Global governance

TTIP and Norway: Impact and trade policy options

This study analyzes TTIP, its implications for Norway and Norway’s trade policy choices. TTIP will hardly be concluded under Obama's presidency, but the agreement could become a reality within a few years. TTIP aims at comprehensive cooperation in the regulatory area. In the short term there will be limited harmonization of standards but regulatory cooperation between different systems. In the long term, the goal is stronger cooperation in the regulatory area. TTIP will from what we know not lead to a lowering of European health regulations or a "race to the bottom". If TTIP is realized and Norway remains outside, the EEA Agreement will be little affected and the overall economic impact is moderate. If Norway joins TTIP, there will be a significant real income gain, with estimates ranging from 2236 to 6772 NOK per capita in the various scenarios. There is considerable variation across sectors. With Norway outside TTIP there will be a moderate negative impact for a majority of the sectors, especially some manufacturing sectors that face tougher competition in the EU and USA export markets. The oil industry will benefit from increased demand and higher prices. If Norway joins TTIP, a clear majority of industries will benefit; especially business services and a number of other service industries. The public sector gains from TTIP, mainly due to cheaper inputs. TTIP will contribute to the dismantling of import protection for Norwegian agriculture and without compensating measures, production and employment will be reduced. TTIP will still allow some import protection and this margin of maneuver, which depends on future negotiations, is important for the outcome. With a larger margin of manoeuvre and unchanged budgetarty support, most of Norway’s agriculture can be maintained. With less margin of manoeuvre, it will be more challenging. Norwegian accession to TTIP may occur in the form of a standard trade agreement in which Norway or EFTA are formally equal to the EU and the United States. Alternatively, Norway may participate in a European pillar as in today's "Open Skies" agreement on air traffic. If TTIP succeeds in establishing comprehensive regulatory cooperation, the latter solution is most likely. Such a solution implies that Norway will become more closely integrated with the European Union also in trade policy towards third countries. Norwegian entry into TTIP implies that we have to accept the established rules and negotiate bilaterally with the EU and the USA on market access. The negotiations with the USA will apply to all aspects of market access, while negotiations with the EU will apply only to areas in which the EEA agreement is not already deeper. The negotiations with the EU for TTIP entry will thus include, among other issues, tariffs for seafood and agriculture. As an alternative to membership in TTIP, Norway or EFTA may initiate a trade agreement with the USA. Such an agreement would likely be less extensive in the regulatory area. Such an agreement will also provide an economic gain for Norway, but less than accession to TTIP. For Norway as a whole, accession to TTIP creates a real income gain between 12.5 and 35 billion NOK according to various scenarios, while a free trade agreement with the United States results in a gain of about 7.4 billion NOK. TTIP also includes negotiations on so-called Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS), whereby foreign-owned companies can sue a state if they are unfairly or inappropriately treated. Such rights also exist in national law but international tribunals have to some extent extended the interpretation of what is considered unfair. The European Union has proposed a solution in TTIP with a permanent court as well as rules that discipline the interpretation of the principles, and thus avoids that ISDS unduly interferes into the states’ "right to regulate". This and many other issues are analysed in this report and six background papers.

Annerledesdemokratiet

SGBV Capacity-building in Peace Operations: Specialized Police Teams

This Policy Brief examines the Norwegian-led specialized police team (SPT) deployed to MINUSTAH, focusing on building Haitian police capacity to investigate sexual and genderbased violence (SGBV)

External powers and the Arab Spring: Summary and conclusions

External powers and the Arab Spring

Governance in the Middle East is a sad story, and the fate of the Arab Spring added to the misery. After the initial euphoria, much got worse. Except in Tunisia, where Islamic and secular political groups compete for power in a democratic political system. This book examines the role of external powers during the Arab Spring in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia. How did the United States and the European Union react? What did Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Israel and Iran – regional states not directly affected by the revolutionary uprisings – do? All of them acted on the basis of their own values and interests, with scant regard for the preferences of the local actors. Some tried to promote democratic practice and human rights, but were hampered by their own inefficiencies and conflicting interests. In the end, none of them mattered very much: they were little more than bystanders. In this book, leading international experts in their respective fields offer perspectives and analyses that, hopefully, will be of use in shaping more effective support for better governance at critical junctures in the future. The book is a joint project of the Toda Institute for Global Policy and Research in Hawai and the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI) in Oslo.

Polen – fra europeisk suksesshistorie til Europas problembarn?

The article examines recent developments in Poland, focusing on the 2015 presidential and parliamentary elections, and their impact on the process of reshaping the political landscape in Poland and its relations with partners. Current developments are situated in the broader historical context, and the 2015 election results are analysed, followed by a discussion of the ongoing political processes. The article concludes with a review of old and new political divisions in the country and how these influence internal political developments and Poland’s relations with the outside world.

European security in practice: EU-NATO communities in-the-making?

European security is at a critical juncture and many have called for a more coherent and efficient response, involving both the EU and NATO. However, the primary tool for EU–NATO cooperation, “Berlin Plus”, has been stuck in a political quagmire since the mid-2000s, making a lot of scholars to conclude that this cooperation is obsolete and outdated. This article is challenging this view by analysing a range of informal but regular interaction patterns that have emerged. Using practice theory, it sheds new light on and explores how EU and NATO staff at all levels engage in informal practices on various sites in headquarters in Brussels and in field operations. A study of EU–NATO cooperation as practice focuses on the everyday, patterned production of security as well as what makes action possible, such as (tacit) practical knowledge and shared “background” knowledge (education, training, and experience). The article also discusses the extent to which shared repertoires of practice may evolve into loose communities of practice that cut across organisational and professional boundaries.