Violent Mobilization and Non-Mobilization in the North Caucasus
Introduction and overview over violent mobilization in the North Caucasus: Recent developments and context, conflicting identities, state and sub-state violence, causes and limits of violent mobilization in the region.
Exclusion and Inclusion: The Core of Chechen Mobilization to Jihad
The article explores the broad social and relational drivers behind mobilization of Chechens into armed jihad in the Levant. It suggests that the core mobilizing tool in a process toward violent (re-)action is a narrative that projects the Other as so different from, and so dangerous to the Self that the use of violence is legitimized. Moreover, the shift to more radical representations of the other group occurs in a mutual pattern of imagining and interaction between groups. The mobilization of Chechens into armed jihad is explained with reference to the physical and social exclusion of Chechens in Russia and how these experiences have been interpreted and narrated on the one hand and the attempted inclusion of Chechnya/North Caucasus by the global jihadi milieu on the other hand.
WEBINAR: Understanding the global far right: lessons from India
How global is the far right?
Dynamics of de facto state patron-client relations (DeFacto)
Almost all de facto states that survive for some time have a powerful 'patron' that provides security guarantees and economic support. Too often this has resulted in the de facto states simp...
Putin’s Ancien Régime
After 20 years with Vladimir Putin in power, Putin’s Russia is becoming an ancien régime. The gap between Russia’s aspirations for a significant global role, and its ability and capacity to sustain such a role (always a challenge for Russia’ rulers), is now growing. Putin has not learned from history and from his predecessors. Russia continues to try to punch above its weight, with attempts to destabilize by creating new geopolitical “realities,” as in the case of Crimea. At home, the population is dissatisfied, and the regime is under pressure to come up with new solutions to old problems.
WEBINAR: Jihad in the Sahel: Actors, developments and context
Who are the jihadi insurgents, why are they gaining ground, and what are the likely future developments in the Sahel?
Governing the Arctic: The Russian State Commission for Arctic Development and the Forging of a New Domestic Arctic Policy Agenda
After a period of relative neglect in the 1990s and early 2000s, the Arctic is back on the agenda of the Russian authorities. To ensure efficient coordination and implementation of its Arctic strategy, the government in 2015 established a State Commission for Arctic Development. It was to serve as a platform for coordinating the implementation of the government’s ambitious plans for the Arctic, for exchange of information among Arctic actors, and for ironing out interagency and interregional conflicts. Based on a case study of the State Commission for Arctic Development, this article has a twofold goal. First, it explores the current Russian domestic Arctic agenda, mapping key actors and priorities and examining the results achieved so far. Second, it discusses what this case study may tell us the about policy formulation and implementation in Russia today. We find that while the government’s renewed focus on the Arctic Zone has yielded some impressive results, the State Commission has been at best a mixed success. The case study demonstrates how, in the context of authoritarian modernization, the Russian government struggles to come up with effective and efficient institutions for Arctic governance. Moreover, the widespread image of a Russian governance model based on a strictly hierarchic "power vertical" must be modified. Russia’s Arctic policy agenda is characterized by infighting and bureaucratic obstructionism: even when Putin intervenes personally, achieving the desired goals can prove difficult.
COVID-19 and the African Union. Challenges, prospects and side-effects
The African Union is coordinating the effort to contain the spread of COVID-19 in Africa, but the measures introduced are also significantly disrupting the reforms, programmes and operations of the AU.
Renewable energy and geopolitics: A review
This article reviews the literature on the geopolitics of renewable energy. It finds that while the roots of this literature can be traced back to the 1970s and 1980s, most of it has been published from 2010 onwards. The following aggregate conclusions are extracted from the literature: renewable energy has many advantages over fossil fuels for international security and peace; however, renewable energy is thought to exacerbate security risks and geopolitical tensions related to critical materials and cybersecurity; former hydrocarbon exporters will likely be the greatest losers from the energy transition. Many of the reviewed publications share some weaknesses: a failure to define “geopolitics”; an unwarranted assumption that very little has been published in the field previously; limited use of established forecasting, scenario-building or foresight methodologies; a lack of recognition of the complexity of the field; a lack of theorisation. Most authors do not distinguish between the geopolitical risks associated with different types of renewable energy, and only a few distinguish clearly between the geopolitics of the transitional phase and the geopolitics of a post-energy transition world. A disproportionately large part of the literature is dedicated to critical materials and cybersecurity, while only a small part concerns the decline of former fossil fuel powers. Among those publications that do discuss the decline of fossil fuels, there is also an over-focus on oil producers and a lack of attention to the countries that rely heavily on coal, for example Australia, China, Germany, Indonesia, Poland and the United States.
The Shifting Boundaries of Nordic Defence Cooperation
Nordic security and defence cooperation is shifting with the rapid rise and expansion of European defence cooperation. Spanning industrial collaboration, capability development, training and operations, planning, as well as other strategic measures, this new European momentum has manifested itself in several new multilateral frameworks, including the Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO), the Framework Nations Concept (FNC), the European Intervention Initiative (EI2), and the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) However, with so many parallel initiatives emerging, there is a risk they could undermine each other and become a drain on scarce resources.This is the key issue this research paper addresses. It takes stock of recent developments in Nordic defence cooperation, before situating Norway within current European developments and highlighting some of the convergences and possibilities a stronger European defence agenda may bring.