN countries implementing solar power auctions. In order to keep up this momentum and attract more investment, Cambodia needs to address a number of persistent gaps in its investment climate. We propose five actions that may have strong immediate benefits and make Cambodia’s business climate for renewable energy more attractive: prioritise renewables in the energy governance system; request support from IRENA for capacity building; adopt targets and develop a regulatory framework; enhance project bankability; improve market entry for foreign investors.
Pathways towards a revitalised Africa-Europe strategic partnership
The African Union and European Union were scheduled to adopt a new strategic partnership agreement at an AU-EU summit in October 2020, but it had to be postponed due to COVID-19 risks and related delays. This may be a blessing in disguise, as it gives the negotiators more time to adapt the relationship to COVID-19 and to craft an agreement that expands the focus, scope and scale of African-European relations for the next two decades.
Offensive cyberoperasjoner: Den nye normalen?
Can states retaliate if they get digitally attacked in peace-time? What are states doing and what does international law say about this? What are the potential security implications of an eventual increase in the use of offensive cyber operations?
Why Choose to Cycle in a Middle-Income Country?
Research on the adoption of the bicycle as a means of transport has been booming in high-income countries. However, little is known about bicycle adoption in lower-income countries where air pollution is high and cycling infrastructure is poor. Understanding the drivers of cycling adoption in developing economies can increase the efficiency of transport policies while reducing local air pollution, improving health, and cutting greenhouse gas emissions. The objective of this study is to identify the factors affecting cycling uptake in a low-income country using the city of Bishkek in Kyrgyzstan as a case study. The analysis is based on the Theory of Planned Behavior, a questionnaire-based survey of 900 respondents, factor analysis, and a logit model. In contrast to studies carried out in developed countries, this study finds that students are less likely to adopt cycling than other population groups. Other findings suggest that support for public transport, a desire for regular exercise and perceptions of the environmental benefits of cycling increase the probability of the use of cycling as a mode of transport in a low-income country. The paper also identifies positive and negative perceptions of cycling among cyclists and non-cyclists.
Energy democracy as a process, an outcome and a goal: A conceptual review
‘Energy democracy’ has evolved from a slogan used by activists demanding a greater say in energy-related decision-making to a term used in policy documents and scholarly literature on energy governance and energy transitions. This article reviews the academic literature using a combination of three methodological elements: (1) keyword searches of major bibliographical databases for quantification purposes; (2) an innovative method referred to as ‘circulation tracing’ to assess impact; and (3) in-depth discussion of the theoretical underpinnings, implications and interconnections of different parts of the literature. A conceptual framework is developed around three divergent understandings of the term ‘energy democracy’: (1) a process driven forwards by a popular movement; (2) an outcome of decarbonisation; and (3) a goal or ideal to which stakeholders aspire. The review also highlights some weaknesses of the literature: fragmentation between its European and American branches, which barely relate to each other; implicit or absent linkages between ‘energy democracy’ and broader theories of democracy; a tendency to idealise societal grassroots; confusion about the roles of the state, private capital and communities; and lack of attention to the threat posed by energy populism. Proponents should not assume that more energy democracy will inherently mean faster decarbonisation, improved energy access or social wellbeing. Finally, more emphasis should be placed on the role of research in providing evidence to ground energy democracy-related analyses and discussions.
Russian Oil Companies in an Evolving World: The Challenge of Change
This book examines Russia’s capacity to respond to a changing world through the lens of the country’s oil industry. Against a backdrop of social, political and climatic change, Indra Overland and Nina Poussenkova present a systematic analysis of how modern energy developments in the form of shale oil, offshore oil and the global energy transition are handled.
Populism, historical discourse and foreign policy: the case of Poland’s Law and Justice government
This article analyses how, in Poland, the populist political orientation of the ruling party (Law and Justice—PiS) has coloured the historical discourse of the government and has affected, in turn, its foreign policy and diplomatic relations. We argue that the historical discourse of the PiS government is a reflection of the party’s reliance on populism as a political mode of articulation in that it seeks to promote a Manichean, dichotomic and totalizing re-definition of the categories of victim, hero and perpetrator—and of Poland’s roles in this trinity. The article details the direct and indirect repercussions of PiS populist-inspired historical posture on Poland’s foreign policy by analysing its policies towards—and relations with—Ukraine and Germany. As such, the article sheds light on the under-explored links between populism and historical memory and makes a contribution to the nascent scholarship on the foreign policy of populist governments.
Complexities of Achieving Strategic Stability in Southern Asia: An Indian Perspective
The concept of strategic stability provides a framework for strengthening security in the nuclear age. This report explores the possibilities and constraints for achieving strategic stability in South Asia. The strained relationship between India, on the one hand, and Pakistan and China on the other makes it challenging to achieve such stability. Nevertheless, it is important to explore new options in a region that is frequently exposed to crises, and where some countries have nuclear weapons strategies that rely manipulating risks to bolster deterrence. The report discusses various measures that could weaken incentives for using nuclear weapons.
Predict and prevent: overcoming early warning implementation challenges in UN peace operations
The UN has made progress in the adoption of new technologies to predict and prevent local violence. To maintain the momentum, it needs to continue to innovate to be able to serve people in need faster, better, and more efficiently. The UN will need to find a way to analyse the enormous amount of data it produces every day. Machine learning to detect patterns in these data and produce early warnings holds great promise in this regard. However, the use of new technologies is not without risk. Collected data can fall into the wrong hands. With budget cuts missions have been forced to reduce their footprint in the field, increasing the reliance on technology. New technology also requires new types of specialist expertise to manage data, and better understanding among all staff of how data should be managed, vetted and put to use. Some have expressed concerns about the use of technologies being at the expense of face-to-face engagements, ultimately resulting in peacekeeping efforts that are divorced from realities on the ground. From a practical point of view, the UN will also have to resolve an uneasy tension between enabling access to these data in order to conduct data-driven early warning analyses on the one hand and the need to prevent any data breaches on the other hand.