Event

The South Caucasus after 2022: Domestic developments and geopolitical challenges

Armenia now appears to be turning away from Russia and towards the EU and the USA, while Georgia seems to be heading in the opposite direction and and drawing closer to countries such as China, Turkey and Iran. How are shifts in the South Caucasus redefining the region's future?

13 September 2024

09:00 Europe/Oslo

Language: English

NUPI

Seminar

Themes

In recent years, several dramatic events and shifts have taken place in the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan has, after 30 years, taken back Nagorno-Karabakh by force. Russia, which has traditionally been Armenia's security guarantor in the conflict, has withdrawn its forces from the area. In response, Armenia now appears to be turning away from Russia and towards the EU and the USA, while Georgia seems to be heading in the opposite direction and drawing closer to countries such as China, Turkey and Iran.

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Tom de Waal (Carnegie) has been following developments in Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia for a long time. He will present an overview of more recent developments in the three countries and how we can understand and assess seemingly dramatic shifts in outlooks and relations with a view to more long-term trends. The war on Ukraine has changed Russia’s capacity and role in the region. The South Caucasus states demonstrate their independence and navigate new opportunities and challenges in different ways in this rapidly changing situation.

The seminar will be chaired by Research professor Julie Wilhelmsen.

The event takes place from 09:00 to 10:30, with breakfast served from 08:30. The seminar will be streamed to NUPI's YouTube channel:

Tom de Waal is a senior fellow with Carnegie Europe, specializing in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus region.

He is the author of numerous publications, most recently The End of the Near Abroad (Carnegie Europe/IWM, 2024). The second edition of his book The Caucasus: An Introduction (Oxford University Press) was published in 2018. He is also the author of Great Catastrophe: Armenians and Turks in the Shadow of Genocide (Oxford University Press, 2015) and of the authoritative book on the Nagorny Karabakh conflict, Black Garden: Armenia and Azerbaijan Through Peace and War (NYU Press, second edition 2013).

From 2010 to 2015, de Waal worked for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, DC. Before that he worked extensively as a journalist in both print and for BBC radio. From 1993 to 1997, he worked in Moscow for the Moscow Times, the Times of London, and the Economist, specializing in Russian politics and the situation in Chechnya. He co-authored (with Carlotta Gall) the book Chechnya: Calamity in the Caucasus (NYU Press, 1997), for which the authors were awarded the James Cameron Prize for Distinguished Reporting.