Publications
Assessing the Effectiveness of the Multinational Joint Task Force
The overall assessment is that the MNJTF is, to a degree, effectively attaining its mandate priorities. As a result of the efforts of the MNJTF there is a decline in the number of terrorist attacks and fatalities in the region.
NATO and the Invasion, One Year On
Next year will mark 75 years since NATO was founded in 1949. The Atlantic alliance has faced many challenges over seven decades, but Russia’s war of conquest in Ukraine might be its biggest test yet.
Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: Afghanistan
In this updated Fact Sheet from the joint NUPI and SIPRI Climate-related Peace and Security Risks Project (CPSR) team explore the nexus between climate change, peace and security in Afghanistan. Afghanistan is highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change with more frequent extreme weather events and temperatures that are increasing faster than the global average. These factors, coupled with the legacy of four decades of war, a complex humanitarian emergency and an economic crisis since the Taliban’s takeover of the government in August 2021, have heightened the vulnerability of the Afghan population. •Climate-related extreme weather events and natural hazards threaten Afghan livelihoods, increase poverty and food insecurity, and erode the resilience of communities, households and individuals •Climate change and environmental stressors contribute to widespread internal displacement and changing migration patterns. Displacement and rapid urbanization can exacerbate food and livelihood insecurity, place additional pressure on environmental resources and increase the vulnerability of marginalized groups, particularly women and girls. •In a security landscape that continues to be marked by the presence of armed actors, climate change may heighten the risk of local conflicts over land and water resources. •In the absence of an inclusive governance system, local natural resource competition and conflict elevate the risks for marginalized social groups and can exacerbate political and economic inequality.
Covid-19 and the Russian Regional Response: Blame Diffusion and Attitudes to Pandemic Governance
As was the case with other federal states, Russia’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic was decentralized and devolved responsibility to regional governors. Contrary to the common highly centralized governance in Russia, this approach is thought to have helped insulate the government from criticism. Using local research and analysis based on a national representative survey carried out at the height of the pandemic during the summer of 2021, the article charts the public response to the pandemic across Russia. It examines the regionalization of the response, with an in-depth focus on two of the Russian cities with the highest infection rates but differing responses to the pandemic: St. Petersburg and Petrozavodsk. There are two main findings: at one level, the diffusion of responsibility meant little distinction was made between the different levels of government by the population; at another level, approval of the pandemic measures was tied strongly to trust levels in central and regional government.
Navigating Breakup: Security realities of freezing politics and thawing landscapes in the Arctic
Russia’s re-invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has had immediate and ongoing effects for Arctic security and cooperative governance at both a regional and international level. The region is impacted by the increased sanctions, the withdrawal of Western companies from Russia, the Western disconnect from energy dependencies, and has also witnessed an increase in hybrid security incidents. In addition, climate change continues at to change the environment at a staggering pace in the north. This report is an input to the Arctic Security Roundtable (ASR) and the Munich Security Conference, February 2023. It provides insights into both established and novel drivers of change in Arctic and security governance. Chapters cover the impacts of climate change on the physical environment, human security and the Arctic region’s military operational environment, and review the regional security policies of the three major powers (USA, China and Russia). The report argues leaders must continue to address Arctic governance challenges and take concrete steps to mitigate and manage risks, regardless of the cessation of cooperation with Russia and the radical uncertainty shaping the broader political environment.
The EU Trapped in the Venezuelan Labyrinth: Challenges to Finding a Way Out
This report explores how EU Foreign and Security Policy towards the political crisis in Venezuela can be assessed against the backdrop of diverging positions within the EU and as well as between the EU, the United States and other powers. The EU’s Venezuela policy has been anchored in three main pillars: first, supporting dialogue platforms between the government and the opposition; second, sanctioning the Maduro regime to force it to negotiate; and third, providing humanitarian aid helping neighbouring countries’ attend to the massive migratory flow of Venezuelans. Intra-EU contestation was linked to the recognition of opposition leader Guaidó as Venezuela’s interim president in 2019, but has eased since the EU dropped its recognition in 2021. Multipolar competition, and how it plays into patterns of regional fragmentation, has been another significant obstacle to the EU achieving its main foreign policy goal of free, fair and democratic elections. In the future, the EU approach should build on the renewed consensus between member states and focus on mediation, conditional sanctions relief, electoral observation, parliamentary diplomacy, support for regional governance and interregional cooperation.
The China Policy During Søreide’s Tenure as Foreign Minister (2017–2021): Familiar Tracks and New Conflict Lines
The period with Ine Eriksen Søreide serving as foreign minister (2017–2021) provides an exciting window into the development of Norwegian China-policies. After a six-year freeze in the political relations between Norway and China, Søreide took on the task of normalizing the relationship and navigating it into a time characterized by sharpened conflicts. In this article, we seek answers to two central questions: how did the China-policies evolve during these years, and what explains the turn towards more security- and value-oriented measures in the second half of the period? We combine theories and explanations emphasizing the role of institutional stability, stepwise political change, and structural, international influence.
Special Issue on the Evolving Nature of African-Led Peace Support Operations and African Armies
Key Questions • How has the evolution of African-led PSOs on the continent shaped Africa’s security response to insecurity? • How has African-led PSO influenced the identity of African armies and their responses to insecurity in Africa over the last two decades? • Does the experience of African-led PSOs drive military actors' decision-making during times of crisis? What impact (if any) does African-led PSO have on African military professionalism?
Sverige, Finland og NATO
Våre naboland Sverige og Finland har alltid stått utenfor forsvarsalliansen NATO, men da Russland angrep Ukraina, endret svensk og finsk forsvarspolitikk seg på kort tid. Hvor hender det? snakker med seniorforsker Kristin Haugevik fra NUPI om NATO, og om Sverige og Finlands vei mot et mulig medlemskap. Programleder: Therese Leine, senior kommunikasjonsrådgiver hos Norsk Utenrikspolitisk Institutt (NUPI)
Emigrant external voting in Central-Eastern Europe after EU enlargement
The European Union's Eastern Enlargement of 2004–2007 triggered a large wave of migration. While the influence of Central-Eastern European (CEE) migrants on Western European politics has been studied, the impact of outward migration and political remittances “sent” by expatriates remain unexplored, despite the salience of democratic backsliding and populist politics in the region. We ask how external voting among migrants differs from electoral results in homelands over time, drawing on an original dataset gathering voting results among migrants from six CEE countries in fifteen Western European host countries. Using models estimated with Bayesian ordinary least squares regression, we test three hypotheses: two related to the disparity of diaspora votes from homeland party systems over time; and one to the ideological leanings of diasporas. We observe a growing discrepancy and note that diaspora votes follow the ideological fluctuations in the country of origin but distort it, with CEE migrants voting for more liberal and more economically right-wing parties than voters ‘at home’.