Basra Crude : The Great Game of Iraq's "Southern" Oil
Concepts like “Shiite oil” and “Kurdish oil” obfuscate the debate about Iraq’s energy resources. This paper starts from the proposition that it would be better to call a thing by its name: in terms of the size of reserves, Iraqi oil is first and foremost Basra oil. Accounting for one of the world’s greatest concentrations of petroleum wealth, almost all of Iraq’s supergiant oil fields can be found near Basra or in one of its two neighbouring governorates. The other six Shiite-majority governorates of Iraq have little or no oil, and even the most optimistic estimates of new discoveries in Kurdistan pale in comparison with the reserves of Basra and the far south. This paper examines the political implications of these geopolitical realities - with an emphasis on developments after the Samarra bombing of February 2006, intra-Shiite tensions generally, and the questions of implementing federalism south of Baghdad and adopting a new Iraqi oil law in particular.
Megaton nuclear underground tests and catastrophic events on Novaya Zemlya : A satellite study
During the first NUPI study of the Novaya Zemlya underground nuclear test site in 1991–92, much information was generated. This relates both to facilities and testing activities. One of the most important discoveries made was the enormous catastrophic rockslide caused by an underground test. In recent years, new information has become available also from Russian sources. Declassified US satellite imagery made it possible for NUPI to study in more detail the effects of the powerful underground nuclear tests on Novaya Zemlya. This report contains the most pivotal discoveries and findings during the three years of studying this arctic test site.
International Engagement in Sudan after the CPA : Report on the piloting of OECD/DAC's 'Principles for Good International Engagement in Fragile Sta...
[Abstract] The report analyses the international engagement in Sudan since the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in relation to the Principles for Good International Engagement in Fragile States and Situations, which the OECD/DAC is currently developing. The report concludes that donor coordination has been quite advanced in Sudan, with a number of innovative mechanisms tried out. Furthermore, there has been a concerted effort towards contributing to the building of the South Sudan state. This effort, however, has focused on building institutions from the top down in Juba, without a complementary emphasis on building legitimacy and the relations between state apparatus and society. Moreover, strengthening the relationship between the Government of National Unity and the Government of South Sudan has been given relatively less attention. In terms of peacebuilding, there are also challenges for international engagement. More could have been done to contribute to a short-term peace dividend, and perhaps also to support the implementation of the CPA. On the basis of the experiences of the case of Sudan, the OECD/DAC Principles are found to be very relevant for guiding international engagement.
A Childhood Lost? The Challenges of Successful Disarmament, Demobilisation and Reintegration of Child Soldiers: The Case of West Africa
[Abstract] After a conflict ends, there is a need to disarm, demobilise and reintegrate child soldiers into society. This report examines the challenges of achieving successful disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration (DDR) of child soldiers, with reference to DDR processes in West Africa, and suggests how such problems can be overcome. The challenges posed by the DDR of child soldiers in West Africa are vast and complex. The disarmament and demobilisation phase involves a dilemma between the need to include as many child soldiers as possible in the DDR process (many whom do not carry weapons), with an often- conflicting need to collect as many weapons as possible. In the reintegration phase of DDR come the challenges of rehabilitating former child soldiers, both physically and psychologically; the difficulties of reuniting child soldiers with their families; and the difficulties of creating viable opportunities for demobilised child soldiers in a post-conflict society. It is argued that DDR can succeed only if it addresses the needs of all child soldiers, including those who circumvent the official process, child soldiers who demobilise as adults, and girl soldiers. Moreover, DDR has to address the broader regional implications of conflict; it should take local circumstances into consideration; be carried out within the context of wider post-conflict reconstruction and peace-building; and must address the needs of the entire community into which the former child soldier is to be reintegrated.
Words and Deeds : Russian Foreign Policy and Post-Soviet Secessionist Conflicts
[Abstract] The goal of this report is to examine Russia’s policy towards secessionist conflicts in the post-Soviet space. In order to better understand Russia’s policy choices in that sphere, the report addresses three key issues: the internal Russian debate on separatism as a security challenge in the post-Soviet space; Moscow’s policies with regard to international institutions, regimes and frameworks; and the rising security agenda of international terrorism. The report is divided into five sections. The first chapter briefly outlines the scope of the study. The second chapter presents a theoretical framework used to address the issue of Russian policy towards the secessionist conflicts. The third chapter contains a detailed case study of Russian policy towards the secessionist conflict between Moldova and Transdniester. The fourth analyses Russia’s policy towards the conflicts between Abkhazia and Georgia and South Ossetia and Georgia, while the fifth chapter presents authors’ conclusions. The theoretical framework chosen by the authors of this study derives from two major schools in IR theory – the liberal-institutional one, and the constructivist one. On the one hand they raise the traditional neo-liberal question of the validity of institutions in international relations; on the other hand they ask how the ability of institutional frameworks to address various problems is affected by the identities of the actors who interact in the institutional arena. The report addresses the issue of Russian policy towards the secessionist conflicts in the post-Soviet space designed and implemented by President Vladimir Putin’s administration. It departs from the OSCE Istanbul Summit in 1999, where agreements on the withdrawal of Russian forces from both Moldova and Georgia were reached. According to the Istanbul Pact, Russia was to withdraw its forces from these two countries in line with the CFE Treaty. At the same time, however, Russia has been playing an active part in the international community’s attempt at finding a viable solution to secessionist conflicts in the same areas. The report analyses how the Putin administration has framed the issue of secessionist conflicts and separatism in statements and doctrines and how this has influenced Russia’s policy towards the conflicts themselves and towards the institutions that are actively involved in the work on conflict resolution. In the authors view, Russia has since the early 1990s pursued an inconsistent and incoherent policy towards the separatist conflicts in the post-Soviet space. After having recognized the importance of separatism as a security challenge and threat within Russia and within the post-Soviet space, Russia has however chosen not to translate this approach into a viable and coherent policy towards these conflicts. Instead of pursuing a policy of unambiguous support for the territorial integrity of the states haunted by secessionist conflicts, Russia seems to have adopted a policy of playing the separatist card for its own purposes and has sought to maximize its geopolitical gains and retain some control in the areas that it deems important for the realization of its partly outdated geopolitical strategy. This policy may yield some short-term geopolitical gains, but in the longer term it may undermine Russia’s credibility as a predictable and serious international partner, as a ‘normal’ great power seeking its own new place on the recently redrawn global power map.
European Identity and Its Changing Others
Taking its clue from Finnish experiences with identity politics, this lecture introduces the concept of collective identity. Collective identity is about forging an acting ‘we’. It constitutes the polis, and is therefore basic to any politics. Constituting the polis is a relational act: the group in question constitutes itself by drawing up and maintaining boundaries towards other groups. Drawing on these insights, the bulk of the lecture discusses European identity in term of Europe’s relations to some of its constituting others. Pointing to the importance of not sealing itself off from its Muslim citizens and neighbours, the lecture ends with a plea for Turkish EU membership.
Implementing Human Rights Norms : A Case Study of Russia's Partial Compliance to ECHR Protocol No. 6
In December 1991, Russia started down the road of its post-Soviet existence. The re-emergence of Russia as a separate, independent entity compelled the state to come to terms with its revived national identity. Russia’s relationship with the West lay at the core of the challenge to define what Russia is and how it should relate to the outside world. Opinion divided over whether Russia should rapidly integrate with Europe and “return to the civilized community of nations” or whether it should seek “a strengthening of Russia’s positions in the East” and rather pursue its unique mission as a mediator between the East and West. Against this backdrop I have analysed Russia’s membership in the Council of Europe (CoE) and Russia’s partial compliance to the European Convention on the Protection of Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms (ECHR) Protocol No. 6, which refer to the abolishment of the death penalty in peacetime. Employing constructivist insights, I argue that this partial compliance is explained by the lack of a coherent and widely accepted national identity. Due to different perceptions of Russia’s identity among various state actors, identities collide, and interests, and consequently action, will be in a competing and conflictual relationship to each other. Thus, norm compliance is challenged when identities overlap and their norms conflict. This, I argue, is evident in Russia’s relationship with the European ideational community and the country’s dealing with the death penalty issue. The more Russian state actors value the European identity of their state, the more they will seek to comply with “European” norms, such as the strong European abolitionist norm, and vice versa. In my analysis, I also discuss whether it is right to completely dismiss rational explanations to Russia’s partial compliance. In this way I bring my case into the midst of the rational–constructivist debate in International Relations theory. Contributing to this debate, I investigate whether an either-or approach is the most productive way of explaining Russia’s ideational behaviour or whether rational and constructivist assumptions combined may shed new light on how to understand Russian compliance with international human rights norms or the lack of such.
Review of the Norwegian Program for Indigenous Peoples in Guatemala
The present review was commissioned in order to assess how the current project portfolio of the Norwegian Indigenous Peoples Program in Guatemala corresponds to the approved strategy, and to develop more concrete recommendations for the implementation of this strategy. The review concludes that while this strategy continues to be valid, it has not been followed in the selection of partner organizations and projects supported. A number of the projects fall completely outside of the thematic areas of the strategy, and as a whole the portfolio appears fragmented and unfocused. Recommendations include tighter adherence to the thematic concentration of the strategy, closer attention to the potential for having strategic impacts when selecting partner organizations, and the introduction of multiyear funding for the stronger of these organizations.
Sistani, the United States and Politics in Iraq : From Quietism to Machiavellianism?
This paper discusses the two prevailing interpretations of the political attitudes of the Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the leading Shiite cleric in Iraq today. It is argued that neither the traditional “quietist” paradigm nor more recent Machiavellian interpretations can satisfactorily explain Sistani’s actions. An alternative interpretation is offered which highlights Sistani’s historical oscillation between passive and activist positions. It is suggested that, after an activist intermezzo from June 2003 to December 2004, Sistani has reverted to a more secluded role, again showing an increasing reluctance to fulfil the wishes of his many wooers in Iraqi politics, and limiting his interference to matters directly connected with the Shiite faith and its institutions. It is concluded that Sistani’s professional interests as a cleric – rather than any constant desire on his part to control and manipulate domestic politics – may be the key to understanding any future intervention in the political process in Iraq. Scepticism is also expressed toward the notion of Sistani as a guarantor for a “moderate” or “secular” Iraqi political system that would supposedly be fundamentally different from that of Iran – an idea that has featured prominently in policy-making circles in the United States and in other Western countries currently involved in Iraq.