Publications
Norges sikkerhetspolitiske utfordringer i nordområdene
I foredraget som notatet er en gjengivelse av, stilles spørs-målet om en av de sikkerhetspolitiske utfordringene for oss i nord kanskje ligger på det mentale plan hos oss selv. Det pekes på tilvente tenkemåter fra den kalde krigen som kan virke tilslørende i forhold til nye utfordringer. Blant annet vises det til den tillærte tilbøyelighet til å regne med NATO og alli-ert hjelp i tilfelle vi skulle råke ille ut. Samtidig vises det til at NATOs tidlig-ere så sterke fokus mot områdene i nord er borte og at alliansen i dag ikke bare er vesentlig endret, men at selve dens tilværelse også er mer utrygg. Spørsmålet reises om en av våre fremste utfordringer i nord er at vi risi-kerer å bli stående mer alene enn forutsett overfor enkelte andre utfordrin-ger som kan melde seg der. I tilknytning til dette pekes det på at den inter-nasjonale orden i en periode fremover nå kan bli sterkere preget av makt til fortrengsel for rett enn vi har vennet oss til.
Industrial heterogeneity of the ICT industry : An exploratory survey on Norwegian firms
The paper presents evidence from a limited survey undertaken among Norwegian ICT firms in 2001, supplemented with other statistical evidence. Corresponding to the limited production of ICT hardware in Norway, the hardware firms covered by the survey were dominated by sales outlets of foreign firms. While these firms are on average small and with a modest skill requirement, some of them are larger and more skill-intensive due to the provision of related software and services. Within-firm learning, higher education as well as sector- and industry-wide knowledge externalities generally matter to IT firms. Education is ranked third, and is more important for software and services than for hardware. Knowledge externalities are less important for foreign-owned firms. 2/3 of the firms surveyed produce various combinations of hardware, software and services, with software+services as the most frequent combination, composed by firms that are on average clearly larger than the sample average. Such firms rely more on learning within the firms and less on sectorwide knowledge externalities than other IT firms. Adaptation of products to individual customers is important for many IT goods, and implies that e.g. imported software frequently generates substantial domestic employment in related services. The survey tentatively suggests that such complementarities in production may be an important aspect of IT production. Norwegian IT exports are generally small, but pure software producers in the sample had larger exports.
Rammevilkår for norsk fiskeeksport
I en spørreundersøkelse ble 81 norske sjømateksportører også bedt om å kommentere ulike rammevilkår for eksporten. Dette notat oppsummerer resultatene fra denne del av undersøkelsen, uten å gjennomføre en full evaluering av de enkelte tiltak. Resultatene viser at toll og handelshindringer oppfattes som viktigst av ulike rammevilkår. Markedsføring og informasjon om handelshindringer fra EFF (Eksportutvalget for fisk) er også viktig for bedriftene, mens EFFs informasjon om enkeltmarkeder er lavere verdsatt. Mens mange norske sjømateksportører – spesielt små bedrifter - anvender GIEKs eksportkredittgarantier, mener en del av dem at GIEKs tilbud i markeder med høy risiko er for begrenset. Notatet reiser spørsmål om hvorvidt eksportfremmende tiltak i større grad bør rettes inn mot nye markeder i startfasen.
EUs utvidelse og handelsvilkårene for norsk fiskeeksport
Notatet analyserer hvordan tollbelastningen for norsk sjømateksport til søkerlandene kan påvirkes av EUs utvidelse. Norge har frihandelsavtaler med 11 av de 13 søkerlandene, og som følge av dette er tollen for fiskeeksport til disse landene null i de fleste tilfeller. Dersom EUs toll innføres for disse landene, øker tollen til 8.5% i gjennomsnitt fordi eksporten særlig består av varer med høy EU-toll (pelagisk fisk). I tillegg blir Norges konkurranseposisjon svekket fordi EU-landene får null toll istedenfor en tollbelastning på 5-8% i dag. Dersom Norge ikke får kompensasjon for økt toll, kan det føre til en betydelig reduksjon i eksporten. Ved tidligere EUutvidelser har imidlertid Norge fått kompensasjon, stort sett i form av tollfrie kvoter. Notatet argumenterer for at dette er sannsynlig også denne gang, selv om det juridisk sett ikke er helt selvsagt. Muligens vil en generell tollreduksjon være bedre enn tollfrie kvoter, fordi kvoter skaper byråkrati og ikke kan tilpasses endringer i handelsmønsteret.
Virkninger for norsk fiskerinæring av en ny forhandlingsrunde i WTO : Simulerte reduksjoner i handelsrestriksjoner i den internasjonale likevektsm...
En ny forhandlingsrunde i WTO kan medføre betydelige tollreduksjoner for fiskerinæringen. Dette vil bedre eksportmulighetene for Norge i mange markeder, men samtidig undergrave den tollfordel Norge har i EU-markedet i forhold til en del konkurrenter. Resultatene fra en analyse med den internasjonale likevektsmodellen GTAP med verden inn-delt i 26 regioner, viser at dersom bare tollen for fisk blir redusert i WTO, øker samlet eks-port-verdi av fisk for Norge. Handelen med EU går imidlertid noe ned, men dette kompenseres ved høyere eksport til resten av verden. Tollreduksjoner i andre sektorer som følge av WTO-forhandlingene kan endre utfallet. Liberalisering av landbrukssektoren vrir konsumetter-spørs-elen fra fisk mot landbruksvarer, og dette bidrar til mindre eksport av fisk. Liberalisering på industri-området fører til økt eksport av fisk fordi verdens inntektsnivå øker.
Transition from socialism - the corruption heritage
The paper explores the apparently high incidence of corruption in those former socialist countries where the Communist Party lost power. It argues that part of the explanation of the high corruption incidence is to be sought in the simultaneous production decline which gives rise to a Schumpeter effect, where former bureaucrats are becoming corruption entrepreneurs. Another important factor is the swift change in the ruling norms giving rise to a Huntington effect an overshooting of the applicability of the market mechanism. An important driver of both effects is the monetation of the centralised multitiered bartering system of the old socialist economies. That process is briefly compared to older forms of market expansion into decentralised non-market agricultural economies as analysed by Polanyi and Marx.
Remarks on Private-to-private corruption
The OECD’s Anti-Bribery Convention may be regarded as the strongest international expression of the recent recognition of corruption as a major global issue. The convention aims to contain trans-border corruption by making it illegal for citizens and enterprises located in the countries that have signed the convention to get involved in corrupt transactions with officials abroad. Working out the convention the legal regulation of transborder corruption has become harmonised across countries. Given the initial success, the question has been raised whether the convention should be extended or modified in some way. New policy instruments have been proposed; greater precision in how to deal with middlemen has been urged. In this note I will only deal with issues related to the question of whether the scope of the convention should be increased to deal with private-to-private corruption, that is, should it be forbidden to bribe private officials abroad and should the laws that pertain to the matter be harmonised across countries and made compatible with the internal laws that regulate the matters in each country? In the following I will not go into the legal questions, however, and mainly deal with rather general economic issues.
Sunk costs in the exporting activity: Implications for international trade and specialisation
International trade costs may be sunk and not proportional to sales. The paper explores this theoretically, by allowing firms to invest in sales channels or marketing in order to increase demand in each market. The returns to such investments will, ceteris paribus, be higher in markets with lower variable trade costs (e.g. transport costs). Firms will therefore invest and sell more at home than in foreign markets, and more in foreign markets with low variable trade costs. Sunk export costs will therefore amplify the trade-reducing impact of other trade barriers, and dampen the «home market effect» whereby large countries tend to be net exporters of differentiated goods.
Strengthening Cooperative Threat Reduction with Russia : The Norwegian Experience
Many nuclear safety and security challenges remain in Northwest Russia. Years of international cooperation – and substantial funding – are required to deal with the legacy of the extensive nuclear activities of the Cold War. Among the more urgent projects that call for international attention are the safe dismantling of nuclear attack submarines and clean-up at naval storage facilities, e.g. at Andreeva Bay. For nearly a decade, Norway and other countries have been working cooperatively with Russia to improve the situation. While important progress has been made, much of the foreign support has come with some hard-learned experiences. However, the dialog established, the cooperative framework institutionalized, and today’s understanding of the respective concerns, priorities, and practices of the actors involved should create a sound basis for new rounds of cooperative and concerted efforts to limit the persistent nuclear security and safety risks in the region. In this report, past and ongoing activities for remedial actions in Northwest Russia are assessed, and suggestions for continued and improved cooperation are presented. The survey has been conducted as part of the Norwegian contribution to the international research consortium on «Strengthening the Global Partnership: Protecting Against the Spread of Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Weapons».