Publications
Fragile States as the New Development Agenda?
As Europe struggles with the repercussions of violent conflict in the Middle East, North Africa and the Sahel, including high numbers of refugees attempting to enter Europe, the issue of fragile states is pushed to the top of European policy agendas. There are calls to do more – military interventions in different forms, but also humanitarian and development assistance. European countries seek to refocus their development aid towards stabilisation efforts in fragile states that send refugees their way. This trend is unfolding all over Europe, including the Nordic countries. What then could be the basis for a new development agenda for fragile states. Senior Research Fellow Morten Bøås adresses this in new debate article.
Social Justice through Inclusion: The Consequences of Electoral Quotas in India
Across the world, governments design and implement policies with the explicit goal of promoting social justice. But can such institutions change entrenched social norms? And what effects should we expect from differently designed policies? Francesca R. Jensenius' Social Justice through Inclusion is an empirically rich study of one of the most extensive electoral quota systems in the world: the reserved seats for the Scheduled Castes (SCs, the former "untouchables") in India's legislative assemblies. Combining evidence from quantitative datasets from the period 1969-2012, archival work, and in-depth interviews with politicians, civil servants, and voters across India, the book explores the long-term effects of electoral quotas for the political elite and the general population. It shows that the quota system has played an important role in reducing caste-based discrimination, particularly at the elite level. Interestingly, this is not because the system has led to more group representation - SC politicians working specifically for SC interests - but because it has made possible the creation and empowerment of a new SC elite who have gradually become integrated into mainstream politics. This is a study of India, but the findings and discussions have broader implications. Policies such as quotas are usually supported with arguments about various assumed positive long-term consequences. The nuanced discussions in this book shed light on how electoral quotas for SCs have shaped the incentives for politicians, parties, and voters, and indicate the trade-offs inherent in how such policies of group inclusion are designed.
Myanmars Attractiveness for Investment in the Energy Sector: A Comparative International Perspective
This report examines the strengths and weaknesses of Myanmar’s business climate in the petroleum and renewable energy sectors: how it compares with other countries, especially in ASEAN; what matters to foreign investors; and how this situation can be improved. Not resting on one’s (new) laurels: The recent international interest in Myanmar may prove counterproductive for the country’s investment climate, if this upsurge in interest induces the government to slow down in its reform efforts. When the novelty of Myanmar wears off, that may become a problem. Indeed, possible signs of such a slowdown can be observed already. According to official data, FDI in Myanmar decreased significantly in the first four months of 2016 compared to the same period in 2015. Investors were increasingly cautious and worried about the slow pace of reform, delays in establishing a panel to approve new investment projects and the lack of clarity on the country’s new economic development strategy (DVB, 2016). This highlights the importance of working constantly to improve the investment climate and staying in close contact with investors, keeping them informed about developments. Challenges common to the petroleum and renewables sectors: Lack of data and information for market entry; fragmented institutional and regulatory framework; low levels of electricity access and digitalization; low international oil prices. Challenges in the petroleum sector: Limited supply-industry infrastructure and lack of local engineers; MOGE petroleum sector monopolization and conflicts of interest; limited geological data; complicated taxation; weak government–business communication; challenges in finding local partners; time-consuming licensing procedures; paper-based communication and lack of e-government; production-sharing agreements biased towards participation of large oil companies, excluding smaller ones; frequent changes in legislation; closed downstream market. Challenges in the renewable energy sector: No national target or legislation on renewable energy; no dedicated public agency regulating the sector; lack of business associations; subsidies for grid electricity generated from fossil fuels disadvantage off-grid renewables; access to suitable land; complex mountainous terrain and protected areas as well as political instability in these areas; underdeveloped grid system for large-scale production; lack of data on the renewable-energy resource potential; limited infrastructure for technical support and maintenance; high cost of installing solar panels and wind turbines; disintegrated biofuel production and supply markets; lack of local specialists; no taxation system for renewables; security risks in conflict-prone Kachin, Rakhine and Shan states. Opportunities in the petroleum and renewable energy sectors: Government commitment to reform; advantageous location as part of the Greater Mekong Subregion and ASEAN, close to the Chinese and Indian markets; significant resource base, especially natural gas, hydropower and bioenergy; rapidly rising energy demand in Myanmar and neighbouring countries; high demand for investment in refineries, oil terminals, oil barges and petrol stations; opportunities in retail business; new petroleum and renewable energy laws are underway; abundant semi-skilled labour, and low cost of unskilled labour; low levels of corruption and criminality. Initially, companies may perceive the business climate as unpredictable, but, having entered the market, and having learned and adapted to local conditions, companies experience greater predictability. Opportunities in the petroleum sector: Relatively transparent tender system; equal treatment of investors; government experience and capacity; market maturity. Myanmar’s strategic location, with rapidly rising energy demand among hundreds of millions of people in the neighbouring countries and low transportation costs (especially for gas delivery to China, India and Thailand), represents an opportunity to foreign investors. Opportunities in the renewable energy sector: Latecomer advantage; low level of electrification increases cost advantage of off-grid electrification; support from international donors; strong civil society actors are promoting renewable energy development.
The Geopolitics of Renewable Energy
For a century, the geopolitics of energy has been synonymous with the geopolitics of oil and gas. However, geopolitics and the global energy economy are both changing. The international order predominant since the end of World War II faces mounting challenges. At the same time, renewable energy is growing rapidly. Nevertheless, the geopolitics of renewable energy has received relatively little attention, especially when considering the far-reaching consequences of a global shift to renewable energy. The paper starts with a discussion of seven renewable energy scenarios for the coming decades: the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2016, the EIA’s International Energy Outlook 2016, IRENA’s REmap 2016, Bloomberg’s New Energy Outlook 2016, BP’s Energy Outlook 2016, Exxon-Mobil’s Outlook for Energy 2016 and the joint IEA and IRENA G20 de-carbonization scenario. The paper then discusses seven mechanisms through which renewables could shape geopolitics: Critical materials supply chains, technology and finance, new resource curse, electric grids, reduced oil and gas demand, avoided climate change, and sustainable energy access.
Swedish–Norwegian Defence Cooperation: New opportunities?
Swedish–Norwegian defence cooperation has encountered rough seas in recent years, but now seems to have entered smoother waters. This is due to both push and pull factors: push because the new security environment has increased the likelihood of a crisis in the Nordic/Baltic region, which would probably involve all Nordic states, irrespective of NATO or EU membership. Pull because of the renewed US engagement in the region, because of the EU incentives for industrial defence cooperation – and because geographical proximity in itself creates possibilities for shared solutions and practices. This Policy Brief focuses on Swedish–Norwegian defence cooperation in the broader Nordic/Baltic context. We begin by reviewing recent developments in Swedish defence policies, and the implications of previous failed joint Swedish–Norwegian projects. We then turn to opportunities that may emerge as a result of the mentioned push and pull factors. These opportunities are to be considered as ideas; they have not been thoroughly discussed and assessed, but may serve as starting points for follow-on debates and explorations.
The UK withdrawal from the EU - Legal implications for Norway as party to the EEA Agreement
By leaving the European Union, the United Kingdom withdraws from all EU international commitments. The disentanglement of the UK from the EU, Brexit, will thus affect third states and organisations with which the EU entertains relations. Norway will be no exception, particularly in view of the many agreements the country has concluded with the EU, covering a wide range of areas and entailing a high degree of integration with the Union’s legal order, the EEA being the most important of these agreements.
Studiet av Japans sikkerhetspolitikk: 3. generasjons forklaring på stabilitet og endring etter den kalde krigen
Consequences of integrating foreign policy and development policy
There has in recent years been a clear trend among OECD countries to integrate their development and foreign policies. This paper has two parts. Part one reviews how some key donor countries have approached such integration, and examines what we know about their effects on the overall coherence and effectiveness of development and foreign policy. The working paper finds that there is a clear knowledge gap on the consequences of integrating development and foreign policy.
The G20: Inclusivity and Legitimacy - a Nordic Perspective
At a time of geopolitical uncertainty and strong interdependencies there is a need for more effective global governance. The G20 provides a positive force but there are well founded concerns with regard to its legitimacy and the risk of securing “club goods” at the expense of international institutions such as the UN. In particular, many countries from the southern hemisphere feel excluded from this elite group and continue to expresses their worries but they are not the only ones. The Nordic countries, among them Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Iceland, constitute an economically powerful group of states that has been denied any membership so far. So what is the Nordic perspective towards the G20, and how can the Nordics contribute best to this forum of the largest industrial and emerging states?