Publications
Krig i en verden av fremmed intelligens
This chapter investigates a number of issues related to the ongoing debates around artificial intelligence and its impact on the future of geopolitics and warfare. Through insights from science and technology studies (STS), the chapter seeks to question common assumptions in political science about the relationship between technology, war and politics. It will be argued that political science's treatment of these as independent elements and the subsequent simplified notions of technological and socio-political change must be altered in favor of a more inclusive way of thinking about socio-technical practices. This will improve our understanding of the war-technology relationship while providing a more fertile ground for discussing changes in the wake of the development of artificial intelligence.
The unsolicited rocket: a story of science, technology, and future wars
This article investigates the puzzling case of the unsolicited rocket: a Norwegian research establishment successfully developed a weapon system that no one wanted or had asked for that was later widely adopted. We argue that the ‘Terne’ weapon existed not because it was needed based on rational calculations about efficiency, but because of the narratives, coalitions, and competitive dynamics that surrounded it and made it useful. Conventionally, war and technology are often considered distinct ‘things’ with immutable essences, used as variables to explain other phenomena, rather than being examined on their own terms. In this case, we focus empirically on the configuration of sociotechnical imaginaries, and the capacities for action that arise out of it. In foregrounding sociotechnical systems, this is not a case of the ‘militarization’ of civilian society and research in peacetime. Rather, agency lay in competitive networks of narratives and coalitions between technologies, individuals, professions, technological communities, military organizations, and funding bodies, together shaping how ideas and technologies become authoritative and dominant.
Europeisk helsesamarbeid etter covid-19 pandemien
Covid-19 pandemien er en av de største krisene i verden etter 1945. I Europa ble nasjonale myndigheter og EU-systemet utfordret med tanke på hvordan krisen skulle håndteres. Særlig i de første fasene av pandemien var det stor variasjon i valgene av virkemidler. Landene innførte en rekke inngripende tiltak som fikk negative konsekvenser på tvers av landegrensene, blant annet for familiebesøk mellom land, arbeidsmobilitet, vareflyt, og forsyningssikkerhet. EU responderte i 2020 på krisen med å foreslå en styrking av helsesamarbeidet generelt, og beredskaps- og krisehåndteringskapasiteten spesielt. I dette notatet ser vi nærmere på EUs helsesamarbeid og mulige implikasjoner for Norge av arbeidet med å styrke dette samarbeidet i kjølvannet av pandemien.
Finland and Sweden’s Path Towards NATO
The failure of deterrence and the outbreak of war in Ukraine should be a wakeup call to the Nordic governments to create a more robust and coherent deterrence and defence posture across the region. To ensure security and stability, all the states on Russia’s northwest flank must further advance the regional agenda from intertwined tactical and operational defence cooperation towards more a compelling deterrence strategy, write Per Erik Solli and Øystein Solvang.
Den norske Atlanterhavskomité: Spranget inn i fremtiden
Europe is at war. Putin's attack on Ukraine on February 24, 2022 marks a turning point in European security. The war is also a preliminary climax in Russian revisionism, which dates back to 1990 and became more marked from 2007 and 2014. Some saw the war coming. From October 2021, insightful analysts and actors in intelligence and decision-making circles in the United States, NATO Belgium and some circles in Norway became increasingly confident that war was on the way. The inner circles had access to very good intelligence. People in positions with deep insight into Russian history watched with growing concern as Russia's bloodthirsty imperial tradition resurfaced, brutal and unadorned - this unpleasant habit of Romanovs and communists to devour neighbors. People in positions with broad knowledge of both literature and governance saw that the authoritarian Russian regime moved in a totalitarian direction and isolated itself, something we recognize from other totalitarian regimes. Experts in the public sphere did not see war as likely, with some exceptions. It was not rational, sort of. Nor had they imagined that the Soviet empire would fall apart. We see what we have seen before: That experts are best at explaining in retrospect why things went the way they did. And that they blame the politicians for not reacting in time. No one knows how long the war will last and how long Putin's Russia will remain a pariah. It is noted that a number of European leaders are working to create peace, several of them in such a way that they themselves can shine. Here we will look beyond the war itself and have a special eye on traditional power and interest politics: What are the long-term challenges and threats of significance to Norway? How should we organize our security policy and our defense? This is a time of great challenges, but also many opportunities. Crises create opportunities. There is an opportunity to make Norway better equipped to handle major changes in geopolitics and technology. We will dwell on the surroundings, especially Russia and the north. We will discuss the Nordic region in NATO as a security policy project. We will discuss the Armed Forces' design, especially the ability to think consistently from thought to action. And we will finally present five bold postulates, which transcend conventional thinking, about what Norway will be able to prioritize in the years ahead.
Revisiting nuclear hedging: ballistic missiles and the Iranian example
Technological shifts have made nascent nuclear arsenals more vulnerable. In this article, Henrik Stålhane Hiim argues that this provides “nuclear hedgers” – states that deliberately seeking to develop the ability to go nuclear – with strong incentives to acquiring ballistic missiles. The article illustrates this tendency through a case-study of the Iranian missile and rocket programs. It finds that missile acquisition has indeed been an integral part of Iran's hedging strategy, and that several of the systems it has acquired indicate an interest in nuclear weapons delivery.
RESOLVED: Japan Should Maintain Investments in Russian Oil and Gas Projects
In this issue of Debating Japan, experts assess Japan’s investments in Russian oil and gas and whether Japan should fully divest from Russian energy.
UN Peacekeeping Operations at a Crossroads: The Implementation of Protection Mandates in Contested and Congested Spaces
The Protection of Civilians remains a critical feature of United Nations (UN) peacekeeping operations, offering unique support to populations at risk in fragile and failing states, with a focus on long-term stability and peace. Hosting nations are, however, increasingly engaging the support of bilaterally deployed forces and private military contractors to achieve military and security objectives, often at the expense of existing peace and diplomatic processes and human rights. Adapting and responding to these changing environments is essential for UN missions in terms of retaining their relevance and realising their mandated protection objectives. This requires improved support and resource allocation and improved utilisation of existing resources. Drawing on in-depth interviews and conversations with representatives of UN peacekeeping operations and UN Headquarters, this report explores challenges and opportunities in the implementation of protection mandates of four multi-dimensional peacekeeping operations, namely, MINUSCA, MINUSMA, MONUSCO, and UNMISS. It offers insights into contextual challenges arising from the volatility of the environments in which they work and internal challenges related to the complex nature of jointly implementing civilian, military, and police protection activities. Given the crossroads UN peacekeeping operations find themselves at, the report provides forward-looking recommendations and encourages reflection and flexibility to support enhanced engagement on key protection issues that are integral to international peace and security.
Global networks in national governance? Changes of professional expertise in Amazon environmental governance
In 2019, wildfires in the Amazon renewed international concern about Brazilian environmental policy, led by Jair Bolsonaro. As one of the biggest repositories of the world's biodiversity, the Amazon Rainforest has been a source of concern in global environmental governance. Given this salience, one would expect that domestic governance would be highly permeated by professionals with international circulation and that transnational ties would be a central target of Bolsonaro's populist nationalistic perspective. In this article, I seek to understand whether and how professionals involved in policymaking in the Brazilian Ministry of the Environment are connected to national and international organizations, by analyzing the networks of career paths of high-ranking staff in the Rousseff, Temer and Bolsonaro administrations. The data show a consistently low percentage of ties between professionals and international organizations. However, the types of international experience and knowledge that are deemed important shifted significantly under Bolsonaro. This publication is part of the Market for Anarchy project.
Re-imagining African—Nordic relations in a changing global order
This study asks how the special relationship between countries in Africa and the Nordic region may be affected by a changing global order, that the African-Nordic cooperation can continue to evolve and remain relevant for both regions. The meeting in Helsinki on 14 June 2022 is the 20th meeting of the forum of African–Nordic Foreign Ministers. The forum was established in 2000 between five Nordic countries and ten African countries. It was intended to emphasize the political importance of Africa and to demonstrate that Africa–Nordic relations went beyond development cooperation. The forum meets alternately and rotates among African and Nordic countries and African hosts have included Benin, Botswana, Mozambique, Nigeria, South Africa and Tanzania. The number of African countries expanded over time and now numbers around 25. The annual meeting is an opportunity to consolidate the special relationship between African and Nordic countries and creates a space where political issues of mutual concern can be discussed. As such, it has helped to broaden the African–Nordic relations beyond development cooperation and towards a more politically-oriented and interest-based strategic partnership. Beyond the annual foreign ministers meeting, the other aspect the report looks into is what the sum-total of African-Nordic bilateral relations in the areas of trade, development, peace and security and multilateral cooperation reveals about the status of the overall relationship. Africa pursues strategic partnerships that helps it to develop and strengthen the continent’s economic potential, political identity, and its role on the global stage. In this study we pay particular attention to Africa’s relationship with China, Europe, India, Russia and Turkey. One of the dominant features of Africa’s international relations has been its non-alignment. African countries have been careful to seek partnerships with many different states and regions, without being pulled into any one alliance that may prevent it from also gaining support for its development from others. Therefore, in its strategic partnerships, African countries seeks engagements that will help it to grow its economies.