Using satellite data and machine learning to study conflict-induced environmental and socioeconomic destruction in data-poor conflict areas: The ca...
This paper studies socioeconomic and environmental changes in the neighboring areas Bangladesh-Myanmar border from 2012 to 2019, thus covering the period before and after the 2017 Rakhine conflict in Myanmar and outflux of refugees across the border to Bangladesh. Given the scarcity and costliness of traditional data collection methods in such conflict areas, the paper uses a novel methodological model based on very-high-resolution satellite imagery, nighttime satellite imagery, and machine-learning algorithms to generate reliable and reusable data for comparative assessment of the impacts of the Rakhine conflict. Assessments of welfare and environmental risks using this approach can be accurate and scalable across different regions and times when other data are unavailable. Key findings are: the general livelihood situation has worsened and income sources shrunk in Rakhine; forced migration damaged the ecologically fragile regions in the two countries; the destruction of aquaculture wetland ecosystems is observed in Rakhine; the deforestation rate reached 20% in Rakhine and 13% on the Bangladeshi side of the border. The results can provide guidance to policymakers and international actors as they work to repatriate the victims of the conflict in Rakhine and minimize the conflict’s security and environmental consequences. The methodology can be applied to other data-poor conflict and refugee areas in the world.
Governance, Social Policy, and Political Economy: Trends in Norway’s Partner Countries
In 2017–2018, NUPI (the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs) headed a project where political economy analyses were undertaken in eleven of Norway’s partner countries. These analyses were published as eleven separate reports. The reports focused on power relations and political developments in the partner countries, but they also analyzed the nature of governance. After the publication of the World Bank’s Worldwide Governance Indicators for 2019, the MFA approached NUPI and requested that we summarize the findings of this report for Norway’s eleven partner countries and assess these findings in light of the political economy analyses. We were also asked to investigate whether there were any connections between the nature and quality of governance on the one hand, and the nature of social policies and the human rights situation on the other. This report presents the findings of this assessment of the governance scores in the light of the above-mentioned political economy analyses. The report is structured as follows: Firstly, after briefly describing the governance indictors used by the World Bank, we summarize the eleven countries’ scores on the various governance indicators. Secondly, we assess the evolution of governance in the eleven countries, by comparing the scores in the 2019 report with those from 2011. Thirdly, we summarize the findings of the political economy analyses of the eleven countries and discuss how they fit with the governance scores. Finally, we present the eleven countries’ expenditure on social policies, as reported in the ILOs World Social Protection Report, and the human rights situation for the partner countries, and then describe how these findings relate to the governance scores.
Informal elites as local bureaucrats: Why working as a tax collector increases the local accountability of city chiefs in Congo
We are excited to announce that this semester’s third seminar in our Tax for Development Webinar Series will take place on Tuesday April 13th at 03:00 PM (CET). The speaker is Jonathan Weigel (London School of Economics). He will present the paper “Informal elites as local bureaucrats: Why working as a tax collector increases the local accountability of city chiefs in Congo”.
A Governance and Risk Inventory for a Changing Arctic
In this chapter, Elana Wilson Rowe, Ulf Sverdrup, Karsten Friis, Geir Hønneland, and Mike Sfraga caution against viewing trends of conflict and cooperation in the Arctic in binary terms. While the US and Europe are determined to confront malign activity in the region, all sides continue to “demonstrate a commitment to cooperation and joint solutions to common challenges.” After reviewing the key factors and drivers supporting and challenging stability in the Arctic, the authors remind us that “cooperation in conflict” has long been the norm in the region, allowing cooperative governance to progress despite the enduring NATO-Russia military rivalry. Ongoing dialogue in the region – essential for addressing the regional and global implications of climate change – is poorly served by focussing on “narratives or practices of strategic competition alone.” To avoid “political tipping points” beyond which cooperation will become too difficult, the authors call on policymakers to be more proactive in how they address emerging governance challenges related to security and economic development.
Resilience in the age of crises
This research paper examines the concept 'resilience' as a response to the constantly changing environments and turbulence of the world. While resilience is used by several international organisations and nation states, there is still a lack of consensus regarding what the concept really means – it denotes both resisting change and being willing to adapt at the same time. This paper offers some clarity and argues that a temporal dimension is needed when applying the concept of resilience.
Politique africaine et méditerranéenne de la France : vers une réinvention de l’exceptionnalisme ?
Engagement in Africa is still at the heart of French foreign policy. Over the past twenty years, this African policy has undergone significant changes, which seem to confirm the hypothesis of a reinvention of French exceptionalism, more than its end. It is no secret that French foreign policy practices in Africa have had a negative image associated with Françafrique - a loaded concept that refers to the patronage and corrupt activities of French and African political, economic and military actors. These practices, without having completely disappeared, seem in the process of being replaced. How to characterize them? Are they still an instrument for strengthening French exceptionalism, and if so, how? Besides, is exceptionalism still an interesting concept to help understand French foreign policy in general, and African policy in particular?
UN peace operations in a multipolar order: Building peace through the rule of law and bottom-up approaches
UN peace operations need a new peacebuilding agenda that acknowledges both the transboundary nature of conflict drivers and the multipolar nature of the global order. This means casting aside the current stabilization approach, but also abandoning the pursuit of liberal peacebuilding of the unipolar era. Such a conflict transformation agenda would require UN peace operations to prioritize the rule of law and bottom-up approaches, thus creating the potential to be embraced by a much broader range of member states. In this article, we bring liberal peacebuilding critiques into a discussion with debates on the nature of the global order. Liberal peacebuilding critiques are rooted in the bottom-up problematization of international interventions and show what kind of peacebuilding is desirable. Conversely, the debates on the multipolar nature of the global order expose the top-down constraints as to what kind of peacebuilding is feasible.
The crises threatening the EU today
Corona crisis, legitimization crisis and climate crisis. These are merely a few of the obstacles currently facing the EU. How is it coping? And where will the EU find itself in 2025? EU crisis management is in focus in a new book by Prof. Marianne Riddervold (NUPI and HINN) and colleagues.
Reference group for Norway's membership in the UN Security Council
Norway has a seat in the UN Security Council in 2021 - 2022. Through this project we will facilitate meetings with the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs to discuss important strategic issues....
US., Russian warships dock in Sudan as countries eye strategic port
US and Russian warships docked in Port Sudan on the Red Sea coast. Washington is seeking to establish ties with Sudan's after it agreed to normalize ties. Dr Andrew E. Yaw Tchie of the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs joins Rick Sanchez to share his expertise (from 8:34).