Publications
Kims store gjennombrudd
(Available in Norwegian only): Nord-Korea er farlig nær en amerikansk smertegrense – en troverdig evne til å ramme det amerikanske kontinentet, skriver Sverre Lodgaard på NRK Ytring.
‘Violent Extremism’ in the Lake Chad Basin. Understanding the Drivers of the Boko Haram Insurgency.
Chinese Investments in Norway: A Typical Case Despite Special Circumstances
Chinese investments in Norway have increased, and remain moderate but substantial compared with the situation in Europe overall. The Norwegian case is both typical and somewhat unique. Transactions made in the 2000s coincided with China’s boom in outbound natural resource- and energy-related investments. Subsequent deals have demonstrated an increasing interest in specialized and high-tech companies. There has been diversification among actors, but state-owned enterprises remain the main source. Moreover, the debate surrounding Chinese investments in Norway has been limited and largely positive. What makes Norway a special case is the six-year freeze of bilateral political affairs that followed the Nobel Peace Prize in 2010. Although the suppression of some investor interests and opportunities is to be expected, several major investments were completed during this period despite the dysfunctional political ties. After the normalization of bilateral relations in December of 2016, actors on both sides are signaling increased economic interest and negotiations for a bilateral Free Trade Agreement are back on track.
Kan vi stole på NATO?
(Norwegian only) Etter Russlands annektering av Krim i 2014 har reorienteringen av NATO gått fort. Alliansen har utplassert styrker i Baltikum og Polen, reaksjonsstyrken er revitalisert, forsvarsplanene for Europa er lagt på ny, man tenker nytt rundt logistikk og kommandostruktur og øver mer, og de aller fleste allierte er i ferd med å øke forsvarsbudsjettene sine. På tross av dette er ikke alt rosenrødt. Fundamentet i NATO er solidaritet, et delt trusselbilde og enighet om rett respons. Det hjelper lite med bedre planer og materiell dersom medlemmene ikke er enige om når og hvordan alliansen eventuelt skal bruke militærmakt.
Kazakhstan: Civil Society and Natural Resource Policy in Kazakhstan
In Kazakhstan, civil society is held back and has had a limited role in the management of the petroleum sector. As this chapter notes, civil society has had little experience of promoting its own interests vis-à-vis the state, and public discussion of natural resource issues has been mainly government-driven. The fact that Kazakhstan made a notable step forward—from being a collapsing socialist economy in the 1990s to becoming a regional economic player with improved social and economic performance—has helped to legitimize non-transparent natural resource policies. As long as the socio-economic situation continues to improve or remains stable, the non-transparent management of natural resources is likely to be accepted by the population, which, like the Russian population, puts a premium on stability. The relative passivity of civil society has been compensated by Kazakhstan’s exposure to international initiatives and organizations such as the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), and numerous UN agencies. As in Azerbaijan, the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) has provided a platform for some civil society engagement with industry and government.
The cyber frontier and digital pitfalls in the Global South
How does digitalisation lead to new kinds of global connections and disconnections in the Global South? And what are the pitfalls that accompany this development? Much of the policy literature on digitalisation and development has focused on the importance of connecting developing countries to digital networks. Good connection to digital networks may have a fundamental impact on societies, changing not only how individuals and businesses navigate, operate and seek opportunities, but also as regards relations between government and the citizenry. However, the rapid pace of this development implies that digital technologies are being put to use before good, functional regulatory mechanisms have been developed and installed. The resultant shortcomings – in state mechanisms, institutions, coordination mechanisms, private mechanisms, general awareness, public knowledge and skills – open the door to new kinds of vulnerabilities. Herein lie dangers, but also opportunities for donor/recipient country exchange. Instead of adding to the already substantial literature on the potential dividends, this article examines a less studied issue: the new societal vulnerabilities emerging from digitalisation in developing countries. While there is wide agreement about the need to bridge the gap between the connected and the disconnected, the pitfalls are many.
Parental Child Abduction and the State: Identity, Diplomacy and the Duty of Care
States alternate between the roles of ‘caretaker’ and ‘rescuer’ when providing care to citizens abroad. This article suggests that they are more likely to assume the ‘rescuer’ role when core values underpinning their self-identity are at stake. This dynamic is explored by examining a case where a Norwegian mother re-abducted her two children from Morocco. In the process, Norway’s foreign minister authorized shielding the children at the Norwegian Embassy in Rabat, citing ‘Norway’s duty to protect two Norwegian minors in fear of their lives’. A diplomatic conflict between Norway and Morocco followed. The Norwegian response must be seen in light of Norway’s self-identity as a frontrunner for children’s rights. Ultimately, helping the children ‘had’ to trump concerns about diplomatic costs. The broader dilemmas that this case exemplifies should be relevant also to other cases where a state’s concern for a child citizen is pitted against its obligation to diplomatic conventions.
Afghanistan: A Political Economy Analysis
This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the current state of Afghanistan, arguing that the Afghan state is fragile, and sustained through constant negotiations over power, resources and ideology. What began as a radical state-building and democratization project in 2001 was soon captured by elites. Some of which engages in semi-formal and informal governance structures to further their influence. Distribution of state revenue, largely from external donors, has been used to secure loyalty and maintain control. This has contributed to extreme state centralization, hampered development of state institutions, failed justice sector reforms, high levels of corruption and reduced government legitimacy, and lately an increase in poverty. On the positive side, access to education and health services has improved, partly due to the strong emphasis placed on the rights of women. The security situation has deteriorated since 2014. At present the government control less than 60 percent of the country and civilian causalities are steadily increasing. Conflicts in Afghanistan are exacerbated by the involvement of its neighbors. To improve security, as well as economic and social development, a negotiated peace settlement is needed. If the conflict is left unresolved (in fear of regional and international security concerns), a slow and steady deterioration of security, and economic and social development, is to be expected.
The Making of a Classic: On Diplomacy 30 Years On.
In this article, Halvard Leira makes the case for On Diplomacy (published in 1987) being a classic in the making of International Relations, and engages the central notion of diplomacy understood as "the mediation of estrangement".