Publications
Avskrekke hvem? Betydningen av strategisk kultur for cybersikkerhet
There is an ongoing debate in academia about if and how deterrence theory may be used in cyberspace. Deterrence was originally a theory developed for avoiding conventional and nuclear war. In the current discussion on cyber security, there has been pointed out a range of technical problems of transferring a theory about the physical world to cyberspace. We recognize these challenges of deterrence in cyberspace, but in this article we want to shed light on a different aspect of deterrence. That is the interplay between social and technical factors of deterrence in cyberspace. In this article we will discuss how deterrence as a strategy in cyberspace is influenced by the specific strategic culture of a country. We will use China as a case study to showcase our argument. Contrasts between Chinese and “Western” strategic culture results in concrete differences in how Chinese and Western countries act in cyberspace. By utilizing four components of deterrence theory (denial, punishment, entanglement and norms), we will show how an in-depth knowledge of a state’s security policy and strategic culture may be used to tailor a more effective deterrence and enforce the capacity of hindering unwanted activity.
Governing complexity in the Arctic region
This book argues that confining our understandings of Arctic governance to Arctic states and a focus on the Arctic Council as the primary site of circumpolar governance provides an incomplete picture. Instead, the authors embrace the complexity of governance in the Arctic by systematically analyzing and comparing the position, interventions, and influence of different actor groups seeking to shape Arctic political and economic outcomes in multiple sites of Arctic politics, both formal and informal. This book assesses the potential that sub-national governments, corporations, civil society organizations, Indigenous peoples, and non-Arctic states possess to develop norms and standards to ensure a stable, rule-based Arctic region.
Make or buy : offshoring of services functions in manufacturing
About 40% of employment in manufacturing is in services functions. This paper examines how employment in services function in manufacturing is affected by offshoring. It finds that the impact is small on average but depends strongly on the complexity of the value chain, the policy environment and ICT maturity. Manufacturing employment is more services intensive the longer the value chain. In-house IT functions complement and support offshored IT functions, while offshored R&D functions tend to replace in-house R&D.
The GeGaLo index: Geopolitical gains and losses after energy transition
This article presents the GeGaLo index of geopolitical gains and losses that 156 countries may experience after a full-scale transition to renewable energy. The following indicators are considered for inclusion in the index: fossil fuel production, fossil fuel reserves, renewable energy resources, governance, and conflict. Some of these represent potential gains; some represent losses; and some the capacity of countries to handle changes in geopolitical strength. Five alternative versions of the index are developed to work out the optimal design. First, the energy resource indicators are combined with equal weights to create two simple versions of the index. Next, governance and conflict indicators are included to create three more complex versions of the index. The index provides useful pointers for strategic energy and foreign policy choices: geopolitical power will be more evenly distributed after an energy transition; Iceland will gain most; Russia may be one of the main holders of stranded geopolitical assets; China and the USA will lose more geopolitically than foreseen by other analyses. The index also indicates a lack of emphasis in parts of the literature on space for renewable energy infrastructure and on domestically sourced coal for the current strength of countries such as China and the United States.
Free trade agreements in a small, open country: The case of Norway
Negotiating free trade agreements (FTAs) has been a high political priority for Norway. Today it has agreements with 41 countries outside the European Union (EU) / the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), resulting one the world’s most extensive FTA networks. FTAs cover about 10% of Norway’s trade – a share likely to increase in the future. These agreements eliminate tariffs on a substantial number of traded products, and have gradually become more comprehensive, covering an expanding range of non-tariff areas. Hence, they may have trade-promoting effects beyond tariff reductions as such. On the other hand, the non-tariff provisions often do not go further than what has already been dealt with in other international agreements or practised domestically, so their overall effect may be limited.
Et ambisiøst fagmilitært råd
An assessment of the Military Advice the Chief of Defence of Norway recently submitted to the Minster of Defence.
Stater og transnasjonale motstandsnettverk: Irans mobilisering av irakiske sjiamilitser etter 1979
The Islamic Republic of Iran has been building a transnational network of Shi’a militias since 1979, commonly referred to as its asymmetric warfare capability and ‘strategic depth’. While it is a known fact that Iran has mobilised Shi’a militias in other countries to strengthen its regional position, how they have done it has not received much scholarly attention. The objective of this paper is to explain this phenomenon by examining how Iran has mobilised Iraqi Shi’a militias since 1979. The selected cases are the mobilisation processes of three most prominent Shi’a militias in Iraq today: Badr Organisation, Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq, and Kata’ib Hizbullah. Although variation exists between them, they are all cases of Iran’s network of armed resistance groups, which have allowed it to engage in covert or indirect conflict intervention in the Middle East. To logically connect the empirical data with the study’s research question, I have used a case study research design, with process tracing and the semi-structured interview as methods for data collection. Furthermore, the empirical analysis has been guided by a theoretical framework that has attempted to build a bridge between the existing literatures on state-militia dynamics and contentious politics.
Improving nuclear strategic stability through a responsibility-based approach
This brief paper brings together several critical elements and key tenets of nuclear weapons policies and postures. There is an urgent need to find mechanisms that would help turn the world’s nuclear weapons capable states from their current increasingly perilous track and provide an incentive for countries to resume discussions on shared security interests. A vital contribution would be for states to agree a globally-shared definition of Nuclear Strategic Stability that accounts for the complexities of the world today. An equally immediate agreement and adoption of the proposed Code of Nuclear Responsibility would foster a responsibility-based approach.
How UN Peacekeeping Operations Can Adapt to a New Multipolar World Order
How will United Nations peacekeeping operations adapt to the transition from a unipolar to a multipolar world order? The paper considers emerging dynamics in three areas that may suggest how UN peacekeeping are likely to be affected by a changing world order, namely strategic political coherence, the employment of force, and the outer limits of peace operations. It points out that one of the enduring characteristics of UN peacekeeping has been the resilience of its identity. Another has been the continuous evolution of the specific manifestations of that identity into practice. UN peacekeeping have thus shown a remarkable capacity to continuously adapt to new challenges over the past 70 plus years, and there is no evidence to suggest that it will not continue to do so into the future.
The Political Economy of Policy Vacuums: The European Commission on Demographic Change
Supranational organisations can only confront politico-economic issues that are recognised as important. Typically, issues gain recognition either when they provide an external shock to the system, shaking political actors into action, or when they are framed as important in policy networks concerned with developing the appropriate scientific approach. Ideally political and scientific actors align in creating pressures to recognise the issue as salient and to mobilise organisational responses. Issues differ in their capacity to be driven by both political and scientific pressures, creating crisis management, technocratic, and reform agenda outcomes. Here we explore a further variation, where pressures around an issue are insufficient, creating a policy vacuum. We examine one such policy vacuum in Europe: demographic change. This issue belongs to no particular Directorate-General in the European Commission, but is subject to policy frames from DG EMPL and DG ECFIN. Without sufficient political and scientific pressures, no particular policy position is occupied and advocated despite recognition of the issue’s importance. We discuss the role of policy vacuums and the need for their identification in political economy research.