Publications
Ethiopia: A Political Economy Analysis
This report provides an overview and analysis of some key issues pertaining to the political economy of Ethiopia in a historical perspective. The continuous rule of the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) since 1991 has advanced a revolutionary democracy founded on the idea that the EPRDF itself should be the vanguard party both representing and leading the people. This form of central dirigisme has produced a developmental state with authoritarian features and opaque boundaries between the party and the state system. The strong and assertive party, having its clear vision of the developmental objectives and means, has produced a self-determined state apparatus that seldom yields to internal or international pressure. It has also produced impressive economic results over the last decade and a half, especially in the central and urban areas, and now aspires to become a middle-income country by 2025. Against this economic performance, there are critical concerns regarding democracy, human rights, uneven distribution and growing inequalities. The political space has gradually narrowed since the contentious 2005-elections, and there are currently no opposition parties with parliamentary representation. The invocation of a ten months state of emergency following the popular anti-government protests in 2015 and 2016, is just one expression of how human rights are being truncated, the lack of an open political space and the regime’s authoritarian features. Despite this, international actors maintain their relations to Ethiopia and continue to provide development assistance. This is partly due to the government’s performance in other domestic areas, but also a recognition of Ethiopia’s important regional role in providing stability in the Horn of Africa. The government has known to capitalize on the international actors’ need for a stable partner in the region, which has provided leeway for both its domestic and international affairs. It is thus unlikely that Ethiopia would be challenged by any other regional state or combination of states. Nor is it expected that any of its international partners would challenge Ethiopia, for instance by putting conditions pertaining to domestic political and human rights issues before the concern for regional stability. Any challenges to the regime and political stability are more likely to emerge from within – whether in the form of further popular political unrest, or disagreements within the EPRDF government or its coalition parties.
Towards a Comprehensive Results-based Reporting and Performance Assessment Framework for UN Peacekeeping Operations
This report considers the tools and processes that DPKO and DFS currently use to assess the performance of senior personnel, individual units and peacekeeping operations, and proposes a methodology for reorganizing these tools into a single overarching comprehensive planning, reporting and performance assessment framework. We argue for a shared analytical framework for performance assessment, across the UN system, and show how the terminology used by the United Nations Evaluation Group can be applied in peacekeeping operations. Currently, performance assessments of peacekeeping operations are undertaken as a number of independent processes which serve different constituencies and a range of purposes. This report identified eight different tools, each performing its own data collection and analysis. They are concentrated in two distinct areas across the spectrum. On the one hand a group of tools focus on outputs (measurable actions undertaken), and on the other a few tools focus on strategic analysis of the context – where the link to the peacekeeping operation is very tenuous. As a result, the information generated by the current tools are not able to be aggregated into a meaningful overall assessment of the performance of a given peacekeeping operation. The report endorses the principle of establishing a single comprehensive planning, reporting and performance assessment framework (the Framework) which brings the existing policies and tools together into more efficient interaction. In addition to what exists already, we recommend developing a performance assessment design that supports the Framework and the RBB with information on the performance of the mission against its plans, objectives and mandate. 1. We recommend the establishment of a single comprehensive planning, reporting and performance assessment Framework that incorporates the current planning and evaluation policies and tools, including the RBB, and that adds a new performance assessment tool and a predictable planning and decision-making cycle. 2. The Framework needs to envision a strategic planning horizon that is linked to the timeframes necessary to achieve the mission’s mandate, and should not be limited to the period for which the mission is currently authorized. 3. The Framework should contain a performance assessment tool should consisting of three elements, namely a set of indicators for each performance area, a process for analyzing and reporting on performance, and a platform where all the information gathered is stored for current and future use. 4. For each mission, the Framework should be grounded in a context analysis that identifies the key drivers that shape developments in the conflict-system that the peacekeeping operation is intended to influence. It should include in particular the identification of key drivers of change, which are the events or trends which will trigger significant change. The context analysis identifies, and analyse the critical conditions that influence these drivers, and the mission’s effects-based plans should be aimed at influencing these critical conditions, so as to have an impact on the key drivers. 5. Central to a performance assessment is defining the manner in which outputs are intended to influence the critical conditions around key drivers and actors. Clearly articulating the intended influence (the so-called ‘theory of change’ in evaluation terminology) helps to anticipate what impact a peacekeeping operation can be expected to have on a conflict-system, as the triggers, or drivers of the process of change have been clearly identified as part of the context analysis. Operationalizing the Framework requires three streams of elaboration, aimed at different functions within the organisation. It should be noted that it does not add significant new tasks, but aims to bring together what exists into three categories of capacities: • Assessment capacity, existing staff who will be trained in performance assessment; • Planners and managers, who would be given concrete points of reference on which to base decisions (resources, outputs, critical conditions, assumptions under review); and • A digital platform which can capture, through big data solutions, the information in the existing systems, and present it into a single dash-board interface.
Israel og moralsk balansegang
Kritikere av lsraels overgrep mot palestinere blir ofte urettmessig beskyldt for antisemittisme. Samtidig er antisemittisme et økende problem i deler av Europa og USA.
Chinese belts and roads stir mixed reactions in Europe
European governments generally welcome Chinese contributions to infrastructure and development. Many actors inside and outside the EU hope to see countries and markets along the proposed belts and roads prosper. They support China’s efforts to strengthen connectivity and trade. But most, if not all, keep asking China to clarify its plans and ambitions.
Sustaining Peace: Can a new approach change the UN?
When António Guterres started as UN Secretary General, he emphasised that conflict prevention had to be a top priority of the United Nations. This is why the United Nations are currently working on specifying the new ‘sustaining peace’ approach, passed by concurrent resolutions of the UN General Assembly and the Security Council in 2016. What are the challenges with their implementation? How does the current geopolitical situation impact the concept? And does it have the potential to make the UN fit for the 21 century?
Sikkerhetspolitiske rammebetingelser i bevegelse
(Available in Norwegian only): Verden preges av mer kompleksitet og usikkerhet enn på flere tiår. Kanskje har vi har allerede vent oss til hyppigere omveltninger. Mennesker er tilpasningsdyktige. Kanskje har vi ikke fullt ut tatt inn rekkevidden – også for Norge – av skredet av hendelser og endring i Europa og internasjonal sikkerhetspolitikk siden 2014. Norges sikkerhetspolitiske omland har blitt mer polarisert og mer fragmentert. Samtidig er noe dypere synliggjort; grunnpilarene for norsk sikkerhets og forsvarspolitikk er i bevegelse. Retningen er også mindre medstrøms for småstaten Norge enn nordmenn har vent seg til i nærmest hele perioden etter den andre verdenskrig. Denne analysen belyser utviklingstrekk som påvirker rammebetingelsene for Norges sikkerhet. Noen trekk skiller seg ut: Geopolitisk maktforskyvning utfordrer den institusjonaliserte verdensorden, og USA har vist tegn til å en mer avventende holdning til rollen som garantist og ledende stormakt. Samtidig kan et mer komplekst trusselbilde tvinge NATO til endringer som utfordrer samholdet i alliansen. Sett fra et norsk ståsted: Hvilke dilemmaer, utfordringer og nøkkelspørsmål vil kunne møte norske beslutningstakere i årene som kommer?
Diplomacy as Global Governance
The chapter details how diplomacy - the case study being Norwegian diplomacy - is no longer solely about representing the state vis a vis other states. It has evolved to also include governing specific issues. This governance aspect of diplomacy becomes even more interesting as an expression of the transformation of diplomacy when we consider that what is being governed is not directly linked to the security of the state, but to ideals and principles that attain meaning as first and foremost "international" issues or goals. We find evidence of a gradual shift of diplomacy towards governing of international issues, and reflect on what this means for the presentation of the state vis a vis other states.
Expertise and Practice: The Evolving Relationship between Study and Practice of Security
The chapter details the evolving relationship between the study and the practice of international security. This relationship is seen as one of differentiation: international security has proliferated into several sub-fields - cyber security, conflict management etc - with increased specialisation of techniques of governing. This specialisation is matched by a differentiation in academic research and expertise, so that there is by now a broad array of different types of security expertise. This differentiation into sub-fields reflects a broader trend also found in other issue-areas.
Building tax systems in fragile states. Challenges, achievements and policy recommendations
This report systematises and analyses existing knowledge on taxation in fragile states. Efforts to support domestic revenue mobilisation in conflict situations require a different approach and other means than in the more stable developing countries. On that basis, the study discusses possible entry points for Norwegian support to domestic revenue mobilisation in ways that may contribute to strengthen state-building and improve government legitimacy. Complexity, limited experience and security concerns suggest that one should be cautious to adopt bilateral technical assistance programmes of the kind implemented in other developing countries. Instead, the study argues in favour of engagement via multilateral institutions, including multi-donor trust funds and other forms of pooled resources. The report recommends nine entry points for Norwegian support to taxation in fragile states: 1. Do no harm 2. Safeguard donor coordination, but ensure a certain humility 3. Support customs administration 4. Capacitate management and taxation of natural resources 5. Support the United Nations Tax Committee 6. Improve taxpayer-tax administration relations 7. Remember the sub-national tax system 8. Support civil based organisations 9. Develop research capacity
Between classical and critical geopolitics in a changing Arctic
Puzzled by how geographical changes in the Arctic might cause changes in state behavior the authors of this article have been inspired to return to the roots of geopolitical reasoning. By combining insights from the intellectual roots of the geopolitical tradition with empirical data on geographical changes as well as policy changes in the Arctic today, we investigate the degree to which geopolitics, in the sense of geography influencing politics, is still a useful approach in the discipline of International Relations (IR). In limiting our primary focus to the state level, and investigating the period since the turn of the millennium, this article seeks to develop new knowledge concerning if, how, and to what extent geography matters in international politics. Our empirical investigation indicates that geographical changes in the Arctic have indeed had an effect on power relations among several states. Overall, this article shows that geography is an important factor in IR in the sense of enabling or empowering state actors. However, while it appears that physical geography is a possible factor in the cases analyzed to explain changes in identified power potentials, it does not always account for these changes on its own. Economic, political, legal, and historical factors also play a role in the observed power shifts.