Climate, Peace and Security in Libya

In a new fact sheet from the joint NUPI and SIPRI Climate-related Peace and Security Risks Project (CPSR), the team explore the nexus between climate change, peace and security in Libya.

Published: August 29, 2024 Ingvild Brox Brodtkorb

People

Thor Olav Iversen

Senior Researcher

Katongo Seyuba

Research assistant, SIPRI

Nadine Andersen

Research Assistant, SIPRI

Ingvild Brox Brodtkorb

Junior Research Fellow

Cedric H. de Coning

Research Professor

Florian Krampe

Senior Researcher, SIPRI

Libya is exposed a number of climate hazards. In September 2023, Storm Daniel caused severe rainfall and floods, triggering the collapse of two ageing dams in eastern Libya. This left a trail of destruction in the city of Derna and its surrounding areas.

Libya is also one of the driest and most water-stressed countries in the world; it is prone to drought and less than two per cent of the country receives enough rain to sustain agriculture. Climate stressors are in turn aggravated by political turmoil, a divided government, protracted conflict and the presence of a plethora of armed groups. These factors, which have contributed to mismanagement, corruption and a lack of good governance, affect efforts to address climate-related risks, including those that may influence peace and security dynamics.

Read the fact sheet here or download it as a PDF here.

· Livelihoods in Libya have been impacted by the compounded effects of conflict, political crisis, economic shocks and climate change. Climate change and water scarcity pose serious risks to livelihoods and the productive sectors and may increase the risk of intercommunal tensions.

· Conflict and climate-related disasters impact migration to and forced displacement within Libya. Internally displaced persons (IDPs), migrants and refugees are highly vulnerable to climate change and face addition challenges, including human rights violations and lack of access to services and protection. The divided government response to the Derna flooding partially excluded refugees and migrants, who faced discrimination in access to government support.

· The impacts of climate change have provided opportunities for armed actors and parallel government institutions to solidify political power, by boosting recruitment due to declining livelihoods or by controlling disaster response efforts in parts of Libya.

· The devastation in Derna exposed not only vulnerability to climate change but also the consequences of poor governance and mismanagement by to rival administrations. This fragmentation of state authority is a major inhibitor to addressing the impacts of climate change.

Political reconciliation and unification would advance the development and implementation of climate adaptation plans and disaster response strategies across Libya. Cooperation in tackling climate change may provide divided government institutions with opportunities for integration and collaboration, supported by international actors, such as the United Nations Security Council and the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL).