Publications
Conventional arms control on the Korean Peninsula: The current state and prospects
At the end of 2017, the Korean Peninsula reached the brink of a nuclear war, as the US president Donald Trump and the North Korean leader Kim Jong-un exchanged words of nuclear threats each other. A tug of war as to whose nuclear button is bigger and stronger exacerbated the nuclear crisis. However, the South Korean President Moon Jae-in intervened to resolve the crisis by taking advantage of the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics. In doing so, President Moon intended to pursue denuclearisation and peace-building on the Korean Peninsula at the same time. North Korean Chairman Kim Jong-un responded positively to the South Korean call to hold the inter-Korean summit and the Trump-Kim summit. In order to end the Korean war and promote peace-building on the Korean Peninsula including termination of hostile acts on inter-Korean relations, the two Koreas adopted the April 27 Panmunjom Declaration, the September 19th Pyongyang Joint Declaration and the Inter-Korean Military Agreement at their summit in 2018. The Military Agreement is aimed at reducing tension and building trust between the two Koreas through conventional arms control, while the North Korean nuclear issue is being resolved through the US-DPRK summit. The September 19th Military Agreement is a modest but remarkable success in arms control history when compared with a long-term stalemate or even retreat in the contemporary international arms control arena. Indeed, arms control is at its lowest point in history, so dim are its prospects. Nevertheless, heated debates are taking place, both at home inside South Korea and abroad, over the legitimacy and rationality of the Sept. 19th Military Agreement. With little progress on the denuclearisation issue at the Kim-Trump summit and no sign of easing economic sanctions on Pyongyang, North Korea has test-fired short-range missiles ten times to exert pressure on the United States, undermining peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula. Against this backdrop, this policy brief intends to analyse the true meaning of the September 19 Military Agreement between the two Koreas, to identify its problems and policy implications in order to draw up supplementary measures to implement it successfully. Furthermore, the paper will draw some implications for the relationship between progress on North Korea’s denuclearisation issue and further conventional arms control on the Korean Peninsula.
Forsvarets langtidsplan til ompuss
(Op-ed in Norwegian only): The parliament sent the proposed long-term plan for the armed forces back to the government. In this op-ed, Karsten Friis and Ulf Sverdrup gives an onerview of the most pressing concerns the new plan should consider.
Mainstream Russian Nationalism and the “State- Civilization” Identity: Perspectives “from below”
Based on more than 100 interviews in European Russia, this article sheds light on the bottom-up dynamics of Russian nationalism. After offering a characterization of the post-2012 “state-civilization” discourse from above, I examine how ordinary people imagine Russia as a “state-civilization.” Interview narratives of inclusion into the nation are found to overlap with state discourse on three main lines: (1) ethno-nationalism is rejected, and Russia is imagined to be a unique, harmonious multi-ethnic space in which the Russians (russkie) lead without repressing the others; (2) Russia’s multinationalism is remembered in myths of peaceful interactions between Russians (russkie) and indigenous ethnic groups (korennyye narodi) across the imperial and Soviet past; (3) Russian culture and language are perceived as the glue that holds together a unified category of nationhood. Interview narratives on exclusion deviate from state discourse in two key areas: attitudes to the North Caucasus reveal the geopolitical-security, post-imperial aspect of the “state-civilization” identity, while stances toward non-Slavic migrants in city spaces reveal a degree of “cultural nationalism” that, while sharing characteristics with those of Western Europe, is also based on Soviet-framed notions of normality. Overall, the article contributes to debates on how Soviet legacies and Russia’s post-imperial consciousness play out in the context of the “pro-Putin consensus.”
Preferential tariffs and development of Norwegian rose import from Africa
Purpose Imports of cut roses increased after Norway implemented a preferential tariff scheme for the Least Developed Countries in 2002. When the scheme was extended to more countries in 2008 – among them Kenya – imports exploded. This article studies the subsequent changes in supply channels, import costs and the way Norwegian firms imported. Design/methodology/approach Qualitative data, obtained through interviews among five rose importers, are combined with quantitative data for all importing firms and transactions in Norway for years 2003–2014. These data are analysed in light of recent economic theories on international trade. Findings When Kenya was included in the scheme, imports from Europe and domestic production in Norway decreased substantially. Imports from some African countries with low income levels also declined. Importing under GSP involves high fixed import costs due to stringent procedures. Each firm’s imports increased gradually, and over time learning may have facilitated importing. Direct trade with African producers and control over the logistics chain seem to have become more important. Research limitations/implications The analysis build mainly on data for Norwegian importers, not for African exporters. Managerial or Policy implications Simplifying the GSP procedures could increase Norwegian imports from developing countries and induce establishment of new trade relationships, perhaps also for other products than roses. Originality/value Using a mixture of original qualitative data as well as unique, detailed and comprehensive quantitative data, the article provides new insights into how a developed country’s preferential tariff reductions towards developing countries affect trade and buyer-supplier relationships.
Brothers and barbarians: Discursive constructions of ‘refugees’ in Russian media
This article maps the unexplored terrain of representations of refugees in Russian media, using discourse theory and the concepts of subject positions and symbolic boundaries to analyse these representations. The research questions are: Who are the refugees? What discourses do they feature in? What kinds of symbolic boundaries do these representations maintain? This study analyses the three Russian newspapers Izvestija, Novaya gazeta and Rossiiskaya gazeta, focusing on how, between 1 January 2014 and 31 December 2015, these newspapers came to employ the term ‘refugee’ for persons from Ukraine and for those from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Analysis of the subject position of ‘refugee’ in discourses about security, humanitarianism, integration and nationalism reveals contrasting images of refugees from Ukraine and MENA refugees. The latter are represented as ‘threatening’ and ‘alien’: symbolic boundaries are maintained between Russians and these refugees as well as between ‘superior’ Russia and ‘inferior’ Europe. In contrast, refugees from Ukraine are often presented as similar to Russians. Nationalist discourse merges with security, humanitarian and integration discourses, creating contrasting symbolic boundaries between these two groups of refugees and Russians. Refugees are classed as ‘preferred’ or ‘non-preferred’ migrants on the basis not of their situation, but their ethnicity.
Hvilken liberal orden?
The West has to critically examine its own contributions to the crisis of the 'liberal order'.
Hvordan påvirker pandemien den liberale orden?
Covid-19 puts more pressure on the liberal order.
The Impact of Covid-19 on the Women, Peace and Security Agenda.
• Women appear to be disproportionately affected by Covid-19 • Pushback on global commitment to gender equality • Gender equality and human development are correlated: focussing on gender equality will have a catalytic effect on the SDGs • The increasing strain on peace operations is likely to have a negative effect on the WPS agenda.
COVID-19 will change the way the UN conducts peacekeeping operations in the future
The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly disrupted UN peacekeeping operations. In the short-term, activities have been reduced to the most critical, rotations have been frozen, and most staff are working remotely. Most of the missions have adapted remarkably well, but even more extreme changes are likely in the medium term, as the global economic recession that will follow in the wake of the virus may force UN peace operations to drastically contract in size and scope.
Handelen med medisinske varer og Covid-19
The Covid-19 pandemy has exposed vulnerability for pharmaceuticals and medical goods. Does globalisation create more or less vulnerability? - The majority of countries import all their drugs and only eighteen countries are net exporters. - Exports are dominated by Western Europa, with China and India some way down the list. - Globalisation has spread the risk for medical goods by an increased number of suppliers and less export concentration. A main driver is increased export from small European countries. - At a more detailed level of goods, the picture is more mixed, with growing concentration in some cases. - Export restrictions contribute to market collapse and higher prices, that particularly hit poor countries that import all their needs. - For Norway, European integration is important for medical contingency planning.