German-Norwegian Maritime Security Cooperation is strengthened

“There has been close defence cooperation between the two countries for a long time, but due to Germany’s significant revamping of its security policy since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it has become possible to invest even more in this cooperation, says Senior Researcher Øyvind Svendsen (NUPI), who has co-authored the report The Maritime Zeitenwende: Germany in the Northern Waters together with NUPI colleagues Tobias Etzold and Eskil Jakobsen. 

Increased Interest in Norwegian Waters 

The most important maritime domain for Germany is the Baltic Sea, which borders the German coastline. 

“At the same time, we are seeing increased interest in Norway's traditional naval operating theatre. The new submarines that Norway and Germany are acquiring together, scheduled to be operational from 2029, will have joint maintenance facilities at Haakonsvern in Bergen, so the Germans will obviously also sail northwards. Additionally, the Germans have acquired maritime surveillance aircraft that can contribute to situational awareness far beyond the Baltic Sea,” Svendsen explains. 

Germany's approach to security and defence accelerated after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Just days after the invasion, Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz used the term Zeitenwende, which refers to a historical turning point, in a speech to the German parliament. 

“In the speech, he promised a major revamp of German security and defence policies, precisely because the historical turning point Russia’s invasion constituted made it necessary for Germany to build up its military power and ability to deter Russia,” says Svendsen. 

More Cooperation on the Horizon 

Germany's primary maritime focus lies in the Baltic Sea, but according to Svendsen, the Germans are increasingly interested in contributing further north along the Norwegian coast. 

“Therefore, the Baltic Sea and the North Atlantic – what we call the Northern waters – is set to become a more integrated operational theatre. A crucial aspect of cooperation in this theatre is protection of critical infrastructure, which is increasingly under threat from hybrid activities,” the NUPI researcher explains. 

This creates opportunities for Norway, which seeks to cooperate more with a Germany that is attempting to assume a more prominent leadership role in European security. 

...but Germany is lagging behind 

However, how does the landscape look with regards to the resources and capabilities of the German armed forces? 

“Germany has ambitions to be a main provider of security in Europe, but after years of deprioritizing security and defence after the end of The cold war, its ability to lead in practice is limited. Germany’s history also makes the country cautious about militarisation, and resistance to the development and use of military force remains relatively strong in Germany. However, Germany is a major industrial player in European security, as demonstrated by the German-Norwegian submarine program and the German frigate programme,” says Svendsen. 

Germany is a primarily land-based military power, but according to the researcher, it also has a relatively capable navy with ambitions for further development – including high-tech equipment such as unmanned and partially AI-driven vessels and drones. 

German Dependency of Norwegian Gas 

For Norway, Germany can contribute with patrols, deterrence, joint training, and operations in Norwegian maritime areas, according to Svendsen. This occurs alongside other allies like the US and the UK. Particularly, Germany and Norway can cooperate on protecting critical infrastructure, a key priority in their joint efforts. 

“We have seen sabotage of critical infrastructure in recent years, which is extremely serious for Germany and its allies. For many reasons, Germany is now increasingly dependent on Norwegian gas, and if anything were to happen to the gas supply between the two countries, it would have severe consequences for the country’s energy supply,” the NUPI researcher explains. 

When asked whether Germany’s efforts in maritime security and closer cooperation between the two countries could also involve risks, he replies: 

“There is, in principle, great willingness on both sides, and there is significant potential on the industry side, in training, and in joint operations. However, the Germans face a major task if they are to become a European leader in security, including in maritime security. Therefore, the Norwegian approach to cooperation with Germany is not an ‘all eggs in one basket’ approach. Norway also works closely with other allies, especially the US and the UK, to contribute to security and deterrence in Norwegian maritime areas.” 

Domestic Challenges 

Following the collapse of Olaf Scholz’ government in Germany this autumn, the country is set for a snap election in February 2025. But does it really matter who wins for Germany’s implementation of new security and defence policies in the Zeitenwende?  

“Most likely not” says Svendsen. He elaborates: 

“Friedrich Merz, leader of the CDU, is the favorite to become Federal Chansellor, and he will likely follow a similar line to his predecessor. The challenge primarily lies in the ability to finance the necessary policies. This is because Germany’s constitution imposes strict limits on the country’s budget deficits and government debt, and with a stagnating economy, this also constrains how much money the country can spend on anything – from social policiy to security and defence.”