Publications
Slow Stagnation, Sudden Revolution? Post-Covid-19 Prospects for Political Change in Russia and Belarus
The Covid-19 pandemic and the impending economic crisis may exacerbate instability in Belarus and Russia. To reduce the risks of regional instability and help to prepare for a possible transition of power, the international community should continue its support for democratic initiatives in the region. To better understand and predict future political development, close and nuanced knowledge of Russian and Belarusian societies is necessary. Monitoring and academic research should therefore be encouraged. In the case of a transition, the international community should demand free and fair elections. It should also issue strong and clear statements against foreign interference and consistently react to any violations of sovereignty.
Spaces and Institutional Logics in Post-Conflict Settings of Mitrovica
Spaces structure interactions between communities in post-conflict settings. They are governed by particular institutional logics, which can foster boundary building and boundary transgression. This article proposes an extended version of the concept of ‘everyday peace’ including a focus not only on micro-level individual actorness in social interactions but also on an important meso- level dimension in the analysis of social behaviour and variation in institutional logics governing spaces where social interactions take place. We apply these concepts to the study of perceptions and practices around bridges in Mitrovica in Kosovo.
Suitcase – shelling – Russia’: narratives about refugees from Ukraine in Russian media.
The armed conflict in South-East Ukraine has brought a massive increase in refugees in the Russian Federation. This article examines the meaning-making process surrounding the sudden presence of these refugees, through analysis of narratives in three major national newspapers – Izvestiya, Novaya gazeta and Rossiiskaya gazeta –1 June – 30 September 2014. Three thematic groups of narratives predominated: about war, about refugee reception and aid, and about Russia in international relations. These give meaning to the subject-position “refugees from Ukraine” primarily as war victims and aid recipients.
Det haster med ny etterretningslov
Norway needs a new law on foreign intelligence
Female Peacekeepers and Operational Effectiveness in UN Peace Operations.
More women are needed in UN peace operations, both on the grounds of equality and performance. March 2020 survey data and empirical evidence from the Effectiveness of Peace Operations Network (EPON) highlight the importance of greater gender parity in UN peace operations for missions to successfully achieve their mandated tasks, stressing also the impact of context-specific obstacles and how the absence of enabling and supportive systems means that neither male nor female peacekeepers can perform at their best. Survey findings also point to the risk that the women, peace and security (WPS) agenda – including gender equality in peacekeeping operations – may be treated as a second-tier concern if set against other pressing issues. In the midst of the current COVID-19 pandemic and an evolving global recession– this risk is intensified. A continued political and financial commitment to increasing numbers is a prerequisite for achieving greater gender parity and equality. However, in terms of discourse, we need to move beyond having to prove the added value of female participation, which places an extra burden on those concerned.
Unity in Goals, Diversity in Means - and the discourse on female peacekeepers in UN peace operations.
Gender parity at all levels in the UN, as a means towards gender equality, is a two-decades old commitment, reflecting core values as old as the UN itself. Despite this, progress on increasing the number of female peacekeepers has been slow and uneven, particularly in uniformed roles – but also in peace processes. This is due to a number of reasons, but in particular a lack of political will, financing and accountability, and resistance to gender equality. We argue that a paradigm shift is needed, both on performance diversity grounds but also on normative equality grounds. To implement already agreed upon benchmarks and resolutions, the UN and its member states need to focus more on the operational value of diversity in fulfilling the tasks at hand, both for national security forces and in peace operations. Gender should be considered a central component in this required diversity. In the current situation where we witness a pushback on support to women’s rights; ensuring diversity should not only be considered a key priority, but also a national and international security imperative.
The spiralling effects of the Sino-American trade war
Almost two years ago, China and the United States instigated a trade conflict which has had serious international effects, a situation since exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic. What has truly made a solution to this conflict elusive, however, is that its origins lie well beyond questions of trade deficits and fair competition, and are instead based on the looming question of a power transition between to the two states. The effects of this divergence are beginning to be observed in several economic realms, including the financial and the technological. Many other actors in the global economy have begun to experience the side effects of this completion, and may now have to face difficult choices about how to balance between these two emerging poles in the current fragile global economy.
Biowar next? Security implications of the coronavirus
In this Strategic Update, Karsten Friis investigates the pandemic's potential consequences for the world, its armed forces, the integration of Europe, US-China relations, as well as the concept and practice of 'war' more broadly. Although much remains uncertain, the disruptions which are beginning to emerge demand a reckoning with a changed world -- and world order.
Assessing the Effectiveness of the United Nations-African Union Hybrid Operation in Darfur (UNAMID)
The United Nations-African Union Hybrid Operation in Darfur (UNAMID) began its deploy- ment to Sudan in 2007 in the midst of widespread violence. UNAMID was the largest peace- keeping operation in the world at the time. Its drawdown and transition began a decade later, and today less than one-quarter of that force remains, concentrated in a small area in central Darfur. The intervening years witnessed a moribund peace process and a scorched-earth govern- ment military campaign against Darfuri rebels that killed thousands of civilians. A popu- lar uprising against the ruling system erupted in December 2018, and in April 2019, Omar al-Bashir, who had ruled Sudan since 1989, was deposed. The new transitional government and military-civilian Sovereign Council are now seeking to rescue a struggling economy and make peace with the people on Sudan’s peripheries. While the recently endorsed Juba Agreement brings new hopes for peace in Darfur, the way forward remains far from certain. With nearly two million IDPs, a deep humanitarian crisis, and rising levels of violence, Darfur in 2020 is far from being a stable place as UNAMID—the African Union and United Nations’ most important tool for security and stability—appears set to depart. This report assesses UNAMID’s impact over a ten-year period (2007-2017) and across its three strategic priorities: mediating between the government and non-signatory armed movements; protecting civilians, monitoring human rights, and facilitating humanitarian assistance; and supporting the mediation of community conflict. The report also makes observations and draws lessons from UNAMID’s transition (2017- 2020), a process still underway and for which it is too early to assess the definitive impact. Reflecting upon UNAMID’s unique features, the report includes lessons from the hybrid nature of the operation, as well as from the challenges posed by fragile host-nation cooper- ation. It draws on existing analyses and data as well as more than 140 interviews and focus group consultations with 700 community members in Darfur.
COVID-19 in Latin America: Challenges, responses, and consequences
While containment efforts were quickly implemented in many countries, COVID-19 may still prove to have a long-lasting effect in Latin America, a region already marked by economic disarray and political instability. Economic projections suggest that Latin American economies will be among the most affected by the current halt in global trade and consumption. As many countries have recently faced political turmoil, massive containment efforts raise a number of questions on legitimacy and citizen-state relations. In some countries, democratic processes essential for the upholding of democratic legitimacy have been halted. In Brazil, the central government’s handling of the crisis has been an important factor contributing to a severe political crisis. A geopolitical vacuum may provide China with an opportunity to increase its importance for the region.