Publications
Sivil-militær splittelse og amerikansk sikkerhetspolitikk
Opp gjennom 1990-årene utviklet det seg en betydelig avstand mellom de militære og viktige deler av USAs politiske elite, noe som hadde merkbare konsekvenser for den sikkerhetspolitiske beslutningsprosessen. Særlig tydelig kom dette til syne i spørsmål om internasjonale militære engasjement, men også viktige militære omstillingsplaner kjørte seg fast i beslutningsprosessen. I dette notatet foretas det en kartlegging av hva det såkalte «civil-military gap» består i. Deretter gis det en vurdering av årsakene til denne utviklingen med sikte på for å finne ut om vi her har å gjøre med et vedvarende problem i amerikansk forsvars- og sikkerhetspolitikk, eller om dette kun er av situasjonsavhengig art. Avslutningsvis analyseres mulige konsekvenser for amerikansk sikkerhetspolitikk. Notatets hovedkonklusjon er at den sivil-militære kløft trolig er av varig karakter, men at mulige langtidseffekter av 11. september kan endre situasjonen
Kan valg av eksportmarked forklares med teorien om investeringer under usikkerhet? En økonomisk studie av atferden til norske fiskeeksportører
I denne artikkelen gjøres det rede for hvordan nye teorier for investeringer under usikkerhet kan anvendes til å forklare bedrifters eksportbeslutninger. Det gis en empirisk analyse basert på eksportadferden til norske fiskeeksportører. Valg av eksportdestinasjon er søkt forklart ved ulike landspesifikke egenskaper, samt opplysningen om hvorvidt bedriften har eksporterfaring til landet. Hvis valg av eksportdestinasjon medfører ugjenkallelige investeringer, vil teorien for investeringer under usikkerhet predikere at høy valutakurs-usikkerhet reduserer sannsynligheten for å etablere seg i et marked. Jeg finner at inneværende års valutakurs-usikkerhet gir signifikant effekt på sannsynligheten for å være i et marked. Derimot finner jeg ingen signifikant effekt av denne variabelen for valg av eksportland for førstegangsetablerere. Alternative forklaringsvariable med signifikant effekt er korrupsjonsindeksen CPI, velstandsnivå, geografisk avstand og markedets størrelse. Tilstedeværelsen av andre norske eksportbedrifter påvirket eksportbeslutningen positivt, noe som tyder på eksistens av positive eksternaliteter i eksportaktiviteten. Persistens i eksportstatus gir tentativ støtte til eksistensen av ugjenkallelige kostnader.
Geography and growth - some empirical evidence
Income in the world does not distribute randomly in space. There are geographic clusters of rich and poor countries. Also growth rates tend to be spatially clustered. Spatial regression analyses indicate that geographical clustering may be an inherent ingredient in growth mechanisms: Growth in one country stimulates growth in surrounding countries. A simple exogenous growth model with technology diffusion through trade in capital goods can account for some, but not all of these empirical patterns of growth and income distribution.
French, UK, and US Policies to Support Peacekeeping in Africa: Current Status and Future Prospects
In May 1997, France, the United Kingdom, and the United States announced their joint “P-3 Initiative”, to harmonize their peacekeeping capacity-building programs in Africa and foster an open dialogue between donors and recipients. The capacity-building programs of France, the UK and the US have since undergone numerous transformations. The centerpiece of French policy, the Renforcement des capacités Africaines de maintien de la paix (RECAMP) has had comparatively few changes to its basic structure, but has been scaled down. The UK African Peacekeeping Training Support Programme has given way to a much larger and more ambitious initiative. The US African Crisis Response Initiative (ACRI) has evolved significantly and will undergo a more fundamental change in 2002, including shedding its name. Moreover, Washington initiated a new capacity-building policy in 2001, which dwarfed ACRI in terms of resources and introduced the provision of lethal equipment. In November 2001, the “P-3” met in London to assess their programs. They could take satisfaction that progress had been made on a number of levels. Much more importantly, however, the three partners have created little in the way of synergy. A question that cuts to the core of the capacitybuilding programs is: Does the training or equipment offered make African recipients any more willing or able to undertake peacekeeping on their continent? The answer is far from clear. As for the enhanced capacity, much of what is being offered is of questionable value. To some extent, France, the UK, and the US have acknowledged some of their own programs’ limitations, and they are attempting to redress these weaknesses. Government officials are now much more receptive to criticism and suggestions for change.
Multinationals Searching for R&D Spillovers : A Survey of the Literature
This paper surveys the literature on R&D and technology spillovers as a motive for FDI. During the last years, a growing body of theoretical studies has generated formal arguments supporting the economic rationale for such behaviour. Yet, theoretical contributions are clustered within a few schools and a wider approach is necessary in order to understand the mechanisms that relate R&D spillovers to FDI. The empirical literature is more numerous, but provides ambiguous conclusions with respect to the strength of this motive. Micro studies provide less supportive results as compared to studies based on more aggregate data. Studies based on patent information are generally supportive to the existence of this motive.
International R&D Spillovers and the Absorptive Capacity of Multinationals
This paper studies R&D spillovers as a motive for firms to go multinational. The establishment of a foreign subsidiary may increase a firm’s ability to learn from foreign R&D activity since R&D spillovers between firms are moderated by geographical distance. As opposed to earlier studies on this subject, we also model the concept of absorptive capacity where spillovers are endogenised as a function of the firms’ own R&D investments. We employ a three-stage Cournot duopoly model to identify under what conditions a firm chooses to service a foreign market through exports or localised production (going multinational). With exogenous R&D investments, the absorptive capacity effect contributes to increase the gains from going multinational when the firm is a technology leader in terms of R&D. If R&D investments are endogenous, only medium-sized absorptive capacity effects will result in firms going multinational. Also, higher spillover rates do not necessarily drive down R&D and profits for the multinational firm. This stands in contrast to models that ignore the aspect of absorptive capacity.
Exit Neo-Nazism : Reducing Recruitment and Promoting Disengagement from Racist Groups
Young persons belonging to various types of right-wing extremist groups commit a large proportion of xenophobic and racist attacks. Measures against racial violence should therefore include interventions that reduce and (preferably) dissolve such groups. To be effective, this requires knowledge about how such groups emerge and operate, and in particular, on processes of recruitment and disengagement. Through early intervention, it is possible to reduce recruitment of new members to racist youth groups, and also facilitate (early) disengagement for those who are already involved with the group. Although most members of racist groups leave sooner or later, it is important that they quit sooner rather than later – before they hurt others, and before they have internalised a racist world-view and a violent pattern of behaviour. The article describes reasons for why some young people join racist groups; factors and circumstances that cause most of them eventually to consider disengaging; and what prevents some of them from doing so. The Exit project was started to develop methods and strategies for reducing recruitment and facilitating disengagement from racist groups. Beginning in Norway in 1996–97, the Exit approach was subsequently adopted and developed further in Sweden, with strong results. From there, the Exit approach spread on to Germany, where there are now a number of private and staterun initiatives to promote disengagement from neo-Nazi groups. There are also Exit initiatives in several other European countries.
Political Priorities and Economic Interests in Russian-Latvian Relations
The paper focuses on interaction of political and economic aspects in Russian-Latvian relations. During the most of the 1990´s, the relationship was dominated by the «conflict manifestation,» which could be witnessed during the protracted Russian troop withdrawal and mutually irreconcilable positioning over NATO expansion and status of Russian-speaking population. However, in the context of EU enlargement and «economisation» of Russian foreign policy, economic factors may play an increasingly important role in Russian-Latvian relations. It is possible to discover a complex web of links and economic interdependence between economic actors in both Russia and Latvia. This especially refers to transit as Latvian ports remain among the major routes of Russian exports, primarily oil, to Western Europe. Yet, certain interests of particular economic groups in Russia as well as economic and political priorities of Russian government generally, in the region and domestically will have influence, not necessarily favourable, on further development of this economic interdependence.
Meet Me Halfway but don't Rush : Absorptive capacity and strategic R&D investment revisited
In this paper, we analyse how R&D investment decisions are affected by R&D spillovers between firms, taking into consideration that more R&D investment improves the ability to learn from competing firms - the so-called absorptive capacity effect of R&D. The model in this paper is an extension of d’Aspremont and Jacquemin (1988), where they show that exogenous R&D spillovers reduce the incentive to invest in R&D when firms compete in a Cournot duopoly. Our model treats R&D spillovers as endogenous, being a function of absorptive capacity effects. Contrary to earlier studies, we show that absorptive capacity effects do not necessarily drive up the incentive to invest in R&D. This only happens when the market size is small or the absorptive capacity effect is weak. Otherwise firms will actually chose to cut down on R&D. Furthermore, absorptive capacity effects also increase the critical rate of spillovers that determines whether participating in research joint ventures leads to lower or higher R&D investment. Finally, we show that strong learning effects of own R&D are not necessarily good for welfare. Moreover, if the market size is large, welfare will be at its highest when the learning effect is small.