Why carbon border adjustment mechanisms will not save the planet but a climate club and subsidies for transformative green technologies may
We find that both empirical results and economic theory show that carbon border adjustment mechanisms (CBAMs) will be ineffective at meeting global goals for carbon emissions reduction; but CBAMs will be effective at improving the competitiveness of the domestic industries by assuring that imports bear equal costs of carbon pricing. We elaborate two complementary proposals that hold greater promise for meeting climate goals: (i) a Climate Club, where member countries impose a minimum price for carbon emissions at home and a tariff surcharge on all imports from non-member countries; and (ii) a 0.2%-of-GDP subsidy by high-income countries for transformative research designed to make green energy cheaper than fossil fuels. We discuss multiple paths for a Climate Club to be accommodated within the rules of the World Trade Organization and recommend use of the exception clause under GATT Article XX.
Introduction to Climate Change in Central Asia
The Central Asian region has been and will continue to be significantly impacted by climate change and all the region’s countries have pledged nation- ally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris agreement. This chapter aims to assess how likely Central Asian countries are to fulfil these pledges. To answer this question, we compare the NDCs to their respective national development programmes and historical trends. The results show that the countries of Central Asia vary in their ability to fulfil their pledges and that doing so will require structural changes to their energy systems, substantial investments in infrastructure and, most importantly, the alignment of their development plans with their declared climate goals. None of the countries have thus far engaged in structural reforms aimed at large-scale climate change adaptation and mitigation.
Climate Change in Central Asia: Decarbonization, Energy Transition and Climate Policy
This chapter provides a broad introduction to the impact of climate change in Central Asia, a region that has been experiencing a greater rise in temperatures than other parts of the world. The chapter shows how climate change represents a significant threat to Central Asia, exacerbating existing economic and environmental challenges and fueling regional tensions over resource management. Inefficient water resource management at the national level and limited regional collaboration on the management of water resources, coupled with state capacities that remain insuffi- cient to tackle climate change impacts, compound water-related tensions between the countries in the region. The chapter also shows how decarbonisation efforts in Central Asia are still in their early stages, with coal remaining a primary source of energy. Although the Central Asian countries have announced decarbonisation targets and adopted green economy strategies and programmes to reduce green- house gas emissions, a large-scale clean energy transition remains unlikely in the short term. The chapter concludes by identifying a lack of scholarship on climate change in Central Asia, which limits the development of a coherent approach to climate change mitigation and adaptation and evidence-based decision-making in the region. The chapter argues that a more coordinated approach to tackling climate change across the region is needed, requiring closer collaboration and more effective joint management of natural resources by the five Central Asian states. Finally, the chapter presents the chapters in the rest of the book.
Central Asian Climate Policy Pledges Under the Paris Agreement: Can They Be Fulfilled?
The Central Asian region has been and will continue to be significantly impacted by climate change and all the region’s countries have pledged nation- ally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris agreement. This chapter aims to assess how likely Central Asian countries are to fulfil these pledges. To answer this question, we compare the NDCs to their respective national development programmes and historical trends. The results show that the countries of Central Asia vary in their ability to fulfil their pledges and that doing so will require structural changes to their energy systems, substantial investments in infrastructure and, most importantly, the alignment of their development plans with their declared climate goals. None of the countries have thus far engaged in structural reforms aimed at large-scale climate change adaptation and mitigation.
Energy Transition in Central Asia: A Systematic Literature Review
While there is abundant research on the expansion of renewable energy in developed countries, little attention has been paid to the decarbonisation of energy systems in Central Asia, despite the region’s vulnerability to climate change, its rapidly growing domestic energy demand and the abundance of natural resources essential for the energy transition. Based on a systematic review of the literature, this chapter provides a comprehensive overview of the profile and trajectory of research on energy in Central Asia between 1991 and 2022. It finds that there was a shift from focusing on fossil fuels to clean energy around 2019–2020. However, despite recent growth, research on renewables and their significance in Central Asia is still sparse. This review indicates that while American and European researchers took the lead in this field in 2012, China, Japan, Kazakhstan and Russia have emerged as the leading contributors since 2016.
Critical Materials for Development: A New Trajectory for Norwegian Foreign Aid Policy
After over a year of war in Ukraine, the world experienced dramatic and negative ripple effects related to food, energy security and commodity markets. Global food and energy shortages are now leading to social instability, protests and conflict and putting increasing pressure on public finances. For instance, prices of basics such as oil and wheat are rising and resulting in severe food shortages in Egypt, Lebanon and Somalia. Low-income countries are likely to be hit hardest by increasing food and energy prices in the long run. As the war continues, various second- and third-order negative effects are likely to intensify.
Czech and Norwegian Perspectives on New Security Threats in relation to Russian War on Ukraine (CZECHNORSEC)
This project will examine how the war in Ukraine is about to change security perceptions in the Czech Republic and Norway....
Dealing with the challenge of political warfare in the COVID-19 and Ukraine war context (FLANKS 2)
This project will investigate how Nordic and Black Sea Region must be prepared to meet and deal with the challenges posed by political warfare....
Norway and Poland as actors in a changing security landscape (NORPOLFACTOR)
The aim of the project is to develop enhanced knowledge of the security-related challenges, risks and threats Poland and Norway face in their strategic environment in the aftermath of the Russian inva...
Book presentation: The Counterinsurgent Imagination
How and why counterinsurgent ideas persist, despite recurring failures?