Nordic Cooperation: Drivers and constraints
Remarks at the seminar "Nordic cooperation amid pandemic travel restrictions"
The Sahel - fragile states and violent entrepreneurs
The Sahel has recently gotten attention from the international community because of the many challenges this realm faces. This webinar marks the end of a three-year long project that has taken a closer look at the Sahel.
The UN in South Sudan 2022: Risks and opportunities in an uncertain peace process
The UN Security Council will in March this year renew the mandate of UNMISS marking the tenth renewal of the Mission’s mandate since it began in 2011.
Navigating High-Profile and Low Availability: Norway and the Emerging US Maritime-Strategic Approach
Summary: Despite a resurgence of Russian naval power, and subsequent increase in US maritime-strategic interest in the Northern Flank and Norway, the grand return of US naval forces to this region is unlikely. Rather, a combination of four separate but interconnected developments form the basis of a new, albeit unarticulated, US maritime-strategic approach to NATO’s Northern Flank. This policy brief looks at these approaches and give the following recommendations: Strengthen the Norwegian defence and naval budgets. Continue and increase European defence integration and cooperation efforts such as Joint Expeditionary Force. European operational planning should reflect the likelihood of limited US naval assistance in the initial phases of a conflict. Work towards European cooperation on maritime out-of-area operations. Explore the potential of replacing Marine Corps presence in Norway with that of the US Army.
Navigating High-Profile and Low Availability: Norway and the Emerging US Maritime-Strategic Approach
Energy, Climate Change and Security: The Russian Strategic Conundrum
Global and regional energy markets are increasingly influenced by policies aimed at climate change mitigation, with possible grave implications for major producers and exporters of fossil fuels – including Russia, which is planning further increases. This article examines the evolution of Russian official thinking on the role of climate change as a strategic factor in policymaking as expressed in key documents on security and in strategic statements made by Presidents Putin and Medvedev (2000–2020). The set of strategic statements examined in this article show surprisingly little attention to this important matter.
Norwegian Gas in Europe in the 2020’s
This article examines the factors that will influence the position of the Norwegian gas on the market in the 2020’s. Starting with an examination of the historical role of Norway as a gas supplier to the EU, this article maps the role of various factors in shaping framework conditions on the European gas market that can influence the position of the Norwegian gas as an energy source. The main conclusion is that Norway will remain an important supplier of gas until 2030 but may face some serious problems to remain relevant after this date due to possible depletion of gas deposits and increased EU focus on the negative impact of fossil fuels on climate change, the development of a more sustainable energy mix in Europe as well as the emergence of new gas suppliers to Europe, first and foremost LNG that could take higher share of the shrinking gas market in Europe. Development of the cost-effective large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology could alleviate some energy transition related pains and make gas more acceptable as a source of energy, also if the development of hydrogen economy were to materialise. The Norwegian gas could be turned into an important input in green hydrogen, a new promising energy source combining the best of the two energy worlds—the fossil one and the green one.
The European Maritime Security and Defence Policy Architecture: Implications for Norway
Maritime security is high on the international and European security agenda, hence a number of new initiatives and actions have developed within the EU, NATO and through bilateral/minilateral agreements. To increase the common capabilities of Europe and secure more targeted responses, there is a need for better coordination between different organizations and forums. NATO’s 2022 Strategic Concept and the EU’s parallel Strategic Compass offer an opportunity to do this. Bilateral and minilateral defence groupings can strengthen European maritime security by accelerating capability development and fostering improved levels of interoperability. Norway should further develop its political dialogue and practical cooperation with the EU, and secure participation in major defence initiatives like the EDF and PESCO, various programmes, and cooperative arrangements with the European Defence Agency (EDA). Norway should pursue further leadership roles within NATO to bolster both its national interests and transatlantic security within the maritime security domain. Norway should actively promote enhanced EUNATO cooperation on maritime security issues, including closer alignment of strategic thinking, policies and investments of the two organisations. Mini-lateral’ structures can allow Norway to join forces with like-minded nations to act rapidly on maritime issues of common importance.
Ismoil Sadullozoda
Ismoil Sadullozoda was a visiting research fellow at NUPI in 2022.