Publications
Energy Transition in Central Asia: A Systematic Literature Review
While there is abundant research on the expansion of renewable energy in developed countries, little attention has been paid to the decarbonisation of energy systems in Central Asia, despite the region’s vulnerability to climate change, its rapidly growing domestic energy demand and the abundance of natural resources essential for the energy transition. Based on a systematic review of the literature, this chapter provides a comprehensive overview of the profile and trajectory of research on energy in Central Asia between 1991 and 2022. It finds that there was a shift from focusing on fossil fuels to clean energy around 2019–2020. However, despite recent growth, research on renewables and their significance in Central Asia is still sparse. This review indicates that while American and European researchers took the lead in this field in 2012, China, Japan, Kazakhstan and Russia have emerged as the leading contributors since 2016.
Oppfattet risiko og beredskap: Misforhold mellom kompetanse og antatt kunnskap om potensielle risikoer?
Vellykket kriseforebygging er avhengig av at ansatte i selskapene kan forutse og vurdere potensielle risikoer. Det skal være en sammenheng mellom hvor god beredskap de ansatte oppfatter at bedriften har for å håndtere fremtidige risikoer, og hvor sofistikert risikostyringssystemet er. Regnskapsbransjen er særlig utsatt for effektene av digitalisering (se f.eks. Frey og Osborne 2013). Vi har derfor analysert små og mellomstore norske regnskapsbyråer for å finne ut hvilken sammenheng det er mellom de ansattes opplevelse av selskapets risikoberedskap og hvor sofistikert risikostyringen er. Resultatene fra en spørreundersøkelse med 81 respondenter viser at respondentene kan grupperes i fire klynger. Empirien viser at det for noen selskaper ser ut til at jo mer sofistikerte risikostyringssystemene er, jo mindre forberedt er selskapene på å håndtere disse risikoene (og motsatt). Vi diskuterer dette ut fra den såkalte Dunning-Kruger-effekten, dvs. at mennesker som mangler kompetanse på et område er uvitende om sin manglende kompetanse. Våre funn indikerer at respondentenes oppfatning av sitt eget selskaps risikosystem og beredskap ikke alltid stemmer overens med virkeligheten. I flere tilfeller viste det seg at beredskapen og risikosystemet var langt svakere, noe som kan lede til finansielle tap. Dette kan i seg selv medføre en risiko. For å redusere denne risikoen kan bedrifter ta i bruk scenariostyring som et supplement til tradisjonell virksomhetsstyring for å forbedre sin beredskap.
Critical Materials for Development: A New Trajectory for Norwegian Foreign Aid Policy
After over a year of war in Ukraine, the world experienced dramatic and negative ripple effects related to food, energy security and commodity markets. Global food and energy shortages are now leading to social instability, protests and conflict and putting increasing pressure on public finances. For instance, prices of basics such as oil and wheat are rising and resulting in severe food shortages in Egypt, Lebanon and Somalia. Low-income countries are likely to be hit hardest by increasing food and energy prices in the long run. As the war continues, various second- and third-order negative effects are likely to intensify.
Criticism of the UK’s Rwanda Policy Misrepresents African Agency
While much of the controversy around the UK–Rwanda partnership is understandable, African perspectives are too often missing from the debate.
Escaping the Long Shadow of Homo Sovieticus: Reassessing Stalin’s Popularity and Communist Legacies in Post-Soviet Russia
It is often asserted that the values and attitudes of Homo Sovieticus, marked in the rising “popularity” of Stalin, live on in contemporary Russia, acting as a negative factor in social and political development. This article critiques the argument that attitudes to Stalin reflect unreformed Soviet values and explain Russia’s authoritarian regression and failed modernization. Our critique of this legacy argument has three parts. First, after examining the problematic elements of the Levada Center approach, we offer alternative explanations for understanding quantitative data on Stalin and the repressions. Second, we examine interview data showing that, for those with a pro-Stalin position, “defending Stalin” is only a small part of a broader worldview that is not obviously part of a “Soviet legacy.” Third, we consider survey data from the trudnaia-pamiat’ project and find common reluctance to discuss much of the Stalinist past, which we argue represents an agonistic stance. Thus, we interpret attitudes to Stalin within a broader context of complex social and cultural transformation where the anomie of the 1990s has been replaced with dynamics toward a more positive identity construct. On the one hand, the antagonistic mode of memory is visible in statist and patriotic discourses, which do not seriously revolve around Stalin but do resist strong criticism of him. On the other hand, we find many more in Russia avoid the Stalin question and adopt an agonistic mode, avoiding conflict through a “de- politicized” version of history.
Cooperation in an Era of Strategic CompetitionEU-NATO Relations in the Context of War and Rivalry
This Policy Brief looks at the growing relations and cooperation between the European Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). It does so in the context of a return to war in Europe and growing strategic rivalry between the United States (US) and China. Europeans have long been called to take on more responsibility for their own defence and there is a window of opportunity to build these relations sooner rather than later.
Noen har hevdet at mitt moralske kompass er gått i stykker
Jeg forsøker å skjønne hvorfor Kreml handler som det gjør. Er det virkelig det samme som å støtte disse handlingene?
Failing through: European migration governance across the central Mediterranean
Both today and under Gaddafi’s authoritarian rule, externalised migration controls have played a crucial role in EUropean irregular mobility governance across the Central Mediterranean. Offloading migration management on Tripoli is puzzling due to the fragility of its institutions, the ill-preparedness of its security forces, and widespread abuse against migrants. Why have European member states and EU institutions relapsed to relying on Libyan forces to govern irregular migration? In this paper, we argue that the EU has failed through the migration crisis in the Central Mediterranean by drawing on already established albeit ineffective and contentious policy tools. The collapse of Libya’s state apparatus, European Court of Human Rights’ censure of Italy’s illegal pushbacks and public opinion pressure temporarily displaced but did not fundamentally change EUrope’s restrictive approach to irregular mobility governance. While some new and less restrictive border enforcement policies were developed in response to the soaring death toll, this humanitarian turn was short-lived. By combining the mechanism of failing forward with institutionalist insights, our concept of failing through explains why the EU and its member states soon backslid into pre-existing institutional arrangements like bilateral agreements with Libyan authorities notwithstanding their problematic legal, ethical and political implications.
Beroligelse 2.0: Teori, praksis og rammevilkår i en ny tid
Konseptet beroligelse utgjør en del av «arvesølvet» i norsk sikkerhetspolitikk. Russlands siste invasjon av Ukraina har aktualisert debatten om den «klassiske» beroligelsen: de selvpålagte begrensningene på alliert militær aktivitet i Norge. I denne artikkelen forstås beroligelse som mer enn det å «slipe ned» den alliansebaserte avskrekkingen. Konseptuelt er det er derfor hensiktsmessig å skille mellom to typer beroligelse: passiv og aktiv. En konseptuell oppdatering vil være nyttig for å forstå beroligelsens ulike form(er), mulige effekt(er) og konseptets fortsatte relevans i Norges forhold til Russland – i en tid der den teknologiske utviklingen og markante geopolitiske endringer endrer rammevilkårene og forutsetningene som beroligelse er tuftet på. En mer spesifisert forståelse av konseptet inkluderer en bredere del av norsk utenrikspolitikk – både i teori og i praksis – og inkluderer en rekke samarbeids- og konfliktflater i det norsk-russiske forholdet som går ut over den «klassiske» beroligelsen. Denne artikkelen argumenterer ut fra premisset om at vi ikke vet om beroligelse virker etter hensikten. Beroligelse, et konsept som i utgangspunktet bygget på etterkrigstids-realismens verdenssyn og logikk, bør derfor også analyseres med andre teoretiske «linser» som kan gi bedre forståelse av effektene av de ulike formene for beroligelse i en verden med andre rammevilkår enn da Holst lanserte konseptet.