Event

The Trump administration has challenged several core pillars of the traditionally strong relations between Europe and the United States. In addition to divergent views and policies on trade, tariffs and climate change, pressure on European allies to spend 2% of GDP on defence has increased dramatically since Trump took office. The future US defence commitment and presence in Europe could become contingent on European defence spending.

These developments may very well drive new transatlantic wedges that severely undermine solidarity and US security commitments. In the worst case, Europe may have to rely on a NATO with limited US involvement. It is unlikely that the USA will ever formally leave the Alliance, but it could choose to commit far less resources than today. Despite recent initiatives aimed at strengthening the EU’s security and defence measures, the Union is unlikely ever to assume the collective defence role of NATO. Defence of Europe may have to rely more on ‘the European NATO’ than before – or, alternatively, on stronger bilateral ties with the USA and specific individual European countries. As since such scenarios can no longer be dismissed, the time has come to begin asking how an alternative security and defence framework might look.

What can a European NATO plus Canada do alone to defend Europe? What measures might most effectively strengthen today’s weak and fragmented defence structures in Europe? May we expect inter-ally competition to strengthen their bilateral ties to the USA, should it disengage from NATO? Should Norway focus on hedging against the risks entailed in various future scenarios, or reinforce the current defence strategy instead?

At this 20^th anniversary of the Military Power seminar, NUPI invites you to ponder an uncomfortable future scenario where solutions like greater Nordic defence cooperation, a more bilateral world, or the potential new role of key countries like Germany will be discussed. There will be contributions from international and national experts, Norwegian decision makers, and ample time for discussion and reflections. 

The seminar will be live streamed on NUPI's YouTube channel:

VENUE: Wergeland, The House of Literature, Oslo.

PROGRAMME:

08.30-09.00	Coffee and registration
09.00-10.15	Welcome speech by NUPI director Ulf Sverdrup
	Opening speech by the Norwegian Minister of Defence, Frank Bakke-Jensen
	Keynote speech: Normal is Over: “Make America Great Again” and the consequences for NATO and Europe, Constanze Stelzenmüller (Brookings Institution)
10.15-10.30	Coffee break
10.30-11.30	Part 2: A European NATO?
	Chair: Karsten Friis (Senior Adviser, NUPI)
	Regionalization or fragmentation of NATO?  Jens Ringsmose (Director of Institute for Military Operations, the Royal Danish Defence College)
	Will Germany become the future defence pillar of Europe?  Ulrike Franke (Policy Fellow, European Council of Foreign Relations – ECFR)
	UK’s security commitments to Europe after Brexit. Andrew Dorman (Professor, Department of Defence Studies, King’s College London)
	France and the defence of Europe.  Pernille Rieker (Research Professor, NUPI)
	What is the potential of Nordic defence cooperation?  Karlis Neretnieks (The Royal Swedish Academy of War Sciences)
11.30-11.45	Coffee break
11.45-12.45	Part 3: Panel discussion: Can Europe defend Europe?
	Chair: Karsten Friis
	Participants: Jens Ringsmose, Ulrike Franke, Andrew Dorman, Pernille Rieker, Karlis Neretnieks
12.45-13.30	Lunch, Kjelleren, The House of Literature
13.30-15.00	Part 4: Konsekvenser for Norge. Trenger vi en plan B? (only in Norwegian)
	Chair: Kate Hansen Bundt (Secretary General, The Norwegian Atlantic Committee and Chairman at NUPI)
	Opening: Lieutenant general Rune Jacobsen (Head of Forsvarets Operative Hovedkvarter (FOH))
	Panelists:
	Tone Skogen, State Secretary MoD (Conservative Party)
	Hårek Elvenes, Member of the Storting (Conservative Party)
	Espen Barth Eide, Member of the Storting, (Labour Party)
	Kari Elisabeth Kaski, Member of the Storting (Socialist Left Party)