Frankrikes Europa-politikk gir muligheter for Norge
If one wants an EU that is able to protect the values on which European cooperation is based, then the EU must be strengthened. This is the main message of the new French European policy. And Norway should support that, even if it is not an EU member.
Norway – optimising EU non-membership to maximise mutual European added value
Several countries outside the European Union have cooperation agreements with the EU that integrate them more or less into European projects of their choice. One of the ‘third’ countries most integrated into EU activities and EU regulations is Norway. What motivates the Norwegians - whose country would easily qualify for EU membership in all respects - to opt for very far-reaching cooperation, while choosing not to have a full say in all the rules and regulations that such cooperation involves? Pernille Rieker is Research Professor at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, specialised in European integration and European foreign and security policy. In this article she explains how the search for European added value brings Norway very close to EU membership, and why the country chooses to go no further.
Climate Change and Security in the Arctic
A new report by the Center for Climate and Security (CCS), an Institute of the Council on Strategic Risks (CSR), together with the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI), assesses the security risks posed by a warming climate in the Artcic. The analysis looks at two future warming scenarios (curbed and uncurbed) to project security threats alongside potential environmental changes deemed likely in the High North by 2030. The analysis identifies a number of key climate security risks across both warming scenarios, but notes that the risks are more severe and more likely in an “uncurbed” warming scenario. In a “curbed” scenario in which the world takes rapid action to curb climate change, including by transforming energy use, decarbonizing the global economy, and building international institutions to manage climate risks, the Arctic is likely to see fewer opportunities for severe security risks. The report recommends integrating this climate risk analysis into Arctic planning strategies into the coming years, and avoiding the uncurbed warming scenario. Specifically, the analysis highlights five key findings: 1) A warmer and increasingly navigable Arctic will lead to more commercial, civilian, and military activity, rendering the region more prone to accidents and misunderstandings between major players. 2) Increased commercial activity significantly expands the likelihood of states like Russia and China using civilian and commercial actors as vehicles for strategic positioning, dual-use data collection, and for gray zone operations which may escalate to direct confrontation. 3) The institutions that have helped depoliticize and produce stability in the Arctic for several decades may not have sufficient mandates and authorities, or be resilient enough to withstand new demands resulting from climate change. 4) To manage a more complex operating environment in the Arctic, with ever more state and non-state actors, governments will need an integrated toolbox that includes legal, economic, diplomatic, and military instruments. Robust mechanisms for cooperation and communication with civilian and commercial actors will be particularly useful. 5) States are likely to place higher demands on their military forces in the Arctic, particularly as regards to monitoring, assertions of sovereignty, search and rescue, and other Coast Guard duties given higher levels of overall activity in the region. New climatic realities may also reduce the constraints for force projection in the region. At the same time, over-reliance on military approaches in the region could risk escalating conflicts. To build resilience to the above threats, the report recommends that allied Arctic nations begin to advance the elaboration of a “Military Code of Conduct for Arctic Forces,” or other form of renewed dialogue among regional security actors, to address joint security risks.
Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: South Sudan
Flooding and droughts significantly disrupt livelihood patterns and food-security and may result in temporary displacement or longer-term migration. Such shocks exacerbate vulnerabilities and weaken the resilience and adaptive capacity of agriculture-dependent communities; they can heighten competition over natural resources, sometimes leading to cattle raiding and communal conflict. Unpredictable annual variation and extreme weather events, like flooding and droughts, affect pastoralist mobility patterns and routes, and farmers’ agricultural production. These changes may exacerbate tensions between herders and farmers, often in connection with land, grazing, water and communal conflicts. Female-headed households are especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change, as most depend on agriculture to sustain their families, and rely on natural resources like firewood and water. Climate-related livestock losses compound ongoing rivalries, increasing the risk of cattle raiding, which can trigger retaliations, communal conflicts, displacement and the growth of new or existing armed groups.
Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: South Sudan
South Sudan is highly vulnerable to climate change, including flooding, droughts and, most recently, a locust infestation. Long-term climate change, like a gradual increase in temperature, and short-term changes, like increased flooding, have indirect and interlinked implications for peace and security in South Sudan.
How does climate change affect peace and security in South Sudan?
How does climate change affect peace and security in South Sudan?
Crisis update on Central African Republic
For nearly two months Bangui – the capital of the Central African Republic – has been under siege. An alliance of rebel groups is attacking convoys of trucks bringing goods into the country – leading to food shortages and price rises. Fighting has led to a security and humanitarian crisis with over 200,000 people having to flee their homes. Dr Andrew E. Yaw Tchie comments in this TV story.
The crises threatening the EU today
Corona crisis, legitimization crisis and climate crisis. These are merely a few of the obstacles currently facing the EU. How is it coping? And where will the EU find itself in 2025? EU crisis management is in focus in a new book by Prof. Marianne Riddervold (NUPI and HINN) and colleagues.
US., Russian warships dock in Sudan as countries eye strategic port
US and Russian warships docked in Port Sudan on the Red Sea coast. Washington is seeking to establish ties with Sudan's after it agreed to normalize ties. Dr Andrew E. Yaw Tchie of the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs joins Rick Sanchez to share his expertise (from 8:34).
Sudan’s food riots show that the transitional government still has much to achieve
This op-ed, published in The Conversation, argues that Sudan’s political transition is in a precarious phase. Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok’s government is facing a wide variety of challenges, including protests over the price of goods and commodities, and a resurgence of violence in the country’s Darfur region. If the situation continues to unravel, the country could fall into crisis leaving parts of the old regime to retake control.