The Most Important U.S. Election in a Generation

"The U.S. election in 2024 is undoubtedly the most important for European security in a generation," says Research Professor Karsten Friis at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI). 

He is one of the authors behind the NUPI report US and UK Elections: Implications for NATO and Northern European Security, published this week. 

Co-authors include Ed Arnold (Senior Research Fellow, RUSI) and Max Bergmann (Director of the Europe, Asia, and Eurasia Program at CSIS).

"The U.S.' focus on the Asia-Pacific is growing, and military and political resources are limited. Europe will likely have to prepare to shoulder an even greater share of the security burden in the coming years," Friis summarizes.

Key points in the report:

• The U.S. presidential election will have significant consequences for the future of NATO and European security, with the potential for major differences depending on the outcome.
• Harris will likely offer more continuity with the current Biden administration's policy towards NATO and Ukraine. However, European allies should be prepared for the possibility that the U.S. may shift more resources and attention to the Asia-Pacific region, given China's ambitions and influence.
• A second Trump term would bring greater uncertainty and potentially a dramatic shift in U.S. NATO policy. Trump's long-standing skepticism toward the alliance, along with influence from advisors who share this view, could lead to a significant weakening of the U.S.' role in European security.
• Harris has assured Europe of her and the U.S.' commitment to European security. Therefore, European states will have few incentives to take the necessary steps to adapt to an increasingly uncertain security situation.
• With Trump in the White House, Europeans might experience the security alliance with the U.S. thrown into chaos, and thus be forced to consider difficult and uncomfortable steps to strengthen their own security.
• The UK's new Labour government, under Prime Minister Keir Starmer, has expressed an approach that puts "NATO first" and seeks to "reset" relations with Europe. They are conducting a strategic defense review to assess future security needs in light of the changing geopolitical landscape. In this, the outcome of the U.S. election is a crucial factor.
• Norway and other Nordic countries must prepare for reduced U.S. military presence in Europe regardless of who wins the election. This makes it necessary for Europe to take on more responsibility for defense and for closer cooperation among allies, including increased defense budgets and the integration of military forces.