Researcher
Lucas de Oliveira Paes
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Summary
Lucas De Oliveira Paes is a Senior Research Fellow at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI) in the Global Order and Diplomacy research group. Lucas holds a PhD in Politics and International Studies from the University of Cambridge (UK), and master's and bachelor's degrees from the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS). His research interests encompass relational perspectives on the dynamics of order, hierarchy, sovereignty, regionalism, and international relations theory more broadly. In particular, his research has explored hierarchical dynamics and asymmetries in the exercise of state sovereignty across multiple issue areas in international relations, with a focus on environmental governance.
Between 2020 and 2024, Lucas conducted postdoctoral research on Amazonian regionalism as part of the Lorax Project on transboundary ecosystem governance funded by the European Research Council. From 2024 to 2028, he will lead a Research Council of Norway (RCN) Young Research Talents called “RESOLVING: Rebundling sovereignty over local nature in global governance”, which explores comparatively how the exercise of sovereignty over ecosystems such as the Amazon and the Gulf of Guinea has been transformed through multi-level environmental governance.
Lucas's work has been recently featured in journals such as Environmental Politics, Marine Policy, Cooperation and Conflict, Journal of Peace Research, Review of International Studies, and International Affairs.
Education
2020 PhD, Politics and International Studies, University of Cambridge
2016 Master's degree in International Strategic Studies, Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil
2014 Bachelor's degree in International Relations, Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil
Work Experience
2020- Senior Research Fellow, NUPI
2018-2020 Editor-in-Chief, Cambridge Review of International Affairs
2017-2018 Associate Editor, Cambridge Review of International Affairs
2016-2017 Research Assistant, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver, United States
2014-2016 Research Associate, Center for International Studies on Government, Brazil
Aktivitet
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Clear all filtersTechno-optimism versus Techno-reality: An analysis of internationally funded technological solutions against illegal unreported and unregulated (IU...
Maritime governance has been immersed in growing techno-optimism. Technological developments have largely increased the capacity of states to render legible activities at sea and thus more effectively govern them. One area in which such techno-optimism has gained force but is yet to prove itself is the fight against Illegal, Unreported, and Unregulated (IUU) fishing. While technology-aided international cooperation has been crucial in curbing piracy, it has been slower to tame IUU fishing. In this article, we study international projects introducing technology-based solutions against IUU fishing in West Africa. Triangulating project documentation, donor evaluations, interviews, and other secondary sources, we assess how the techno-optimism driving those initiatives meets the techno-reality of their contexts of implementation. We find that, while grounds for optimism are far from unwarranted, realizing the potential of technological solutions against IUU fishing requires securing parallel cooperation that allows states to transform technology-based awareness into action.
Introducing the Latin American Transnational Surveillance (LATS) dataset
Transnational surveillance is a powerful tool in the arsenal of autocrats the world over. Despite its pervasive use in extraterritorial coercion, the systematic study of surveillance of regime opponents beyond national borders remains underdeveloped in political science, primarily due to limited data availability. To help fill this gap, we constructed the Latin American Transnational Surveillance dataset, a micro-level dataset based on declassified foreign surveillance reports produced between 1966 and 1986 by autocratic Brazil. Latin American Transnational Surveillance records the identity, locations, social ties and political activism of 17,000 individual targets of transnational surveillance, the vast majority of whom were tracked in neighbouring countries across Latin America. Drawing on these abundant data, we empirically explore existing theoretical insights about the motivations, methods and consequences of transnational surveillance, a task that would be difficult to do using other sources. We also leverage social network analysis to showcase potential applications of Latin American Transnational Surveillance in the testing of collective-action theories of transnational political violence.
Prestige and punishment: Status symbols and the danger of white elephants
This article identifies and unpacks the intrinsic potential for backlash in the pursuit of status symbols. While status loss has been associated with domestic pushback and reduced legitimacy for ruling governments, the literature on status is yet to examine how status-seeking can backfire even when a state can successfully claim to have acquired a status symbol. We contend that status backlashes are an inherent risk of status-seeking due to the multivocality of costly status symbols. Our heuristic framework for studying status backlashes proposes examining modes of critique that construe status symbols as irrational or unjustified costly endeavours, undermining their legitimating capacity and potentially even transforming them into a marker of stigma. Empirically, we identify three modes of critique present in reactions to Brazil’s hosting of the World Cup in 2014 and the Olympics in 2016. There, despite recognizing the symbolic value of hosting these mega-events, Brazilian audiences also criticized the government for the opportunity costs, vested interests and subservience that it entailed. Undertaking two shadow case studies – on the backlash against the United Kingdom’s renewal of its Trident nuclear weapons system and Norway’s engagement in military interventions between 1999 and 2012 – we document how these modes of critique associated with status symbols can travel across contexts.
Theory Seminar: Mai’a K. Davis Cross on: International Cooperation Against All Odds: The Ultrasocial World
NUPI is proud to welcome you to this theory seminar with Mai´a K. Davis Cross on the ultrasocial world.
Annex to the report 'Norway’s strategic dependencies in global supply chain networks'
This annex is connected to the NUPI Report 'Norway’s strategic dependencies in global supply chain networks' found here: https://www.nupi.no/en/publications/cristin-pub/norway-s-strategic-dependencies-in-global-supply-chain-networks
Norway’s strategic dependencies in global supply chain networks
Economic interdependence and global supply chains are being investigated anew. For a long time, a belief in the ability of growing economic ties to foster cooperation, dampen conflict, and enhance prosperity was predominant in academic and political thinking alike. However, these assumptions have recently proven to be half-truths at best. Rather than dampen conflict, the asymmetries of global supply chains have turned them into coercive tools for the powerful to wield against the powerless. Through sanctions and export controls, states controlling vital chokepoints in global economic networks can cause harm in targeted states, and through controlling the nodes of information highways, intelligence agencies can gain access to sensitive information by leveraging the key position of their domestic companies. For states with small, open economies, this development poses a thorny problem: the toolbox for realigning global supply chains is limited, but reliance on supply chains beyond national control is extensive. The problem is not limited to being in a position of dependence, however. For smaller states, being in control over global assets, or being a key provider of a product or resource others depend on can be a double-edged sword. As economic coercion becomes more widely deployed, the impetus for protecting and securing assets increases, and the risk that they might drag smaller states into geopolitical contests grows. Addressing these concerns, it is vital to develop tools, frameworks, and methodologies for assessing supply chains from a national perspective, with a focus on how economic interdependence might introduce geopolitical risks. Against this background, this report builds on recent theoretical and methodological developments for analyzing global supply chains in light of their potential for geopolitical weaponization. More precisely, it will study Norway’s position in global value chains by combining recent methodological developments on the network analysis of supply chains and recent analysis of country-level aggregated analysis of supply dependencies. This allows for a study of supply chains as networks of economic relations, in which the position of different national economies contains both strategic capacities, or assets, by being central suppliers on which other countries depend, and vulnerabilities, by depending heavily on other countries. The report thus uses network analysis to identify Norway’s positions and their related strategic vulnerabilities and assets. Link to the Annex for this report: https://www.nupi.no/en/publications/cristin-pub/annex-to-the-report-norway-s-strategic-dependencies-in-global-supply-chain-networks
Technology and maritime security in Africa: Opportunities and challenges in Gulf of Guinea
Maritime security threats undermine safety and security at sea and, in turn, coastal states’ efforts to harness the resources in their maritime domain. This assertion is true for coastal states and Small Island Developing States (SIDS) on the African continent, where limited maritime enforcement capabilities have increased security threats at sea, such as illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing, piracy and armed robbery at sea, toxic waste dumping and other illicit activities. African navies and their foreign partners are taking advantage of the opportunities that technology provides to improve safety and security. Technology has led to the identification of criminals at sea, their capture and prosecution, making it crucial in enhancing maritime security. As such, the merits of its use for maritime security are undeniable. However, using technology comes with challenges that need to be considered. With this in mind, our research makes an original contribution by exploring the opportunities for using technology to advance maritime safety and security in Africa, successes and challenges with an emphasis on the Gulf of Guinea region. Drawing from questionnaire data from maritime law enforcement personnel, agencies supporting the implementation of the Yaoundé Code of Conduct (2013), and a review of relevant literature and policy documents, we contend that technology has significantly improved maritime domain awareness and the effective implementation of maritime safety and security in the Gulf of Guinea. However, addressing existing limitations and enhancing human capacity is imperative to sustain this progress.
Nature knows no political borders
Building Sustainable Democracy in Latin America and the Caribbean
How can the Escazú Agreement contribute to democracy building?
Stakeholder Networks in International Development Projects in the Amazon rainforest
The governance of environmental issues has become a central challenge in world politics. These issues are often complex, thus requiring flows of knowledge and resource from multiple actors across multiple levels. International development cooperation is a channel for these varied sets of actors to join their efforts in concrete projects and policies, allowing for global engagement with local envi- ronmental challenges. It thus can anchor policy networks capable of structuring polycentric modes governance. Yet, empirical research has shown that policy networks are sites of political disputes, (re)producing power rela- tions and affecting the capacity of different social groups to influence relevant outcomes. In this brief, we examine such dynamics in the network of stakeholders involved in development, execution or governance of internationally funded projects in the Amazon.