Dynamics of de facto state patron-client relations (DeFacto)
Almost all de facto states that survive for some time have a powerful 'patron' that provides security guarantees and economic support. Too often this has resulted in the de facto states simp...
The role of the UN Security Council in cybersecurity: international peace and security in the digital age
At the 75th anniversary of the United Nations, the UN Security Council is faced with difficult questions about its efficacy, relevance and legitimacy. The leading powers and the permanent members (P5) of the Security Council – China, France, Russia, the UK and the USA – are drawn into a heavy contest over the world order. Power lines are (to be) drawn in an increasingly digital, interconnected and multi-stakeholder society. So far, despite the language from heads of states, global media houses and from leaders of international organizations including NATO and the UN, none of the P5 countries have brought cyber to the UNSC. Other countries – for instance, Lithuania and the Netherlands – have considered introducing cybersecurity issues in the Council, but no action has followed. One of the most recent members-elect, Estonia, has pledged to take the issue up. To stay relevant and act up on its responsibility for international peace and security, the Security Council will have to establish itself vis-à-vis cyber issues. The goal of this chapter is to examine why and how. To what extent do questions pertaining to digital threats and cybersecurity fall within the mandate of the Council and what could it address given the politically tense times among the P5.
New meta-review of 204 publications on renewable energy and geopolitics
In their recently published meta-review, Senior Research Fellow Roman Vakulchuk and Research Professor Indra Øverland have systematized and analysed available research in the field.
Putin’s Ancien Régime
After 20 years with Vladimir Putin in power, Putin’s Russia is becoming an ancien régime. The gap between Russia’s aspirations for a significant global role, and its ability and capacity to sustain such a role (always a challenge for Russia’ rulers), is now growing. Putin has not learned from history and from his predecessors. Russia continues to try to punch above its weight, with attempts to destabilize by creating new geopolitical “realities,” as in the case of Crimea. At home, the population is dissatisfied, and the regime is under pressure to come up with new solutions to old problems.
How the green transition will lead to a more peaceful world
The green transition will undoubtedly affect geopolitics. But how? NUPI researchers have taken a systematic look at 204 publications in the first meta-review on the field of renewable energy and geopolitics.
Renewable energy and geopolitics: A review
This article reviews the literature on the geopolitics of renewable energy. It finds that while the roots of this literature can be traced back to the 1970s and 1980s, most of it has been published from 2010 onwards. The following aggregate conclusions are extracted from the literature: renewable energy has many advantages over fossil fuels for international security and peace; however, renewable energy is thought to exacerbate security risks and geopolitical tensions related to critical materials and cybersecurity; former hydrocarbon exporters will likely be the greatest losers from the energy transition. Many of the reviewed publications share some weaknesses: a failure to define “geopolitics”; an unwarranted assumption that very little has been published in the field previously; limited use of established forecasting, scenario-building or foresight methodologies; a lack of recognition of the complexity of the field; a lack of theorisation. Most authors do not distinguish between the geopolitical risks associated with different types of renewable energy, and only a few distinguish clearly between the geopolitics of the transitional phase and the geopolitics of a post-energy transition world. A disproportionately large part of the literature is dedicated to critical materials and cybersecurity, while only a small part concerns the decline of former fossil fuel powers. Among those publications that do discuss the decline of fossil fuels, there is also an over-focus on oil producers and a lack of attention to the countries that rely heavily on coal, for example Australia, China, Germany, Indonesia, Poland and the United States.
China from careful participant to budding development partner
While the rest of the world is shutting down China is restarting its machinery after months of strict infection measures. China’s role as a development actor may grow.
Staten, barnevernet og utenrikspolitikken. Fra indre anliggende til internasjonal konfliktsone
Norwegian diplomats spend a great deal of time and resources responding to international criticism against Norway’s child welfare services. Such cases can enter the foreign policy domain when the criticism is raised in a bilateral context, or authoritative institutions challenge Norway’s standing as a frontrunner in family affairs. This article maps the criticism, discusses Norwegian diplomatic responses to it, and reflects on why Norwegian references to “the child’s best interest” may deepen rather than ease conflict.
Consequences for the seafood industry of termination of the European Economic Area (EEA) Agreement
The main aim of the project is the publication of a book in Norwegian about the consequences for the seafood industry if the EEA agreement is terminated....