Publications
Plug and Play: Multinational Rotation Contributions for UN Peacekeeping Operations
In 2016, Norway spearheaded the provision of multinational rotation contribution (MRC) of a C-130 transport plane, together with Belgium, Denmark, Portugal, and Sweden, lasting from January 2016 to December 2018. According to Hervé Ladsous, then Under Secretary-General (USG) for UN peacekeeping operations, speaking at the UN Peacekeeping Defence Ministerial in London on 8 September 2016, MRCs can be seen as a new and innovative partnership aimed at providing a predictable supply of niche capabilities to UN peace operations. This report studies early lessons from the C-130 MRC and argues that for some key capabilities, MRCs can complement traditional force generation for UN peacekeeping operations. For member states, the ‘plug-and-play’ characteristic can lower the threshold and increase the incentives for contribution; for the UN, they can enable predictable and cost-effective supply of niche capabilities in key areas. However, MRCs are not applicable to all capabilities, and require flexibility and the ability to reform among all concerned parties.
Å kommunisere en konflikt – aktører i RTs dekning av situasjonen i Ukraina i februar–mars 2014
(Norwegian version only): This article analyses the Russian public diplomacy news organization RT’s coverage of the situation in Ukraine in February–March 2014, the period that culminated with the annexation of Crimea. It finds that enemy images were drawn of the West/USA and of Ukrainian radicals, whereas the liberal opposition and in part the new Ukrainian government were subjected to «symbolic annihilation» – that is they were not represented at all, only indirectly in depictions of the enemy image of the other actors. Locating these portrayals in the theoretical literature on «strategic narratives», the author interprets them as attempts at achieving consensus around Russia’s own perspectives on international affairs, which include the promotion of a world order in which the USA is no longer a hegemon and Russia is respected as a great power.
Upholding the NATO cyber pledge Cyber Deterrence and Resilience: Dilemmas in NATO defence and security politics
This Policy Brief clarifies the key concepts of traditional deterrence and explores how these apply to cyber deterrence for the NATO alliance. Firstly a range of problems inherent to cyberspace itself and to the translation of existing deterrence models to this domain are identified. Secondly a range of alternative and complementary approaches to deterrence are proposes that can assist in developing a new framework for conceptualizing NATO Alliance cyber deterrence. A rethinking cyber deterrence as a condition of success or failure is argued for: cyber deterrence must be reframed as an ongoing process, utilizing national and Alliance resources from multiple domains as a means to establish deterrence and resilience. It is argued that traditional models of deterrence, drawn from the nuclear and conventional deterrence thinking of many decades’ standing, are inadequate for addressing the challenge of deterring cyber threats in the 21st century. The dynamism of the environment, the range of threats, the multiplicity of state and non-state actors, and the technical challenges of attribution – all require a reorientation of deterrence posture and practice. This reconceptualization must focus on cyberspace itself in an intensification of attention to its idiosyncrasies, but should also be open to a relaxation of orthodoxy in its incorporation of new outlooks and ideas, some of which may strain the established boundaries of deterrence theory. Full text Policy Brief online version: http://www.nupi.no/en/About-NUPI/Projects-centres-and-programmes/Cyber-Security-Centre/Upholding-the-NATO-cyber-pledge
The Rebalance to Asia Under Trump
Attempts to predict the future shape of President Donald Trump’s defence policy in the Asia-Pacific are a challenge, at best. Nevertheless, Patrick Cullen argues that, in contrast to early assumptions that he would initiate a more isolationist defence policy and break with the previous administration’s Rebalance to Asia policy, Trump is more likely to adopt a hawkish – if unpredictable – enforcement of the policy’s key defence objectives. Gauging whether the Trump administration will bring either change from, or continuity with, the military component of the Rebalance to Asia policy will require keeping an eye on each of the policy’s subcategories.
Radicalization and foreign fighters in the Kosovo context: An analysis of international media coverage of the phenomena
This working paper takes a critical look at the written coverage of issues of jihadi radicalization and foreign fighters from Kosovo, identifying key themes, assumptions, and areas where the press seems to have missed certain points. The paper is based on an extensive survey of written English-language media coverage retrieved online, secondary NGO/grey and academic literature, as well as some 50 original interviews with experts, frontline practitioners, policymakers and donors conducted in Prishtina, Brussels, or via Skype. While not attempting to provide a full picture, the paper identifies points on which the international media coverage seems to have got matters wrong, and areas where the evidence calls for greater nuancing. These include the number of foreign fighters, the reasons for radicalization and why people have travelled to Syria, as well as the government’s response.
Commentary: Neighbors in a changed terrain
The Norwegian Government released a new strategy document for the High North at the end of April 2017. This short opinion piece examines some of the key areas of consistency and change in the international aspects of the strategy.
Political change and historical analogies
This article deals with how scholars, policy analysts and activists, striving to make sense of current political change, have turned to history for analogies and ideas for action. While it is encouraging to see the Trump presidency and other instances of upheaval leading to a strengthened interest in history, in academe and public life more generally, there nevertheless is a need to caution against facile appropriations of the historical record and the use of superficial similarity to legitimize political action. I discuss ways of historicizing the present, through some examples of historical analogies applied to the first months of the Trump presidency and other relatively current instances of change. I start with a discussion of historical analogies and concepts, stressing how they can be understood as both first order and second order constructs. Then I discuss the current usage of historical analogies and concepts as both first order and second order constructs, before I conclude.
Learning from Experience - International Policing
In the Norwegian MFA-funded project ‘Learning from Experience – International Policing’ the researchers examined several aspects of police participation in international deployments in order to extract best practices and lessons learned. The project consisted of four main parts: 1) looking at how Norway and like-minded countries manage knowledge in connection to the recruitment and deployment of police officers in international missions; 2) analysing training experiences for peace operations; 3) gathering, systematizing and analysing experiences and insights of individual Norwegian police officers who had served in international operations (1989–2016); and 4) analysing the Specialized Police Team model that Norway deployed to MINUSTAH to build Haitian police capacity to investigate sexual violence. This Policy Brief sums up the main findings of the project, and offers policy recommendations on the basis of other research.
Iceland’s Relations with its Regional Powers: Alignment with the EU-US sanctions on Russia
The paper examines the Icelandic government’s consideration to withdraw its support for the sanctions against Russia over Ukraine in 2015. The consideration came as a surprise to many since Iceland in the past has habitually aligned itself closely with the United States and the European Union in such matters. The Icelandic fishing industry lobbied hard for the sanctions to be lifted to avoid Russian counter-sanctions on Iceland. After considerable internal debate, the government decided to uphold the sanctions, but settled on a policy of not taking part in EU´s foreign policy declarations about the sanctions. This move is interesting given Iceland’s traditional positioning between two gravitational centres in world politics: the EU and the US. The paper discusses what this case tells us about Icelandic policymakers’ room for maneuvering in the formulation and enactment of its foreign policy, and about Iceland’s foreign policy bonds to the US and the EU.
Stabilisation in the Congo: Opportunities and challenges
Stabilisation is often interpreted as a matter of military interventions in so-called ‘fragile states’, and/or as technical and development solutions to what we argue are political problems. However, an often poorly understood stabilisation strategy is the revised International Security and Stabilisation Support Strategy for the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). This strategy engages communities and authorities at local and national levels in dialogues, in order to identify causes of and develop solutions to conflicts. Stabilisation in the DRC, we argue, becomes a matter of targeting deep-rooted political and economic manipulations in the country’s eastern region. This strategy, if fully endorsed, provides the first coherent and thorough approach to stabilisation in the DRC, an exit strategy for the UN mission (MONUSCO) and an opportunity for learning for other UN operations.