Hildegunn Kyvik Nordås
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Hildegunn Kyvik Nordås was a Research Professor (part time) at NUPI until the summer of 2024. She worked on trade and trade policy issues, focusing on the interaction between trade policy, trade, technology and labour market adjustments.
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This report is in Norwegian only. During 30 years, Norway has participated in the EU internal market via the EEA (European Economic Area) agreement. According to available research, this has led to a strong increase in trade and a real income gain of about 2-6%. On top of this, there are other gains, for example administrative cost savings due to common rules in the EEA, and welfare gains due to common environmental standards in Europa. The EEA agreement is unique by having an extensive set of common rules that are continuously updated. Thousands of EEA rules are part of national laws and practice that people and firms meet every day without necessarily knowing that they are due to the EEA. The eastern enlargement from 2004 extended the EEA into an integrated and growing market with more than 500 million inhabitants and has led to economic and social convergence in Europe since the new members have trebled their incomes. Migrants from the new member Norway have high work participation rates and currently represent about ¼ of immigrants in Norway. The EU is still clearly Norway’s largest partner with about 60% for trade as well as investment. Within the EEA, trade with and between the new member states has grown fastest. For trade in goods, the EEA has led to a seamless common market for the sectors that are included. Also for services, the EEA has led to stronger integration but differences between national regulations still impede trade. Completion of the internal market for services is important for small and medium-sized enterprises, and important to create efficient value chains in Norway and Europe. During the EEA period, Norway had a sizeable terms-of-trade gain due to stronger price growth for exports than for imports. Trade within as well as beyond the EEA contributed to this. During recent years, the EU has modified the rulebook on state aid, partly motivated by the green transition and subsidies in China and the USA. This leads to a new industrial policy, with new forms of cooperation where EFTA may participate, however with some challenges. Digitalisation has created new global challenges where the EU plays a leading role as regulator, with impact also for the EEA. In particular, common regulations in telecommunication have led to considerable gains and contributed to competitive digital services. In the new trade policy climate, the borderline between what is inside and outside the EEA becomes more blurred. An example is climate policy, where Norway through the EEA participates in the EU emission quota trading system but it is not yet clear whether Norway should introduce EUs carbon tax on imports from third countries (CBAM). Cooperation with the EU increasingly affects trade policy viz. third countries, where EFTA traditionally had autonomy. The new geopolitics also create trade policy challenges not covered by the EEA, where the EU introduces new measures while EFTA does not have a clear response. In some areas, for example export restrictions and sanctions, Norway has an ever-closer cooperation with the EU.
Shocking times for European economic integration (EUROSHOCKS)
European integration has recently been hit by various shocks such as Brexit, Trump’s trade wars, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the competition from China. This project will exploit these shocks to genera...
Regulatory barriers to trade in services: A new database and composite indices
This paper presents new data on services trade regulation for 46 countries in 22 services sectors over 6 years (2014–2019). The data consist of qualitative information which is scored and weighted to produce composite indices. They cover market access and national treatment restrictions with respect to all GATS modes of supply, but also behind the border domestic regulation such as licensing, non‐transparent regulatory procedures and competition policy. The database is updated annually. The trade restrictiveness indices (STRIs) are significantly correlated with services trade flows, but also with the performance of the sectors subject to the restrictions including logistics performance indicators, interest spreads, density of ATMs and secure servers, broadband penetration and outcomes such as legal rights and the time to resolve insolvency.
Impact of Digital Technologies and the Fourth Industrial Revolution on Trade In Services
Digital technologies are cutting trade costs for services, turning more services from non-tradables into tradables, and putting trade in services on a stronger relative growth path than trade in goods. Digital enablement of services depends on inputs of cross-border data flows, which are themselves growing exponentially. The shift to the digital economy has intensified during the COVID-19 pandemic as goods producers connect with customers via online platforms, and services like health, education, and entertainment are delivered online. Purchasing services offshore is not far behind, so e-service trade will likely continue to accelerate. However, regulatory frameworks are lagging, putting productivity gains at risk. We offer eight recommendations to the Group of Twenty (G20) leaders to start shaping a trade policy agenda for a digital future. For every nation to reap the benefits of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, sustained openness to international services trade, investment, and data flows is essential.
Gender and Labour Market Adjustment to Trade: The Case of India
Standing at 24% in 2018, India’s female labour force articipation is only half of the global average (48%). At the same time, India has one of the widest gender wage gaps in the world and women are less likely to be employed in the formal sector compared to men. This study focuses on the role of international trade as a source of increased competitive pressure in domestic markets, and how it affects relative wages and formal employment between men and women. Using the Revealed Symmetrical Comparative Advantage index, sectors of comparative advantage and disadvantage are identified and matched on Indian labour force surveys that contain information on sectoral employment and earnings. We find that sectors of comparative advantage in services have the lowest gender wage gap, with women earning 24% less than their male counterpart, while women in manufacturing earned on average 40% less than male workers. The Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition shows that the total gender wage gap in sectors of comparative advantage in services are minor while it is quite substantial in manufacturing, regardless of the comparative advantage. The study concludes that trade goes hand in hand with a smaller gender wage gap in the services sectors as it allows women to leverage their skills better than in manufacturing.
Responsible Innovation and Happiness: A New Approach to the Effects of ICTs (HAPPY)
The project intends to contribute to the responsible innovation literature by carrying out a set of conceptual and empirical studies on the socio-economic effects of ICTs, considering positive impacts...
Telecommunications: the underlying transport means for services exports
This paper analyses the role of telecommunications as a means of transport for services exports with a focus on computer and other business services in India. Telecommunications are typically dominated by major suppliers which need to be regulated and exposed to competition to fulfil their role. This paper notes that India took sweeping unilateral reforms in the telecommunications sector in the 1990s but has been reluctant to bind reforms in international trade agreements. It goes on to show that India is lagging as compared to other lower middle-income countries on international measures of connectivity, and that connectivity is strongly related to timely adjustment of policy to changing market conditions and technology. Second, using gravity estimates, it has been found that connectivity is an important driver for trade in computer and other business services. In particular, broadband connectivity significantly reduces the rate at which exports fall off with distance and extends the reach of exports to distant markets.
Make or buy: offshoring of services functions in manufacturing
About 40% of employment in manufacturing is in services functions. This paper develops a measure of narrow outsourcing: the matching of services functions that are performed by workers who are inside manufacturing firms to the same services functions that are provided by outside suppliers. Narrow outsourcing is entered into labour demand functions where labour is classified by business functions. The impact of narrow offshoring on manufacturing labour demand is small on average but depends strongly on the complexity of the value chain, the policy environment, and ICT maturity. The IT and R&D functions are most sensitive to offshoring.
Covid-19 og globalisering: Et fattigdomsperspektiv på turisme og inntektsoverføring fra migranter
This brief is in Norwegian.
Digital Technologies, Services and the Fourth Industrial Revolution
The increasingly rapid uptake of digital technologies is launching the global economy into the ‘Fourth Industrial Revolution’ and the next transformative wave of globalisation. Trade in merchandise is in long-run relative decline; trade in services, especially e services, is on a long-term relative upward trend - and associated cross-border data flows are growing exponentially. These structural shifts, and their impacts on competitiveness, are set to intensify. The G20 must assert a leadership role by signalling best practice policy and regulatory settings, including sustained openness to international trade, investment and data flows, so every nation can reap the productivity gains of the digital age. This Working Paper has been prepared as background for a short Policy Brief for the 2020 THINK20 Taskforce 1: Trade and Investment.