Publications
Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: Central African Republic
In this new Fact Sheet from the joint NUPI and SIPRI Climate-related Peace and Security Risks Project (CPSR). The research team explore the nexus between climate change, peace and security.
The Abe Legacy
With the terrible assassination of former Prime minister of Japan, Abe Shinzo, an important, but not always uncontroversial, political era in Japan is over. As the longest serving Prime minster, he leaves an important legacy in Japanese politics, but also in relation to the role he wanted Japan to play on the global scene. Based on the 99th Stockholm Seminar on Japan, two invited experts, Dr. Wrenn Yennie Lindgren and Dr. Richard Nakamura, share their views on the international political, as well as economic implications of the passing of Abe in this policy brief.
Navigating ASEAN-Myanmar Relations: The Phnom Penh Summit as a Critical Juncture for (Dis)Engagement
This article considers recent internal developments in Myanmar and how they strain external relations with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). It identifies ASEAN’s Phnom Penh Summit as a critical juncture for disengaging the military government, engaging non-political entities and upgrading the 2021 Five-Point Consensus.
The Amazon rainforest and the global–regional politics of ecosystem governance
This article examines the global–regional politics of ecosystem governance through the case of the Amazon rainforest. Despite the bourgeoning literature on global and regional environmental politics, the interplay of these dynamics in ecosystem governance has still received limited attention. I here propose that the politics of ecosystem governance are rooted in a dispute over the realization of alternative ecosystem services. When global actors become invested in promoting ecosystem preservation to secure the realization services with diffuse benefits, it can affect cooperation at the regional level. Ecosystem-adjacent states can perceive external interest as a threat, building regional cooperation as a tool to defend sovereignty, but also as an opportunity, using it to bargain the terms of their stewardship. I use this framework to trace the evolution of regional cooperation in the Amazon, demonstrating how it was developed in response to this ecosystem's growing global salience. Through defensive sovereignty and bargained stewardship, regional cooperation helped Amazon states to cap international commitment and limit external influence in the region but also allowed for building some form of coordinated ecosystem protection. The research sheds new light on both the potential and the limitations of global–regional engagements for the preservation of the Amazon and other analogous cross-border ecosystems.
Norway needs energy and security policy coherence
Prior to 2022, Norwegian policymakers have hardly considered coherence between energy and security, and the few coordinating elements in place are focused on emergency preparedness. • Keeping policy areas separate and energy de-securitized has helped improve Norway’s position in the old energy world. However, both the progressing European energy transition and new geopolitical threats from Russia increasingly challenge this arrangement. • Lack of policy coherence makes Norwegian governance less effective in dealing both with sudden shocks, like the Nord Stream sabotage, and long-term stress factors, like climatic change. • Formalized coordination mechanisms between ministries and agencies are necessary and will increase both governance effectiveness and accountability. • Existing agency level collaboration on emergency preparedness may be a starting point. • A transition requires significant institutional reorganization which may be difficult to achieve. Old structures and agencies may not support security issues connected to a new kind of energy system.
The end of stability - how Burkina Faso fell apart
Not so long-ago Burkina Faso was considered an ‘island’ of stability in a conflict-prone part of Africa. This is not the case anymore as armed insurgencies have caused widespread insecurity. While spill-over effects from the conflict in Mali clearly play a role, we argue that the sudden demise of the rule and regime of Blaise Compaoré also is an important contributing factor. To decipher to what extent regime transition shaped the current state of affairs, we show that what kept Burkina Faso stable and out of the conflicts in the region was a ‘big man deep state’ of formal and informal networks of security provisions. When this ‘deep state’ vanished with the ousting of Compaoré and his allies, local security providers have sought new solutions, and this strengthened the role of self-defence militias but also led them to compete against each other, at times also violently. This provided fertile terrain for jihadi insurgents. Therefore, this paper is an attempt to provide a conceptual understanding of how weak rulers actually rule, how some succeed in preserving their rule for a lengthy period of time, and what can happen when they eventually fall.
The Sheikh versus the president: the making of Imam Dicko as a political Big Man in Mali
In the lead up to the military coup in Mali in August 2020, Imam Dicko Mahmoud Dicko solidified his status as one of the country’s most important power brokers. How did a religious leader achieve this is a country where politics is considered ‘dirty’, the social capital of religious leaders’ rests on being seen as honest and pious, and politics and religion are considered constitutionally separate? Drawing on recent work in African Studies that utilises the classical ‘Big Man’ concept of Marshall Sahlins, this article tracks the political engagement of religious leaders with a particular focus on the political career of Imam Dicko. We document both his failures and how he learned to play politics without tarnishing his image as a pious man of God. We argue that Dicko’s hybrid mix of theology and politics led his followers into new terrains that even the secular opposition could buy in to. In turn, this opens up space for Salafi actors to navigate the straits between resistance and collaboration with the state.
The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank: from institutional anchors of liberalism to geopolitical rivalry
The IMF and the World Bank are not only amongst the world's most powerful international institutions, but they also represent the most visible institutional anchors of the liberal post-Second World War order. This may be about to change because the IMF and the World Bank are economic institutions and, thereby, bound to reflect global economic realities. And, from an economic perspective, these realities have for quite some time indicated a world that increasingly moves in a multipolar direction. The turn to economic multipolarity has followed in the wake of increased Great Power rivalry between the United States and China. This chapter charts out these developments and how they have affected and IMF and the World Bank, and what consequences this may have for these institutions and the type of global leaderships that they seek to set.
Net-zero or phase out? Stakeholder views on just transitions pathways for oil and gas in Norway
In this policy brief, authors David Jordhus-Lier, Camilla Houeland, Heikki Eidsvoll Holmås, Kacper Szulecki, Peder Ressem Østring and Kendra Dupuy document how policy makers and representatives of businesses and civil society organisations (including trade unions and environmental groups) have outlined pathway scenarios towards net-zero carbon emissions and a phase-out vision for the Norwegian oil and gas industry. The authors have developed these two scenarios participating in a focus group based on a so-called ‘backcasting’ exercise. There is perceived acceptance for the notion of net-zero emissions by 2050 from social actors involved in the Norwegian oil and gas industry. If this goal is to be reached with a science-based approach, however, deep-seated transformations in the global energy system will be needed, as well as concerted efforts by the Norwegian government and from other social actors. Specific targets for the electrification of offshore installations, the roll-out of large-scale offshore wind power and technologies for capturing, using and storing carbon on the Norwegian Continental Shelf are key milestones in this scenario. The main actors required to take responsibility for this pathway are the Norwegian state, in close tripartite dialogue with labour and capital, but also with institutional mechanisms that ensure the participation of local communities and civil society organisations. The net-zero pathway faces a series of obstacles. Among them are popular resistance to new renewable energy projects, increasing electricity prices and the risk this poses to plans for the electrification of offshore installations.
Utfordrende kunnskapssamarbeid: Etiske og sikkerhetsrelaterte utfordringer som forskere og kunnskapsinstitusjoner i Norge møter i internasjonale sa...
This report presents results from a study of ethical- and security-related challenges that researchers and research institutions in Norway face and handle in their international collaborations. The report is in Norwegian only.