Research Project
Climate-related Peace and Security Risks
The primary objective of the project is to generate reliable, relevant, timely and actionable information on climate, peace and security risks for specific countries and regions on the UN Security Council agenda. Its main product is a series of fact sheets on countries on the agenda of the Security Council.
The project will stimulate global networking among researchers and policymakers through a series of dialogues, and it aims to establish a Nordic and Baltic Climate, Peace and Security Network.
The project is co-led by Dr. Cedric de Coning at NUPI (cdc@nupi.no) and Dr. Florian Krampe at SIPRI (Florian.Krampe@sipri.org).
Further reading on the network here.
Sign up for news and information from the CPSR project here!
Further reading:
- On the project at SIRPI's home page
- On climate and security at the Norwegian government's home page
- On climate and security on SIPRI's home page
- Fact sheets and appendices
Seminars:
- The Water-Energy-Food Nexus and its implications for Climate Change Security (webinar held on 27 October 2021):
- Preventing climate-related conflict: Challenge for cross-disciplinary research, policy and practice? (webinar held on 24 November 2021):
Project Manager
Participants
Articles
Climate, peace and security in the US and beyond
Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: Central African Republic
Climate, Peace and Security in the Central African Republic
Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: Colombia
Climate, Peace and Security in Colombia
Seminar on Resilience Governance of Anthropocene Climate-, Energy-, Food- and Security Crises
Fact sheet: Climate, Peace and Security in Sudan
Climate Change in the United Nations Security Council: An Analysis of Discourses and Organizational Trends
Preventing climate-related conflict: A challenge for cross-disciplinary research, policy and practice?
Climate change, peace and security in Afghanistan
Translating Mandates into Policy and Practice: Emerging lessons from operationalizing climate-related security risks in peace operations
IPI, NUPI and SIPRI co-host webinar on Climate-related Security Risks.
The link between climate, peace and security in Mali
NUPI and SIPRI, under the Climate-related Peace and Security Risks project have worked on understanding the interlinkages between climate, peace and security in Mali. Read more in a new fact sheet which contains recommendations on addressing climate change.
The impact of climate change on peace and security in Somalia
A new collaborative NUPI-SIPRI project examines how climate change affect peace and security in states and regions on the UN Security Council's agenda. On 4 February, the project launched its first fact sheet, looking into Somalia.
How does climate change affect peace and security in South Sudan?
How does climate change affect peace and security in South Sudan?
Climate, Peace and Security in the Sahel region
NUPI and SIPRI, under the Climate-related Peace and Security Risks project have worked on understanding the interlinkages between climate, peace and security in the Sahel-region.
Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet Sahel
The Sahel region is highly exposed to climate change, but national and local factors mean that climate change will have differentiated impacts across the region. The region will gradually become hotter, with some areas experiencing increased, but erratic, rainfall.
New publications
Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: Democratic Republic of the Congo
The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is faced with a confluence of climate change, environmental degradation, resource exploitation and conflict dynamics that is exacerbating insecurity in the country. The dual impact of climate change and the global green energy transition risks deepening divisions over resource management and fostering intercommunal conflict over resources such as land and water. Climate related security risks threaten to undermine human security through increased livelihood and food insecurity and changing patterns of transhumance.
Climate, Peace and Security Research Paper: Insights on Climate, Peace and Security
Climate change is transforming and redefining the global security and development landscape. United Nations member states are increasingly acknowledging that the impacts of climate change have implications for international peace and security. The growing recognition of this link has been reflected by the UN Security Council adopting over 70 related resolutions and presidential statements since 2017. Since 2021 the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI) and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) have analysed the links between climate, peace and security in countries and regions on the agenda of the UN Security Council. With support from Norway during its elected membership of the UN Security Council in 2021–22, NUPI and SIPRI jointly published 11 Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheets covering Afghanistan, the Central African Republic (CAR), Colombia, Ethiopia, Iraq, Mali, the Sahel region, Somalia, South Sudan and Sudan. These fact sheets build on an analysis of four pathways from climate change to conflict that were identified in the context of East Africa; and supplement research on South and South East Asia, West Africa, and the Middle East and North Africa. The relationships between climate change and conflict have been studied in numerous other empirical studies and literature reviews with complementary findings. This paper outlines how climate change can affect peace and security (section I) and how climate change interacts with social, economic and political vulnerabilities in the countries covered by the Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheets (section II). The paper then synthesizes (section III) four key findings from the fact sheet series: (a) livelihood security is important, if not crucial, to the ways in which climate change influences conflict risk; (b) the impacts of climate change in one location can increase security risks in other locations; (c) the impacts of climate change interact with local vulnerabilities in ways that can create new security risks and exacerbate existing risks, such as conflict; and (d) conflict is not an inevitable consequence of climate change, but can be a response to its effects. This paper concludes with recommendations for how the UN Security Council shapes policies to address the complex challenges arising from climate change (section IV).
Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: Central African Republic
The Central African Republic (CAR) is highly exposed to the impacts of climate change due to socioecological vulnerabilities and ongoing insecurity. Drivers of vulnerability include the absence of state authority, natural resource mismanagement, and low household and community resilience. Although the security situation has improved in recent years, it remains volatile; factions of the Coalition of Patriots for Change (CPC), self-defence groups and bandits regularly clash with government forces, allies and mercenaries such as the Wagner Group (now Africa Corps) in rural areas. A changing climate and the deteriorating security situation in the Sahel and the Great Lakes region have driven transhumant pastoralists further into CAR earlier in the transhumance season, creating tensions. Additionally, the spillover effects of the war in Sudan have put added pressure on the humanitarian situation in CAR, particularly in the Vakaga and Haute-Kotto prefectures.
Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: Colombia
Colombia’s decades-long conflict culminated in the 2016 peace agreement between the Colombian government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), which included aims to achieve peace through rural reform, reintegration of former combatants, addressing illicit crop cultivation, and ensuring land restitution and voluntary return for displaced individuals. However, the combination of non-state armed groups (NSAGs), entrenched violence, social inequality and environmental challenges continues to hinder progress, particularly in rural areas. Since 2022, the current government has pursued a policy of ‘Total Peace’, alongside implementing the peace agreement. This includes peace talks with armed groups and addressing structural violence, racial discrimination, gender inequality, social inequalities and environmental concerns. This fact sheet focuses on how climate-related peace and security risks interact with specific provisions of the peace agreement, and provides an update on the situation since 2022.
Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: Libya
Libya is exposed to a number of climate hazards. In September 2023, Storm Daniel caused severe rainfall and floods, triggering the collapse of two ageing dams in eastern Libya. This left a trail of destruction in the city of Derna and its surrounding areas. Libya is also one of the driest and most water-stressed countries in the world; it is prone to drought and less than two per cent of the country receives enough rain to sustain agriculture. Climate stressors are in turn aggravated by political turmoil, a divided government, protracted conflict and the presence of a plethora of armed groups. These factors, which have contributed to mismanagement, corruption and a lack of good governance, affect efforts to address climate-related risks, including those that may influence peace and security dynamics.
Climate change and peacebuilding: sub-themes of an emerging research agenda
Climate change is having profound effects on global security and peacebuilding efforts. While existing research has mainly focused on the link between climate change and conflict, it has largely overlooked the complex interplay between climate change, conflict-affected states and peacebuilding. Climate change exacerbates existing vulnerabilities in conflict-affected societies by adding stress to livelihoods and negatively impacting food, water and energy security. This is particularly concerning as climate change is often felt most acutely in settings where public institutions are already failing to meet the population's needs. Consequently, climate change can contribute to exacerbating grievances and hinder the ability to maintain, reinforce and build peace. Although practitioners in the peacebuilding field are beginning to respond to the effects of climate change, academic research has not adequately addressed the question of how climate change affects peacebuilding and how peacebuilding strategies can respond effectively. To fill this gap, a multidisciplinary approach drawing from climate security, environmental peacebuilding, environmental studies, and peace and conflict studies is needed in order to develop a research agenda that encompasses the intersections of climate change and peacebuilding. By recognizing the importance of climate change in peacebuilding efforts, this research agenda aims to provide critical insights and guide future studies.
Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: South Sudan
Unpredictable annual variations in extreme weather events, like flooding and droughts, affect agriculture-dependent communities and influence pastoralist mobility patterns and routes. Such changes may intensify the risk of tensions between herders and farmers, often in connection with land, grazing, water and communal affairs. Transhumance, including cross-border migration from Sudan through the Greater Upper Nile in particular, exacerbates the spread of veterinary diseases and fuels environmental degradation and competition over scarce resources. Women and girls continue to bear the brunt of the effects of climate change; female-headed households are especially vulnerable. Climate-related livestock losses compounded by pre-existing rivalries increase the risk of cattle raiding, which can trigger retaliation, communal conflict, displacement, deepening intercommunal rivalry and the formation of armed groups.
Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: South Sudan
Flooding and droughts significantly disrupt livelihood patterns and food-security and may result in temporary displacement or longer-term migration. Such shocks exacerbate vulnerabilities and weaken the resilience and adaptive capacity of agriculture-dependent communities; they can heighten competition over natural resources, sometimes leading to cattle raiding and communal conflict. Unpredictable annual variation and extreme weather events, like flooding and droughts, affect pastoralist mobility patterns and routes, and farmers’ agricultural production. These changes may exacerbate tensions between herders and farmers, often in connection with land, grazing, water and communal conflicts. Female-headed households are especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change, as most depend on agriculture to sustain their families, and rely on natural resources like firewood and water. Climate-related livestock losses compound ongoing rivalries, increasing the risk of cattle raiding, which can trigger retaliations, communal conflicts, displacement and the growth of new or existing armed groups.
Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: Iraq
• Increasing temperatures, decreasing water availability and greater inter-annual variability in rainfall negatively affect agriculture, reduce household income and food availability, and exacerbate livelihood insecurity. Women and girls are disproportionately affected by the adverse effects of climate change, due to pre-existing gender norms and persisting inequalities. • Low agriculture yields and loss of livelihoods contribute to increased urban migration, with urban challenges including the risk of social unrest and protests in host cities. • Armed groups and militias leverage the economic hardships, further exacerbated by the compounding effects of climate change, for recruitment and support. Weak governance increases the opportunities for elite exploitation and corruption, which leads to further marginalization and exclusion that feed grievances and drive instability.
Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: Afghanistan
Afghanistan is highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change: rising temperatures, changing precipitation patterns and increasingly frequent extreme weather events. Currently, Afghanistan is experiencing its worst drought in 27 years, which, compounded with COVID-19 and the economic contraction that followed the takeover of the government by the Taliban in August 2021, has significantly increased livelihood and food insecurity and contributed to a growing humanitarian emergency. Climate change exacerbates the deteriorating conditions for agriculture-based livelihoods and food insecurity. Conflict and the effects of climate change have increased internal displacement and changed migration patterns. High levels of displacement accentuate food and livelihood insecurity and increase the vulnerability of marginalised groups, including women. The effects of climate change may heighten the risk of more frequent and intense local conflicts over land and water and increase tensions over transboundary resources. Conflict has eroded the resilience of communities and local authorities to adapt to climate change and to deal with the current humanitarian crisis. This creates opportunities for elites to manipulate and profit from land and water disputes, with elevated risks for marginalised groups.
Hvis ikke Norge går i bresjen for en grønn omstilling, hvem da?
The faster Norway embarks on a responsible but speedy end to its reliance on oil, the greater the potential reputational, diplomatic, and commercial gains for Norway, write three NUPI researchers in this op-ed.
Is Somalia’s hunger and homelessness crisis beyond hope?
An ever-growing number of people across Somalia are leaving their homes to escape conflict and the impact of extreme weather events that have devastated the livelihoods of farmers and herders. Dr. Andrew E. Yaw Tchie comments.
Displaced by the Climate
A Sky News analysis found that weather-related disasters in 2020 led to people in the poorest nations moving almost five times as often as those in richer ones. Dr. Andrew E. Yaw Tchie contributes with insights from research on Somalia and the Horn of Africa.
Climate change and violent conflict in Mali
Since May 2020, violent conflict has killed 2,070 people in Mali. Insecurity has forcibly displaced more than 300,000 people, of whom 56 per cent are women. The drivers of Mali’s multiple conflicts are not arcane. Meaningful dialogues around poverty, marginalisation, limited livelihood opportunities, weak governance, political instability and more, can open doors to engaging with the community militias and armed groups that operate in the country. More reason, then, to ensure that the turbulent winds of climate change do not blow those doors shut.
Fiche technique sur le climat, la paix et la sécurité au Mali
Le Mali est un pays exposé aux variations du climat à court terme et aux changements climatiques à long terme en raison d’une forte vulnérabilité aux effets négatifs des changements climatiques, mais aussi d’une croissance démographique élevée, d’une résilience limitée et de multiples conflits violents. Le Mali devrait connaître une hausse des températures et des précipitations irrégulières, qui pourraient affecter la stabilité des saisons et ugmenter le risque de sécheresses et d’inondations. De plus, les conflits, l’instabilité politique et la faiblesse des institutions gouvernementales empêchent le pays de s’adapter efficacement aux changements climatiques. • Les changements climatiques peuvent affecter la régularité des saisons et détériorer les moyens de subsistance fondés sur les ressources naturelles. La précarité des conditions de vie peut interagir avec les facteurs politiques et économiques et intensifier les risques de conflits relatifs à l’accès aux ressources naturelles et à leur utilisation. • Les conflits, l’expansion de l’agriculture et les conditions environnementales changeantes ont affecté les routes de transhumance du bétail, incitant les éleveurs à se déplacer vers des zones dans lesquelles il y a beaucoup de pression sur les ressources naturelles ou dans lesquelles l’usage partagé des ressources est mal défini. Cela peut intensifier les risques de conflits avec d’autres éleveurs et agriculteurs. • L’évolution de la dynamique des conflits a accentué la dépendance entre les conflits locaux liés aux ressources naturelles, les affrontements entre ommunautés ethniques/religieuses et la guerre civile. Les conflits locaux deviennent de plus en plus violents, complexes et difficiles à résoudre. • La mauvaise gouvernance et les politiques agricoles ont provoqué des inégalités sociales, économiques et politiques qui alimentent les conflits. Ces mêmes facteurs minent la résilience des communautés aux changements climatiques, en particulier quand il s’agit de groupes marginalisés.
Fiche technique sur le climat, la paix et la sécurité au Sahel
La région du Sahel est fortement exposée au changement climatique. Toutefois, en raison de facteurs relevant des contextes national et local, ce dernier ura des impacts différenciés dans la région. Les températures deviendront progressivement plus élevées dans la région et certaines zones connaîtront es niveaux de précipitations accrus, mais irréguliers. Dans l’immédiat, ces tendances pourraient se traduire par des saisons irrégulières, des périodes de écheresse et des inondations. L’interaction avec des facteurs d’ordre social, économique et politique pourrait exacerber les vulnérabilités existantes et accroître les risques de conflits violents: • Les changements dans les régimes pluviométriques et les tendances saisonnières peuvent parfois attiser et exacerber des conflits violents dont l’enjeu st l’accès à des ressources limitées ou inégalement réparties. Les femmes et les filles sont particulièrement vulnérables. Partout au Sahel, le changement climatique peut accentuer le risque d’affrontements entre éleveurs et agriculteurs autour de l’accès à l’eau et aux pâturages. • Les catastrophes d’apparition soudaine et le changement climatique à long terme peuvent forcer des populations à se déplacer de manière temporaire ou permanente et parfois à rejoindre des personnes déplacées par des conflits armés. La migration est une importante stratégie d’adaptation qui peut toutefois entraîner des conflits entre communautés d’accueil et communautés de migrants. • Les catastrophes et le changement climatique entraînent une érosion de la résilience, aggravant ainsi la vulnérabilité des communautés aux prédations de groupes armés et aux manipulations opérées par les élites. Certains groupes armés recrutent dans des communautés dont les moyens de subsistance sont affectés par des facteurs comme le changement climatique. Par ailleurs, les milices locales peuvent aggraver les conflits entre agriculteurs et éleveurs.
Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet Mali
Mali is characterised by short-term climate variability, and is vulnerable to long-term climate change due to high exposure to the adverse effects of climate change, but also high population growth, diminished resilience and multiple violent conflicts. Mali is forecast to become hotter with more erratic rainfall, impacting seasonal regularity and increasing the risk of droughts and floods. Moreover, conflict, political instability and weak government institutions undermine effective adaptation to climate change.
The impact of climate change on Africa’s peace and security
The gradual rise in global temperatures, irregular rainfall and floods have indirect, complex and coherent implications for peace and security. On March 9 2021, the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council met at state level to discuss these challenges. The Peace and Security Council presented various recommendations concerning climate and security. This op-ed is based on the communique published after the meeting and presents opportunities for how the African Union, together with regional economic communities/regional mechanisms, member states and others, can work together to strengthen efforts surrounding climate and security challenges.
The Impact of Climate Change on Peace and Security in Somalia: Implications for AMISOM
The February 2021 mandate renewal for the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) is an opportunity to review what we know about climate change and security in Somalia, and to consider what governments and multilateral organisations can do to improve the way they manage climate related security risks. Research finds no direct causal relationship between climate and conflict but has identified multiple pathways through which climate-related change interacts with political, social, and environmental stresses to compound existing vulnerabilities and tensions. These factors combined can undermine development gains, impact the dynamics of ongoing violence and disrupt fragile peace processes. Additional pressures, such as COVID-19, compound the risk and makes a country like Somalia even more vulnerable to shocks and setbacks, as the recent political crisis shows.
Climate, Peace and Security: The case of South Sudan
The consequences of climate change can worsen South Sudan’s humanitarian crises and fragile security environment, marked by widespread communal conflict and a civil war since 2013. With a population estimated at 11 million, more than 1.6 million people have been internally displaced due to prolonged conflict.
UN Security Council to Discuss Climate-Related Conflict, But What Role Should It Play?
Last month, the United Nations (UN) Secretary-General called the latest assessment report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) a “code red for humanity,” noting that the evidence is irrefutable: global heating is affecting every region on Earth, with many of the changes becoming irreversible. His message is one that all countries are now recognizing: climate change is not a future risk. It is already affecting every aspect of our collective lives, including our ability to sustain international peace and security.
Why peace is important for COP and why COP26 is important for peace
In the medium to long-term, the most effective prevention against the worst effects of climate change - including violent conflict over scarce resources - is the reduction of carbon emissions. However, how we go about reducing emissions, and how we choose to adapt and mitigate, can either cause harm, including potentially triggering conflict, or it can contribute to sustaining peace.
Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet Sahel
The Sahel region is highly exposed to climate change, but national and local factors mean that climate change will have differentiated impacts across the region. The region will gradually become hotter, with some areas experiencing increased, but erratic, rainfall. The immediate effects of these trends may include irregular seasons, droughts and floods. Interacting with social, economic and political factors, these could exacerbate existing vulnerabilities and increase the risk of violent conflict: • Changing rainfall and seasonal patterns can sometimes fuel and compound violent conflict over limited or unevenly distributed resources. Women and girls are especially vulnerable. Across the Sahel, climate change may increase the risk of clashes between herders and farmers over access water and pastures. • Rapid-onset disasters and long-term climate change may force people to temporarily or permanently move, sometimes joining people displaced by armed conflicts. Migration is an important adaptation strategy, but it can lead to conflict between host and migrant communities. • Disasters and climate change erode resilience, increasing the vulnerability of communities to predation by armed groups and manipulation by elites. Some armed groups recruit from communities whose livelihoods are affected by factors including climate change; and local militias can escalate farmer–herder conflicts.
Emerging Lessons from Implementing Climate-Related Peace and Security Mandates
Six of the ten largest United Nations-led peace operations in 2020 were located in countries that are the most exposed to climate change. Both UN peacekeeping operations and special political missions are increasingly mandated by the UN Security Council to consider and respond to climate-related security risks. In response, UN peace operations have tried to more effectively respond to climate-related peace and security challenges by adapting existing approaches and exploring innovative new ways in which to operationalize these tasks. Efforts to translate these climate and environmental-related mandates into policies and practices are a work in progress, and can benefit from ongoing learning, monitoring, and adaptation. In this regard, lessons and good practices for integrating climate-related security risks into policies, analysis, activities, and reporting are beginning to emerge.
How climate insecurity could trigger more conflict in Somalia
Climate change effects such as droughts, flash floods, erratic rainfall, disruption to the monsoon seasons, strong winds, cyclones, sandstorms, dust storms and increased temperature are being experienced across Somalia. These effects are affecting livelihoods, and contributing to local grievances and community tensions.
Grappling with and Adapting to Climate Change in South Sudan
Almost a decade since the conflict in South Sudan commenced, the conflict has become further fragmented, with indiscriminate violence across the country being highly varied. Playing into these complex conflict dynamics are the impacts of climate change,which may further grievances and tensions. South Sudan is one of the countries in the world most affected by climate change. It is projected that by the mid-21st century, the Sahel band will include South Sudan. Adding to this challenge is a lack of sufficient funding, knowledge capacity and technical resources, weakening the government’s ability to adapt to the impacts of climate change, further increasing climate-related security risks