Publications
Small states coalition building in EU policy-making The cases of the Nordic and Baltic countries
Forming coalitions in various forms and shapes – institutionalized or ad hoc without any permanent structures, territorially constituted, i.e., consisting of countries from one region, or theme based – has become an important tool for small- and medium-sized EU member states in order to increase their political weight and impact in EU policy-making. On the basis of a conceptional and theoretical framework that distinguishes between different types of coalitions and the Baltic and Nordic EU member states as case studies, this chapter analyzes the use of coalitions for small states in an EU context along a number of examples of mainly regional coalitions. One important finding is that for defending their national interests Nordic and Baltic EU members’ governments overall seem to prefer flexible, issue-specific intergovernmental, non-institutionalized ad hoc coalitions consisting of a smaller number of like-minded countries. In contrast, while in the academic literature institutionalized coalitions and alliances are often labelled as the highest category of coalitions and indeed are good for informal consultations in a Nordic-Baltic context, in practice they do not seem to be preferred by these countries’ governments for negotiations in EU policy-making because of being not flexible enough or too small in terms of members.
Norwegian public’s attitudes to foreign policy in 2024: a status quo nation in a time of global turmoil
What is the Norwegian public’s opinion on the state of the world? And what foreign policy does it want the Norwegian government to pursue? In this report, we present the findings from an opinion poll conducted by Sentio for NUPI in the period 18 to 24 April 2024. The global landscape is deeply unsettled, and we find ourselves in an era marked by considerable uncertainty about future developments in world politics. The great power rivalry between the United States and China is intensifying, the war in Ukraine continues to rage, the war in Gaza is causing immense human suffering and having major ramifications for the Middle East, and the effects of global warming are becoming increasingly apparent. The Norwegian government has warned through, for example, its intelligence service’s annual report on security threats, that Norway is facing its most serious security situation in decades.1 However, a key finding in our report is that the Norwegian public is somewhat measured in its assessments and considers the general threat level for Norway to be moderate, i.e. at a normal level. This suggests that the government’s actions have minimal impact on public opinion on world politics. The public’s failure to grasp the severity of the security situation is both surprising and alarming, as is its disregard for official communications about the geopolitical threats facing Norway. Against the backdrop of limited crisis comprehension, we see a relatively stable development in the Norwegian public’s attitudes to foreign policy since 2021, with the notable exception of attitudes to Russia, which have clearly hardened. NUPI conducted similar studies in 2020 and in connection with the general election in 2021,2 and in this report, we have asked many of the same questions as previously, in addition to some new ones. We therefore take this opportunity to compare our findings with the previous studies where appropriate, to gauge the extent of change in public opinion. This report and the survey it presents is financed by the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung.
Reinforcing Trust, Evoking Nostalgia and Contrasting China: Japan's Foreign Policy Repertoire and Identity Construction in Myanmar
In the immediate aftermath of the military coup in Myanmar in February 2021, Western countries and the EU condemned the coup, imposed targeted sanctions against military leaders and military-owned companies, and redirected essential humanitarian aid to NGOs. Japan, however, chose to neither align with its democratic allies nor completely suspend its aid. Despite a long and complicated pre-war history and limited engagement after 1988, Japan-Myanmar relations experienced a resurgence between 2012 and 2021. This article contends that one key driving force in contemporary relations is identity construction. Drawing on the literature on relational identity and foreign policy repertoires, the article demonstrates how the discursive statements and embodied practices of a network of Japanese identity entrepreneurs activate, negotiate, and renegotiate the identities of the Japanese Self and its Others. Through an analysis of interviews conducted with elite stakeholders in Myanmar and Japan, the article studies Japan’s constructed identity as an economic great power and post-war development pioneer, peace promoter, and diplomatic mediator. It finds that Japan constructs its identity temporally in terms of nostalgia (natsukashisa) and a longing for a time when Japan was a post-war industrial powerhouse, but also spatially in terms of Japan’s legal, moral, and industrial superiority over other countries involved in Myanmar’s development, in particular vis-à-vis China.
US and UK Elections: Implications for NATO and Northern European Security
Elections on both sides of the Atlantic have highlighted diverging views and increasing tensions over the importance of the security alliance, which celebrates its 75th anniversary this year. The most impactful election will undoubtedly take place in the United States, where the two candidates present Europe with remarkably different challenges. The re-election of President Joseph Biden to a second consecutive term in office will largely represent continuity albeit few clear incentives to undertake the transformational changes necessary for Europe to adapt to an increasingly volatile security landscape. On the other hand, if former President Donald Trump secures a second term in the Oval Office, Europeans could see their transatlantic security alliance thrown into turmoil and could be forced to consider difficult and uncomfortable steps to strengthen their own security. Voters will also head to the polls across Europe, including in the highly anticipated European Parliament elections, which will shape the composition of the next iteration of EU institutions. However, most notable for Northern European security will be elections in the United Kingdom on July 4th, which could lead to a change in the governing party for the first time in 14 years. A recent commitment by Downing Street to increase defence spending to 2.5 % by 2030 – reaching £87 billion in that year – has upped the ante towards its Labour opposition, which has suggested a similar increase but without providing a specific timeframe. As the NATO Alliance prepares for a 75th anniversary celebration in Washington, DC, questions loom regarding its capacity to deter a potentially emboldened Russia, particularly considering the Kremlin’s recent advances in the war in Ukraine, now entering its third year. This analysis assesses the implications of the upcoming elections on both sides of the Atlantic. It combines perspectives from the United States, the United Kingdom, and Norway, and assesses implications for NATO, the ongoing war in Ukraine, and future security in Northern Europe.
United Nations Truce Supervision Organization Role, Relevance, Function, and Utility – Lessons for Future Peace Operations
The aim of the study is, firstly, to assess the role, relevance, function, and utility of UNTSO, and secondly, to identify what lessons can be learnt from UNTSO’s model and experience that can help to inform the future of UN peace operations in the context of the UN Secretary-General’s policy brief on a New Agenda for Peace, as well as in the preparations for the Summit of the Future. The effectiveness of peace operations is dependent on the political backing, financial support, and deployment of trained peacekeepers by the UN Member States. While recognising the important roles of the UN missions, the UN Secretariat, host states, and other key stakeholders and contributors, the primary audience for the present study’s findings and recommendations is the UN Security Council and UN Member States. Although the study is primarily focused on UN peace operations, it is suggested that the findings can also be informative for strengthening the role of observers in other organisations, including regional organisations, and can enhance cooperation between different organisations in dealing with peace and security issues. As outlined in Our Common Agenda, an emerging “networked multilateral system” requires enhanced and specialised capabilities, and broader thinking for wider application and cooperation beyond the immediate organisation and structure of current peace operations.
Grand Bassa and the 50/50 tax pilot: “A brilliant idea, but…”
This research note examines the implementation of property tax in Liberia. Based on original fieldwork data, the note analyses taxpayers' perceptions of the new tax system in the light of their experiences with public services, development projects and the political system.
The Arctic Barometer: Measuring Expert Predictions on the Arctic Region
Making predictions in a highly uncertain environment is always a hazardous enterprise. Confronted with global warming, the future of the Arctic region has been often debated, both in terms of the scope and the speed of expected changes, including the future of resource development, the opening of shipping routes, and the evolution of multilateral fora. These predictions have come from different sources: governments through different policy papers and statements, the media, civil society, and academics, to name but a few. It can be difficult to account for this vast and diverse array of predictions, considering that each actor has interests to promote. We decided to develop a survey asking different actors to make predictions about possible Arctic geopolitical developments. Instead of letting individuals make their own predictions on the topic of their choice, we selected plausible scenarios and prompted respondents to evaluate if these developments were likely or unlikely to happen. Scenarios were developed to be both visible and concrete: we can evaluate if the scenario unfolded or not during a certain time period. For example, we can observe if Russia violated the airspace of another Arctic state, if Greenland reached state sovereignty, or if the U.S. deployed a freedom of navigation operations in the Arctic region. In total, our scenarios covered two dimensions: governance and security. On governance, potential developments around diplomatic initiatives or multilateral cooperation were tested. On security, the possibility of military conflict in the region or of military intrusions were considered. Two main objectives justified this approach. First, we wanted to evaluate if experts were correct in their predictions. Related to this, we were curious to know which type of issues caused incorrect assessments. Second, we repeated the same scenarios in multiple waves: the objective was to analyze if specific geopolitical developments occurring between waves would change predictions, moving the needle on experts’ predictions
Stuxnet - et paradigmeskifte?
More than a decade after Stuxnet was made publicly known, it remains the most vigorous example of a cyber attack causing both serious kinetic damage and as means to assert political pressure. Based on an analysis of the operation and its aftermath, this chapter argues that Stuxnet represents a paradigm shift. In view of advancements made to develop offensive and defensive cyber capabilities, particularly in the US, Israel and Iran, the shift refers to how states understand and use cyber capabilities during times of conflict. We illustrate how cyber operations can in certain contexts function as a supplement between diplomacy and the use of military means, but also in some cases as a substitute for conventional military force.
Verden vil til Arktis – hva vil vi?
Denne rapporten er et sammendrag av Utenriksdepartementets Respons-konferanse som ble avholdt i samarbeid med UiT den 13. mai 2024. Konferansen startet med åpningsinnlegg fra UiT-rektor Dag Rune Olsen og Tromsøs ordfører Gunnar Wilhelmsen, samt en tale fra Utenriksminister Espen Barth Eide. Etter dette fulgte tre bolker med talere som ga ulike analyser av og innspill til norsk utenrikspolitikk. I del 1 – Arktis møter verden – deltok Camilla Brekke, Stian Bones, Morten Høglund, Gunn-Britt Retter, Luna Drecker, Gøril Johansen og Odd Emil Ingebrigtsen. I del 2 – Russland i ny arktisk sikkerhetspolitisk kontekst – innledet statssekretær Eivind Vad Petersson fra Utenriksdepartementet. Deretter bidro Kari Aga Myklebost, Arild Moe, Julie Wilhelmsen, Hans-Jacob Bønå og Terje Aunevik med analyser. Siste bolk – Samarbeid i nord – militært og sivilt – ble åpnet med innlegg fra statssekretær i kommunal- og distriktsdepartementet Sigrun Wiggen Prestbakmo og Sjef Hæren, Generalmajor Lars S. Lervik. Deretter deltok Carina Sammeli, Dan Koivulaasko, Gunnhild Hoogensen Gjørv, Nils-Ole Foshaug, Njord Wegge og Petter Bjørkli i debatt, før Utenriksministeren avrundet seminaret med å svare på spørsmål fra publikum. Moderator for dagen var Jan-Gunnar Winther. Resten av denne rapporten er en sammenstilling av de viktigste budskapene som ble fremført i seminarets ulike bolker.
«Møte med NATOs generalsekretær Jens Stoltenberg og utenriksminister Anniken Huitfeldt»
Den norske Atlanterhavskomité og Utenriksdepartementet inviterte til foredrag og samtale med NATOs generalsekretær Jens Stoltenberg og utenriksminister Anniken Huitfeldt i Gamle Logen. Anledningen var NATOs uformelle utenriksministermøte som fant sted i Oslo den samme uken. Invitasjonsteksten reiste følgende overordnede spørsmål: Hva står på spill for transatlantisk og norsk sikkerhet i en verden preget av stormaktsrivalisering og krig? Hvilken virkning vil Finlands og Sveriges NATO-medlemskap ha for Norges nærområder og for NATO som helhet? Hvordan skal vi verne om vestlige, demokratiske verdier i møte med stadig flere autoritære krefter som finner sammen i et tettere og mer forpliktende samarbeid? Arrangementet startet med korte innledninger fra Huitfeldt og Stoltenberg, etterfulgt av panelsamtale ledet av Kate Hansen Bundt. Til sist fikk Halvor Tjønn (frilansjournalist), Robin Allers (IFS) og Karsten Friis (NUPI) stille forberedte spørsmål fra salen.