Publications
Digitalisering og internasjonal politikk
Hvilke sikkerhetspolitiske valg og dilemmaer representerer den nye digitale hverdagen for Norge og resten av verden? Kampen for å påvirke hvordan internett skal fungere er godt i gang. Utbyggingen av 5G-nettverk har blitt en global dragkamp der land presser hverandre til å velge bort bestemte leverandører, og private selskaper i den digitale sektoren får stadig større økonomisk og politisk makt. Internasjonale aktører som FN og NATO strever med å finne sin plass i det nye landskapet. I FN pågår det en intens strid om hvilke internasjonale normer som skal gjelde i det digitale rom, og NATO har definert cyber som et eget domene på linje med land, luft og sjø. Alt dette tilsier at digitalisering vil være med på å definere internasjonale konfliktlinjer i lang tid fremover. Men hvordan? I denne boken samler Håkon Bergsjø og Karsten Friis ulike perspektiver fra ledende fagmiljøer på hvordan digitalisering påvirker internasjonal politikk og konfliktdynamikk.
Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: South Sudan
Unpredictable annual variations in extreme weather events, like flooding and droughts, affect agriculture-dependent communities and influence pastoralist mobility patterns and routes. Such changes may intensify the risk of tensions between herders and farmers, often in connection with land, grazing, water and communal affairs. Transhumance, including cross-border migration from Sudan through the Greater Upper Nile in particular, exacerbates the spread of veterinary diseases and fuels environmental degradation and competition over scarce resources. Women and girls continue to bear the brunt of the effects of climate change; female-headed households are especially vulnerable. Climate-related livestock losses compounded by pre-existing rivalries increase the risk of cattle raiding, which can trigger retaliation, communal conflict, displacement, deepening intercommunal rivalry and the formation of armed groups.
Responsen på Ukraina-krigen viser en ny fellesnordisk linje i sikkerhetspolitikken
Op. Ed. about responses to the war in Ukraine, and changes in longstanding Nordic security and defence policies.
Kina balanserer i bomberegnet
Invasjonen av Ukraina stiller Kina overfor dilemmaer de hadde håpet å unngå. Det kan føre til at Kina demper sin viktige økonomiske støtte til Putin.
Not so unique after all? Urgency and norms in EU foreign and security policy
The EU Global Strategy puts ‘principled pragmatism’ at the core of EU foreign and security policy. This has also been promoted as away of closing the gap between talk and action. Still, the concept has been widely criticized and interpreted as away of making the Union’s ‘organized hypocrisy’ less glaring. By exploring key EU foreign and security policy strategies and policies implemented over the past decade, this article suggests that a certain pattern for when the EU acts normatively and when it acts strategically can be identified. While the overall ambition is still to promote a more normative policy, also when it comes at a considerable economic cost, there is a limit to how it is willing to go. Evidence suggests that when faced with a situation perceived as urgent, the EU becomes more prone to implement policies that are at odds with its own principles.
The Migration Crisis: An Introduction
In 2015, the EU and its member states struggled to coordinate, communicate, and cooperate on the migration crisis as the chapters in this section show. Schilde and Wallace Goodman point out that while border security contains examples of deeper integration, asylum management policy has followed the scenarios of breaking down and muddling through. All the authors highlight the Dublin convention as particularly ill-devised and thus paving the way for the refugee crisis. Bosilca finds evidence for breaking down in addition to minimal reforms of border security policy that constitute muddling through. Crawford argues that the migration crisis provides evidence both of muddling through and heading forward and is thus more optimistic than either Schilde and Wallace Goodman or Bosilca about the prospects for EU integration in this policy area.
DEBATT: Krigen i Ukraina og hvordan den endrer Europa
Panel discussion about the war in Ukraine and how it affects Europe. Organised by Europabevegelsen.
Russian Certainty of NATO Hostility: Repercussions in the Arctic
How does a security dilemma dynamic between parties deemed not to hold hostile intentions toward each other emerge and escalate? This article investigates Russian official discourse on NATO engagement in Europe post-Crimea (2014), and its impact on security interaction in the Arctic. We also examine how Russia represents NATO intentions and actions in a context seen by Russia as a relation of war. We identify the effect of these changing representations of self and other for the emerging securitization dilemma in relations between Russia and NATO, arguing that they have replaced uncertainty about NATO’s hostile intentions with certainty. Although Russia still articulates the Arctic as a unique cooperative region, there may be little space left for non-conflictual Russian action when encountering NATO in the Arctic. We highlight the agency and importance of evolving political rhetoric in creating a dangerous situation where lethal conflict can occur between parties who do not seek it, and also suggest that adjustments to patterns of official speech could be a tool of mitigation
The Legitimacy Crisis: An Introduction
This section examines how the crisis of democratic legitimacy shapes the prospects for further integration. All the authors find evidence for ‘muddling through’ by the EU in response to its legitimacy crisis. Raube and Costa Reis show how the Commission and European Parliament took incremental steps of starting infringement proceedings against Hungary and Poland in response to breaches in the rule of law by elected populist governments, yet partisanship undermined the EU’s response. Holst and Molander discuss the democratic pitfalls of technocratic decision-making in response to crisis and detail the kinds of reforms needed to enhance accountability and citizen nonexpert participation in policy. De Wilde examines the Eurobarometer polls after recent crises afflicting the EU and considers the long- and short-term effects of crisis on public trust in EU institutions.
Finlandisering og mulig finsk Nato-medlemskap
Radio interview about Finland and Sweden's debate about NATO membership. How is the Ukraine war impacting on security debates in the Nordic states?