Publications
Central Asia is a missing link in analyses of critical materials for the global clean energy transition
The energy transition is causing a surge in demand for minerals for clean energy technologies, giving rise to concerns about the sources and security of supplies of critical materials. Although Central Asia was one of the Soviet Union's main sources of metals and industrial minerals, it has been forgotten in contemporary global critical materials analyses. Here we review the Central Asian mineral resource base and assess its current and potential contributions to global supply chains. We find that the importance of Central Asia lies mainly in the diversity of its mineral base, which includes mineable reserves of most critical materials for clean energy applications. This renders the region important in mineral economics, security of supply, and geopolitical perspectives alike. In sum, Central Asia is likely to become a new hotspot for mineral extraction and a major global supplier of selected critical materials for clean energy technologies.
ECOWAS leaders hold an emergency summit in Ghana after a series of coups on the continent
At an emergency summit in Ghana, West African regional group ECOWAS held off on ramping up penalties on Burkina Faso over its military coup. Last month, it followed Mali and Guinea, to become the third member of the block to undergo a putsch in less than two years. All three have been suspended from ECOWAS, but Burkina Faso, so far, has not faced the crippling trade and economic sanctions. The Burkina Faso Junta have shown willingness to return to constitutional order. However, there remains a wider concern over the number of coups seen in the region in the last couple of years remains. Dr Andrew E. Yaw Tchie discusses ECOWAS´ condemnations and sanctions over the coups and whether this concern is merited.
What is triggering military coups in West Africa?
Western and Central Africa have been rocked by a series of military takeovers in the past 18 months. The coups have reversed democratic gains in a region that's been dubbed the continent's ‘coup belt’. Andrew Tchie, from the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs explains.
Navigating High-Profile and Low Availability: Norway and the Emerging US Maritime-Strategic Approach
Summary: Despite a resurgence of Russian naval power, and subsequent increase in US maritime-strategic interest in the Northern Flank and Norway, the grand return of US naval forces to this region is unlikely. Rather, a combination of four separate but interconnected developments form the basis of a new, albeit unarticulated, US maritime-strategic approach to NATO’s Northern Flank. This policy brief looks at these approaches and give the following recommendations: Strengthen the Norwegian defence and naval budgets. Continue and increase European defence integration and cooperation efforts such as Joint Expeditionary Force. European operational planning should reflect the likelihood of limited US naval assistance in the initial phases of a conflict. Work towards European cooperation on maritime out-of-area operations. Explore the potential of replacing Marine Corps presence in Norway with that of the US Army.
Policy brief summarizing lessons learnt on the EU’s measures to prevent violent extremism in the region
While most research on violent extremism (VE) focuses on why people turn to violence, this policy brief looks at the issue the other way round. We sum up the lessons learnt from our findings on why the majority of those living in enabling environments often choose not to get involved in violence and, against this background, to (re-)consider the EU’s measures for prevention and countering of violent extremism (P/CVE) in the Western Balkans (WB).
Energy, Climate Change and Security: The Russian Strategic Conundrum
Global and regional energy markets are increasingly influenced by policies aimed at climate change mitigation, with possible grave implications for major producers and exporters of fossil fuels – including Russia, which is planning further increases. This article examines the evolution of Russian official thinking on the role of climate change as a strategic factor in policymaking as expressed in key documents on security and in strategic statements made by Presidents Putin and Medvedev (2000–2020). The set of strategic statements examined in this article show surprisingly little attention to this important matter.
Russia and energy crisis in Europe
This lecture was to shed ligh on the perception of Russia's role in the ongoing energy crisis in Europe. The lecture was divided into four parts. In the first Russia role as energy actor was discussed. In the second part details were provided on the ongoing energy crisis in Europe with high gas and electrrity prices, while the third part presented assumptions and data on Russia's role in the crisis. Finaly, part four contained discussion on the role of energy in Russian strategy.
Norwegian Gas in Europe in the 2020’s
This article examines the factors that will influence the position of the Norwegian gas on the market in the 2020’s. Starting with an examination of the historical role of Norway as a gas supplier to the EU, this article maps the role of various factors in shaping framework conditions on the European gas market that can influence the position of the Norwegian gas as an energy source. The main conclusion is that Norway will remain an important supplier of gas until 2030 but may face some serious problems to remain relevant after this date due to possible depletion of gas deposits and increased EU focus on the negative impact of fossil fuels on climate change, the development of a more sustainable energy mix in Europe as well as the emergence of new gas suppliers to Europe, first and foremost LNG that could take higher share of the shrinking gas market in Europe. Development of the cost-effective large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology could alleviate some energy transition related pains and make gas more acceptable as a source of energy, also if the development of hydrogen economy were to materialise. The Norwegian gas could be turned into an important input in green hydrogen, a new promising energy source combining the best of the two energy worlds—the fossil one and the green one.
Security debates and partnership choices in the Nordic states: From differentiation to alignment
Summary: What security challenges do the Nordic states highlight in a fluctuating security environment? Towards which partner institutions, networks and states do they orient themselves, and what role do they envision for further Nordic security and defence cooperation? Focusing on Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden, this report maps and analyses present-day debates on security and defence in these four states. Examining both official positions and perspectives presented in the wider political and media debates in all four states, a key finding is that their perceptions of the security environment and of key partnerships have become more aligned over the past decade. Further, all four states are woven into a complex web of European and transatlantic initiatives, partnerships and institutions in security and defence. While Finland and Sweden remain outside of NATO and Norway and Iceland outside of the EU, the Nordic states’ participation and degree of integration in European and transatlantic structures is more similar than it used to be. We also observe that the four states appear more aligned than before in their views on how Nordic security and defence cooperation should develop in the future, and for what purpose. While it is still premature to talk about a ‘common Nordic order’ in the security and defence domain, in all four states we find that there is interest in and commitment to further strengthening Nordic security and defence cooperation.
The European Maritime Security and Defence Policy Architecture: Implications for Norway
Maritime security is high on the international and European security agenda, hence a number of new initiatives and actions have developed within the EU, NATO and through bilateral/minilateral agreements. To increase the common capabilities of Europe and secure more targeted responses, there is a need for better coordination between different organizations and forums. NATO’s 2022 Strategic Concept and the EU’s parallel Strategic Compass offer an opportunity to do this. Bilateral and minilateral defence groupings can strengthen European maritime security by accelerating capability development and fostering improved levels of interoperability. Norway should further develop its political dialogue and practical cooperation with the EU, and secure participation in major defence initiatives like the EDF and PESCO, various programmes, and cooperative arrangements with the European Defence Agency (EDA). Norway should pursue further leadership roles within NATO to bolster both its national interests and transatlantic security within the maritime security domain. Norway should actively promote enhanced EUNATO cooperation on maritime security issues, including closer alignment of strategic thinking, policies and investments of the two organisations. Mini-lateral’ structures can allow Norway to join forces with like-minded nations to act rapidly on maritime issues of common importance.