Publications
A Governance and Risk Inventory for a Changing Arctic
Many government officials, military leaders, and political observers have proclaimed the rise of a new, post-Cold War global great power competition between the United States, Russia, and China with myriad implications. Using this new reality as the backdrop for the Arctic Security Roundtable at the Munich Security Conference 2020, roundtable participants are asked to explore, discuss, and debate this issue in the context of, and implications for the new globalized Arctic. This paper – a primer of Arctic trends, risks, and institutions – provides a useful starting point for the discussion. Discussing Arctic security in high-level forums is important. One might ask why we should take the time to discuss the Arctic if we are not fighting a war there. The answer is this: there is a new ocean opening up due to global climate change. There is a promising track record of governance cooperation in the region that serves as a basis for pursuing sustainable management of and peace in this new ocean. The point of dialogue – with an emphasis on cooperation, joint governance and outlining risks and potential tipping points – is to make sure that we do not add the Arctic to the already far-too-long list of global hot spots. The Arctic Security Roundtable at the Munich Security Conference 2020 provides one such confidential forum for proactive and constructive debate on Arctic security issues.
Irans moderne historie
Irans moderne historie er en høyaktuell bok om hvordan Iran, slik vi kjenner det i dag, har blitt til, utgitt førti år etter at 2500 år med persisk monarki ble erstattet av en islamsk republikk.
Doing Less With More? The Difficult ‘Return’ of Western Troop Contributing Countries to United Nations Peacekeeping
Among others, the deployment of the UN stabilization mission to Mali (MINUSMA) in 2013 has been characterized by a number of researchers as a ‘return’ of Western troop contributors to United Nations (UN) peacekeeping in Africa. The aim of this report is to look at the reality of that ‘return,’ and whether it has enhanced the effectiveness of UN peacekeeping overall and of the UN mission in Mali in particular. In policy and academic circles, the return has been hailed as an opportunity for Western member states to contribute niche capabilities such as ISRs including surveillance drones, military transport and attack helicopters, special forces, and to share experiences and practices developed over a long period of counterinsurgency and counterterrorism warfare in e.g. Afghanistan and Iraq. In Mali, the UN mission is mired in a situation where these experiences were considered as relevant, all the more so as some considered that new UN peacekeeping missions could be deployed to Libya, Somalia, Syria, or in Yemen, thereby making Mali a key testing ground for the future from this perspective. However, while Western countries may indeed have lessons to share, the report argues that so far their contribution to MINUSMA has been a very mixed blessing. The report explores these challenges and impact of them on the effectiveness of UN peacekeeping, defined as the ability to sustain peace over time.
Russia and Europe in memory wars
Russia and Europe are in a state of memory war. How did this come about? Is there a way out of this situation? In order to answer these questions, this report enquires into the dynamics of memory politics in Europe, and then takes a closer look at Russian memory politics.
The WTO Reference Paper meets EU common regulatory policy in CETA
International trade and investment in telecommunications are governed by the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) and its Annex and Reference Paper (RP) on telecommunications. This paper discusses whether the 25-year old WTO framework is still fit for purpose. It makes two contributions to the literature. First, it offers a systematic comparison between the provisions in the RP, the EU-Canada Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) and EU common regulatory framework. GATS builds on an outdated classification of telecommunications which is repeated in the CETA. The RP obliges countries to regulate interconnection, which is also largely repeated in CETA, although regulatory forbearance is permitted. CETA does not offer new market access in telecommunications to either party. Second, the paper investigates empirically whether binding regulation in trade agreements strengthen market openness, measured by imports of telecommunications services, and finds that it does not. The paper concludes that trade agreements may not be suitable for international cooperation on telecommunications regulation. Trade agreements run the risk of making regulation hostage to unrelated trade policy issues while adopting the RP runs a risk of legal obligations to over-regulate telecommunications.
Can trade preferences stimulate sectoral development? The case of Namibian and Botswanan beef exports to Norway
• While market access quotas have generated high levels of rents for traders and exporters in Namibia, Botswana, Norway, and offshore entities in the UK, their developmental benefits are diffuse, unclear, and difficult to unpack; • The consolidation of trade between small supply (Namibia, Botswana) and demand markets (Norway) provides some unique advantages for trading parties, given the former’s efficiency and scale disadvantages in international trade, and the latter’s desire to actively manage its food imports; • However, such a strategy is not necessarily replicable or scalable, as it entails both high entry costs for access and high risks from the over-reliance on a limited number of markets and the specter of animal disease incursions.
Assessing the Effectiveness of the United Nations Mission in Mali
Until 2016 MINUSMA managed to strengthen stability in northern Mali, decreasing the number of civilians killed in the conflict, and allowing large numbers of displaced persons to return home. MINUSMA also assisted the peace process, culminating in the 2015 Algiers Agreement. Many of these achievements are still standing. However, since 2016 MINUSMA’s effectiveness in terms of stabilisation and the protection of civilians has decreased. In the North, the signatory parties have been making slow progress in the implementation of the Algiers Agreement and the 2018 Pact for Peace. In addition, central Mali has destabilised significantly, as Jihadist activities have stoked a vicious cycle of inter-communal violence that has reached unprecedented levels. MINUSMA has only been mandated to help the Malian government address the situation since June 2018. As one of the largest multidimensional peacekeeping operations – currently including nearly 13,000 soldiers and 1,800 police officers from 57 contributing countries, and almost 750 civilians – MINUSMA has been provided with significant resources and an extraordinarily ambitious mandate. However, the Mission finds itself at a crossroads. It needs time to succeed, but this is valuable time Mali does not have. Civilians have come under increasing attack, and the US, in particular, is losing interest in supporting a costly UN peace operation that is not able to deliver quick results. This report considers the degree to which there is an alignment between the mission’s resources and its mandate. It also makes an assessment of the options available to the Mission to increase its effectiveness in the face of extremely challenging circumstances.
Russia in world trade: Between globalism and regionalism
The article examines Russia’s participation in world trade and trade policy, using trade data for 1996–2017 and simulations of a numerical world trade model where Russia is divided into domestic regions. Since the mid-1990s, Russia’s foreign trade has grown much faster than the world average. This was accompanied by rapid deterioration in the trade balance for manufacturing, and fast redirection of imports, with more from China and relatively less from others, especially Eastern Europe. Only 1/8 of Russia’s foreign trade in 2017 was with Eastern Europe. This is why Russia can gain more from trade integration with the world beyond Eastern Europe, according to the model simulation analysis. For Russian domestic regions, multilateral liberalization among all countries has a similar effect across all of them, with a welfare gain due to lower import prices. For the commodity-exporting regions of Russia, preferential free trade agreements (FTAs) have a similar impact. For the more industrialized Russian regions, on the other hand, FTAs lead to manufacturing growth, rising wages and higher prices, and a larger welfare gain. According to the model simulations, trade integration promotes industrial diversification, with manufacturing growth also in some commodity regions. The results indicate that external liberalization is particularly important for the central parts of Russia; with Volga and West Siberia generally obtaining the strongest manufacturing boost from trade integration.
Kapitalisme i øst og vest: Vivek Chibber, Subaltern Studies og universalismens nødvendiget
The article discusses the Indian debate about universalism, eurocentrism and post colonialism, based on Vivek Chibber´s critique of Subaltern Studies in his book Postcolonialism and the Specter of Capital. It argues that on most points, Chibber´s critique is valid, and endorses his defence of a conditional universalism. At the same time, some aspects of his own approach are criticised, in particular his defence of rational choice theory.
Introduction
The special issue discusses journalism and the challenge of democracy in transitional countries in Africa. We present in-depth treatments of the role of journalism in Zimbabwe and South Africa’s break with colonialism, Somalia’s breakdown after the fall of Siad Barré in the early 1990s and the recent uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt. Political transitions open a time window during which the media system is in flux and actors try to influence it per their interests. What role does journalism play in such processes, and how do they in turn affect journalists?