Researchers warn against risky returns and relocations in Nigeria

Over two million people have been forced to flee their homes in northeastern Nigeria due to over 15 years of jihadist insurgencies. Many of these now live as internally displaced persons (IDPs).

Camps Are Closing

In Borno State, nearly one million people reside in 228 refugee camps, and the process of closing these camps has already begun.

‘The best camps have tents provided by humanitarian organizations. In other camps, residents have built houses or huts themselves. These shelters are often the size of a small tent and accommodate six to seven people,’ explains Andreas Lind Kroknes, an advisor at NUPI.

In the NUPI report “IDP Situation in Borno State, Nigeria – Returning to Uncertainty?” Kroknes, along with Morten Bøås (Research Professor, NUPI) and Mala Mustapha (CDD), conducted a foresight study to predict the potential outcomes of camp closures and offer recommendations for success.

‘The government’s rationale is that the camps must eventually close. Authorities now believe that security conditions in Borno have improved enough for IDPs to return to their original homes,’ says Kroknes.

An Ambitious Plan

Several jihadist insurgent groups, including IS and Jama’tu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’awati wal-Jihad (also known as Boko Haram), remain active in the region.

The government claims it is close to defeating Boko Haram, which has carried out numerous violent attacks over the years. However, Kroknes believes this to be an exaggeration.

‘Both the authorities and various development actors agree that the camps should close soon because they are not sustainable. People don’t have a fulfilling life there. The main argument for closing the camps is that IDPs become dependent on aid and, therefore, need a push to become self-reliant.’

Borno State has a plan to facilitate this, called the Borno State Strategy for Durable Solutions.

‘The authorities in Borno plan to provide funding and resources so that people can return home or resettle elsewhere. But even with financial support from the state, the federal government, and private actors, this will be a significant challenge,’ Kroknes says.

The Young Lack Education

A major challenge is that many camp residents have nothing to return to.

‘Many have likely spent their entire lives in the camps. Their social lives and relationships have been shaped there. Educational opportunities are scarce or non-existent. When available, they mainly provide children with a mental break from camp life. Many parents do not see the value in sending their children to school if they can instead help with daily life in the camp.’

However, the lack of theoretical knowledge is not the only challenge.

‘There is an assumption that people naturally possess the skills needed to run a farm. But that’s not the case. Farming requires extensive knowledge and experience, ideally acquired from a young age. These individuals are expected to return to farms and land they do not have the skills to cultivate,’ Kroknes explains.

Combined with inadequate health and education services in rural Borno, this situation creates unsafe conditions for many returning to their homes. Some people refuse to return to their place of origin due to ongoing security concerns or past trauma.

‘Many have survived attacks as the only survivors. For these individuals, what the authorities call “home” is a place filled with trauma.’

Need for Better Data and Planning

‘This is not the first time the state has attempted what could be described as ‘forced voluntary relocations,’ Kroknes notes.

Previous efforts have led to repeated displacement.

‘People may return to their original homes, find that security is still insufficient, and move again. The risk of multiple displacements is high,’ says Kroknes.

According to the authors of the report, several measures are needed to increase the likelihood of successful camp closures.

‘Large-scale, systematic data is lacking. There have been no comprehensive labor market analyses, and little is known about the skills and backgrounds of camp residents. A “traffic light system” should be developed to classify areas as “go to”, “pending go to” and “not go to”. Proper planning is essential to avoid worsening or prolonging the current situation.’

Humanitarian organizations and authorities often disagree on the best course of action. While humanitarian groups advocate for more extensive preparations before closing camps, development actors take a more moderate stance.

‘Competing claims among different actors about who is right hinder progress. They need to find common ground,’ says Kroknes.

Returning to Uncertainty

The researchers interviewed IDPs, government officials, and representatives from humanitarian organizations, such as the Red Cross, as well as development agencies such as the UN Development Programme.

‘I believe many IDPs are open to leaving the camps, but they also have a realistic understanding of what is possible. No one wants to live in a camp. Unfortunately, when you speak to some representatives of authorities and even development actors, you get the impression that they think IDPs are lazy and enjoy a comfortable existence—which is not true. IDPs simply want to survive, and if the choice is between a high risk of death or staying in the camp, they will stay,’ says Kroknes.

IDPs have also expressed the need for start-up capital and tools to establish businesses.

‘Entrepreneurship is a crucial part of Nigerian society, and many IDPs end up in urban areas. To make a living—whether through carpentry or furniture-making—people need start-up capital. Of course, there are significant individual differences among camp residents. Some suffer from severe mental health issues that would have been addressed long ago if they had access to better healthcare facilities.’

Could leaving the camps intact be a viable option?

‘Not permanently. Life in the camps is not sustainable. It’s a life of waiting—a place where people wait for their lives to restart. However, this can’t end until the situation is adequately resolved. People need to feel confident that they are starting something viable, whether by returning to their farms or starting anew elsewhere,’ concludes Kroknes.